Ideas for sox Rotation in 06

[a700hitter]

I'd be very surprised if you were sober when you posted that.

I don't know if I am leaving anyone out, but assuming Wells gets traded, I have 11 locks for the pitching staff. If Millwood gets signed Arroyo or Clement get moved.

 

1. Schilling

2. Beckett

3. Wake

4. Arroyo

5. Clement

6. Papelbon

7. Mota

8. Foulke

9. Timlin

10. Seanez

11. DiNardo

 

I doubt that they will take more than 11 pitchers north in April. Who would Lester replace?

[ORS]

140 innings at the ML level is a little different. Hitters at the ML level are more selective. His pitch count in 140 ML innings will be equate to several more innings at the AA level.

Good point. I think his inning count will be a function of his effectiveness. He's going to be on a pretty strict pitch count in each start, so how many innings he gets will depend on how deep into the game he can get on 100 pitches.

[Beckett95]

lester could replace dinardo if he fails to get lefties out.

[riverside sluggers]

I don't know if I am leaving anyone out, but assuming Wells gets traded, I have 11 locks for the pitching staff. If Millwood gets signed Arroyo or Clement get moved.

 

1. Schilling

2. Beckett

3. Wake

4. Arroyo

5. Clement

6. Papelbon

7. Mota

8. Foulke

9. Timlin

10. Seanez

11. DiNardo

 

I doubt that they will take more than 11 pitchers north in April. Who would Lester replace?

 

Like we saw this past season and others before it, relief pitchers who become a walking bomb in the pen for us in the first half have been cut or traded away. But in that instance, the Sox would probably rather call up Manny or Hansen over Lester. He'll no doubt have a call up in the 2nd half, but at what time is what we will have to wait and see for.

 

Also an obvious being call ups when one of our guys "knock on wood" gets hurt

[Beckett95]

top 5 guys that would be called up for any reason

 

1. Delcarmen

2. Hansen

3. Lester

4. Cla Merideth

5. Edgar Martinez

[elsrbueno]

My two cents:

We know Milwood's no longer an option, and assuming Wells is not an option (he's either traded or retires) and we lose out on Clemens, we've got the following POTENTIAL starters:

 

Schilling

Beckett

Wakefield

Arroyo

Clement

Papelbon

 

I'd really like to see Papelbon start the season in the bullpen for 2 reasons:

1. I'm still not convinced our pen is strong enough (albeit stronger than last season)

2. I'd like to see him broken in softly this season. With Beckett and Schilling in the rotation and health risks, Papelbon is going to get starts.... but like others have already said we shouldn't wear out Johnny's arm at this point. We forget just how little experience this kid has at the big leagues, and breaking him in as a setup man IMO is the best option.

 

That having been said, trading Wells and NOT receiving a starter in return (which seems to be our fate) leaves us with just 5 starters if you put Papelbon in the bullpen. There goes the pitching depth the Sox have been rumored to have this offseason. At this point, with Jeff Weaver really and truly the best free agent on the market, if I'm the Red Sox I take a different approach to the rotation and sign some low risk (meaning money), high reward guys in hopes that they'll fill out the rotation. Hey-- that's how the Sox got Bronson Arroyo and David Ortiz and look how THEY turned out.

 

If I'm in Jed (or Ben)'s shoes, here's who I'm talking to:

 

Wade Miller. Remember it was reported that this guy felt like he owed the Sox something after last season, and a similar contract to last season ($1.5 base with incentives) is a worthwhile gamble.

 

Jose Lima. Why Jose Lima? Why not. If he'll sign an incentive laden deal (and why wouldn't he at this point) he's a very low risk move. He's got tons of energy and a fierce competitor-- who knows, the hungry Boston fans may give him some additonal motivation.

 

Darren Dreifort. Who? OK OK, this is a longshot. Injuries and ineffectiveness have riddled this guy's career for the past 5 years, and there's very little indication that will change in 2005. But before the arm trouble he was a decent pitcher.

 

Tony Armas. A Red Sox farmhand believe it or not, seemingly attracting very little interest and for pretty good reason. He walks too many guys, doesn't dominate (low K/9 and K/BB ratings), and if he can't succeed in Montreal or Washington, pitchers' parks in the NL, what evidence is there to suggest he might turn it around in Boston? None that I can see. But on a minor league deal, what have the Sox got to lose? He's 28 (almost), and SOMETIMES a change of scenery does a talented player good.

 

Personally, I'd rather see the Sox sign a few bargain basement guys with a chance to be a 4-5 starter than a Jeff Weaver (who's agent is Scott Boras by the way) who will probably STILL be a 4-5 starter for 3 or 4 times the price. I'm weary of the trade market because the Sox already dealt 2 top prospects and the price of pitching is (as usual) very very high right now.

 

Of course, if the Sox have a real shot at Roger Clemens, they need to take it-- bring Roger back for a chance to finish what he started.... but I still believe he's more likely to sit out April and sign with Houston in May than be in Boston by March.

[riverside sluggers]

this puts things into good perspective

 

Around the Horn: Starting rotation

Schilling, Beckett will anchor a strong Red Sox staff

By Ian Browne / MLB.com

 

BOSTON -- As innovative as the Red Sox can be at times, you can take it to the bank that manager Terry Francona won't pencil in a seven-man starting rotation when the season kicks off in April.

 

But as of now, the Red Sox hold in their possession seven pitchers that many teams would like to have in their rotation. From the new young gun (Josh Beckett) to the battle-tested ace (Curt Schilling) to the big-game lefty (David Wells) to the dazzling prospect (Jonathan Papelbon) to the crafty knuckleballer (Tim Wakefield), the Red Sox seem to have something for everyone. They also have Matt Clement, who got off to a 10-2 start last year before faltering in the second half, and Bronson Arroyo, the dependable righty with a sweet curveball.

 

Starting pitching figures to be a position of strength, which is certainly good news when you consider what a vital component it is to winning games, not to mention championships. Before analyzing those who will be in the fold, it is relevant to note that Wells is all but certain to be dealt before Spring Training. The veteran has expressed a strong desire to be moved to the West Coast, and the Red Sox will do all they can to accommodate that request.

 

Sans Boomer, how good can this rotation be? Beckett and Schilling are likely to provide the answers to that question. In Beckett, the Red Sox have acquired a potentially dominant starter, yet one who has never pitched 200 innings in a season. The Red Sox will stock their training room shelves with plenty of Stan's Blister Ointment in hopes Beckett can keep a long-time nemesis to a minimum. There is also the matter of Beckett's shoulder, which was fatigued late last season. The Red Sox are hoping that was nothing more than normal wear and tear.

 

The fact that Beckett conquered the Yankees on the biggest stage of all (the World Series in 2003) gives reason to believe he'll dive right into the fierce rivalry with no adjustment period needed. The last player to come to the Red Sox in a Thanksgiving weekend trade -- not to mention conquer the Yankees in the World Series before coming to Boston -- was Schilling. That swagger was gone from the Big Schil in 2005, as he struggled mightily to regain his groove following right ankle surgery.

 

But this winter, Schilling has been able to get back on his customary workout program, and knowing his competitiveness, he has probably pushed himself harder than normal to make up for all that went wrong in 2005. At the age of 39, there's no guarantee Schilling can reclaim his elite status. But given his fiercely competitive nature, it probably also wouldn't be wise to count him out. Having Beckett alongside should be a positive factor for Schilling. Keep in mind that he has pitched the best baseball of his career when positioned with another ace (think Randy Johnson in Arizona and Pedro Martinez with the Red Sox in 2004).

 

While there is a degree of uncertainty with Schilling and Beckett, Wakefield is fairly easy to project. Pencil him in for 12 to 15 wins, 200 innings and the highest degree of professionalism, and you'll probably be right on the money. The one adjustment Wakefield must make in Spring Training is getting used to a new catcher, likely to be John Flaherty. Veteran Doug Mirabelli, who did a masterful job handling Wakefield's knuckleball from 2002-05, was dealt to San Diego.

 

Clement seems to be the forgotten man entering 2006. But you can't discount the fact that the righty with a nasty slider was so effective the first three months of last season that he made the All-Star team. Sure, he struggled in the second half, but he did get belted above the right ear by a line drive by Carl Crawford in late July. Though Clement never used it as an excuse, who knows how much of a toll that harrowing incident took on him. No Red Sox player has been involved in more trade rumors this winter than Clement. But that could simply be a byproduct of Boston's depth in starting position, not to mention the need to fill other holes.

 

The slender Arroyo has emerged into a solid starter the last two years, and led the 2005 team in quality starts. He has the versatility to work out of the bullpen if the Red Sox have an overflow of starters, but he's more likely to remain a member of the rotation. If things break right for the 2006 Red Sox, starting pitching could be the element that carries the team.

[Ray10]

I say the Sox go with a rotation of

 

1. Beckett

2. Wakefield

3. Schilling

4. Papelbon

5. Clement

[guapo34]

In a chat on boston.com today, Gammons hinted the Sox may not trade Wells. He points out Wells is 16-1 at fenway since 1998. If we can't get anything useful for him, i don't see any reason to tell him that and give him the option to pitch for the Sox or retire. That would give a rotation of:

 

Schilling

Beckett

Wells

Wakefield

Clement

 

with Pappelbon in the bullpen ready to move to the rotation if anyone gets hurt. It would also allow us to trade Arroyo, hopefully for a player like Reed.

 

The only serious offer I can remember reported for Wells was Woody Williams and Dave Roberts from San Diego. Williams is pretty worthless, and Dave Roberts can't hit well enough to play center every day.

[jimmycarter05]

I don't want to trade Arroyo, because I think he's a very reliable 5th starter. I'm more in favor of trading Clement because he would be more of an asset to the lower level teams like Cincy or the Tigers for example if they wanted him, which they prolly do.

[jsinger121]

if we can use arroyo to fill other holes i have no problem with papelbon as a fifth starter because he is more than ready to take over as a #5 starter. arroyo's strikeout numbers have gone down the past yr. if the sox can trade him while he still has some value then they have to do it in order to fill a hole.

[gosox613]

i think we should find a way to deal clement and keep arroyo. i would like to see a rotation as follows:

1. beckett

2. schilling

3. wakefield

4. arroyo

5. papelbon

[jsinger121]

that wouldn't be bad trading clement instead of arroyo but remember they still have to trade wells before spring training.

[ORS]

I don't want to trade Arroyo, because I think he's a very reliable 5th starter. I'm more in favor of trading Clement because he would be more of an asset to the lower level teams like Cincy or the Tigers for example if they wanted him, which they prolly do.

Probably vs. Prolly = 2 extra keystrokes, don't be lazy.

 

About the starting rotation. Trade Arroyo for two reasons. One, he's likely to land more as a trading chip due to the fact that he still has arbitration time, making him cheaper. Two, Clement is the better pitcher, despite his annual 2nd half hiccup. Both experienced a decline in K/9 rate last year. Arroyo went from over 7 to 4.38, while Clement went from over 9 to 6.88. However, Clement came from the NL to the AL which requires an adjustment. Translated K rate reflects this league adjusted difference, and Clement only declined by 1.4, while Bronson "I wish I could quit my day job and go on tour" Arroyo declined by 2.4. Both struggled with lefty/righty splits against LH batters, but Arroyo was more proned to giving up the long ball. Clement's LH split problem really became evident from July on, which makes me inclined to think the ball off the noggin rattled him a little. I think Matt deserves another chance. Bronson, thanks for your role in 2004, but it's time to move on.

 

EDIT: Spelling

[Beckett95]

MLB.Com article on Sox rotation

 

BOSTON -- As innovative as the Red Sox can be at times, you can take it to the bank that manager Terry Francona won't pencil in a seven-man starting rotation when the season kicks off in April.

 

But as of now, the Red Sox hold in their possession seven pitchers that many teams would like to have in their rotation. From the new young gun (Josh Beckett) to the battle-tested ace (Curt Schilling) to the big-game lefty (David Wells) to the dazzling prospect (Jonathan Papelbon) to the crafty knuckleballer (Tim Wakefield), the Red Sox seem to have something for everyone. They also have Matt Clement, who got off to a 10-2 start last year before faltering in the second half, and Bronson Arroyo, the dependable righty with a sweet curveball.

 

Starting pitching figures to be a position of strength, which is certainly good news when you consider what a vital component it is to winning games, not to mention championships.

 

Before analyzing those who will be in the fold, it is relevant to note that Wells is all but certain to be dealt before Spring Training. The veteran has expressed a strong desire to be moved to the West Coast, and the Red Sox will do all they can to accommodate that request.

 

Sans Boomer, how good can this rotation be? Beckett and Schilling are likely to provide the answers to that question.

 

In Beckett, the Red Sox have acquired a potentially dominant starter, yet one who has never pitched 200 innings in a season. The Red Sox will stock their training room shelves with plenty of Stan's Blister Ointment in hopes Beckett can keep a long-time nemesis to a minimum.

 

There is also the matter of Beckett's shoulder, which was fatigued late last season. The Red Sox are hoping that was nothing more than normal wear and tear.

 

The fact that Beckett conquered the Yankees on the biggest stage of all (the World Series in 2003) gives reason to believe he'll dive right into the fierce rivalry with no adjustment period needed.

 

The last player to come to the Red Sox in a Thanksgiving weekend trade -- not to mention conquer the Yankees in the World Series before coming to Boston -- was Schilling. That swagger was gone from the Big Schil in 2005, as he struggled mightily to regain his groove following right ankle surgery.

 

But this winter, Schilling has been able to get back on his customary workout program, and knowing his competitiveness, he has probably pushed himself harder than normal to make up for all that went wrong in 2005.

 

At the age of 39, there's no guarantee Schilling can reclaim his elite status. But given his fiercely competitive nature, it probably also wouldn't be wise to count him out.

 

Having Beckett alongside should be a positive factor for Schilling. Keep in mind that he has pitched the best baseball of his career when positioned with another ace (think Randy Johnson in Arizona and Pedro Martinez with the Red Sox in 2004).

 

While there is a degree of uncertainty with Schilling and Beckett, Wakefield is fairly easy to project. Pencil him in for 12 to 15 wins, 200 innings and the highest degree of professionalism, and you'll probably be right on the money.

 

The one adjustment Wakefield must make in Spring Training is getting used to a new catcher, likely to be John Flaherty. Veteran Doug Mirabelli, who did a masterful job handling Wakefield's knuckleball from 2002-05, was dealt to San Diego.

 

Clement seems to be the forgotten man entering 2006. But you can't discount the fact that the righty with a nasty slider was so effective the first three months of last season that he made the All-Star team. Sure, he struggled in the second half, but he did get belted above the right ear by a line drive by Carl Crawford in late July.

 

Though Clement never used it as an excuse, who knows how much of a toll that harrowing incident took on him.

 

No Red Sox player has been involved in more trade rumors this winter than Clement. But that could simply be a byproduct of Boston's depth in starting position, not to mention the need to fill other holes.

 

The slender Arroyo has emerged into a solid starter the last two years, and led the 2005 team in quality starts.

 

He has the versatility to work out of the bullpen if the Red Sox have an overflow of starters, but he's more likely to remain a member of the rotation.

 

If things break right for the 2006 Red Sox, starting pitching could be the element that carries the team.

 

[riverside sluggers]

Boston Herald, interview with co-GMs, Peter Gammons, Theo, among the list of people there

 

Outfielder Adam Stern could benefit from more seasoning, according to Hoyer. “Adam Stern’s development is definitely not over,” Hoyer said. “Hopefully we’ll get him to (Triple-A) Pawtucket and help him there with his development.” Left-handed starter prospect Jon Lester and right-handed reliever Craig Hansen will both begin the season in Pawtucket and will be promoted as soon as the team thinks they’re ready. A decision on whether or not Jonathan Papelbon pitches in the big league rotation or bullpen this season will depend on the needs of the club.

 

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=120385&format=&page=2

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Yankee fans keep going on about how the Sox rotation sucks, but it compares with theirs like this (as of now):

 

Schilling > Johnson

Beckett > Mussina

Wakefield ? Wang

Clement > Wright

Papelbon > Pavano

 

Arroyo

 

Do you guys agree?

[CrespoBlows]

Yankee fans keep going on about how the Sox rotation sucks, but it compares with theirs like this (as of now):

 

Schilling ? Johnson

Beckett > Mussina

Wakefield ? Wang

Clement > Wright

Papelbon > Pavano

 

Arroyo

 

Do you guys agree?

 

I don't.

 

Beckett > Johnson

Schilling > Mussina

Wells > Wang

Papelbon > Wright

Clement > Pavano

 

Arroyo > Chacon

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I assumed Wells would be traded, but in that case I do agree.

[ksushi]

Clement is not better than Pavano if Pavano is healthy. That is my guy instinct on that one. Wells will likely be dealt and arroyo = wang in that case, and our spot started is lenny dinardo who in my opinion is better than Chacon.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Clement is not better than Pavano if Pavano is healthy. That is my guy instinct on that one. Wells will likely be dealt and arroyo = wang in that case, and our spot started is lenny dinardo who in my opinion is better than Chacon.

 

However, Pavano is never healthy. If Clement is not traded and can keep an ERA well under 4, he'd be a great compliment to Schill and Beckett.

[ksushi]

Those are two rather large if's, chief. When has clement ever proven capable of holding his ERA below four in the American league? He is a notorious first half pitcher with a precipitous second half decline in most years. I mean sure, he could win a cy young if he isn't traded and can hold an ERA well under four, i mean 1.87 is well under four, if he can do what roger did, Clement could be a Cy Younger. RIght?

[Gertie]

Clement is decent, but he's a #4 starter right now at best. Until he can become consistent throughout a full season, as well as finally harness his talent, he won't be much better than that.

[elsrbueno]

I don't.

 

Beckett > Johnson

Schilling > Mussina

Wells > Wang

Papelbon > Wright

Clement > Pavano

 

Arroyo > Chacon

 

Crespo-- that's an extremely optimistic comparison.

 

At this point I'd rather have Beckett than Johnson because Beckett is going to be better for longer, but in 2006 with Beckett adjusting from Florida to Boston (pitching in both the AL East and in a hitters' park) I'd have to think Johnson is better (in the SHORT TERM) than Beckett.

 

Beckett

 

I agree with you 100% on the #2 spot. Schilling may never be the same pitcher he was in 2004, but considering that he's finally healthy and can have a full offseason to get himself in proper pitching shape, he's much more reliable and effective than Mussina.

 

Schilling > Mussina

 

Assuming Wells is traded, I'm throwing Wakefield into Boston's #3 spot. I agree with ksushi that Wang is basically Arroyo. Neither one is terribly dominant and both are back of the rotation starters. If anything I'd even give Arroyo an edge over Wang head-to-head.

 

Wakefield > Wang

 

As things stand right now, I would say that Wright is probably not a favorite to make the Yankees' rotation. With his injuries and ineffectiveness last year, he's going to have to prove himself both healthy and effective to win a spot. With that in mind, and also keeping in mind that Boston will probably try to keep Papelbon's inning and pitch counts down at least to start the year, I'm slating Clement into the #4 spot for Boston and Pavano for NY. We all know that Matt Clement had a disastrous second half last year and given his tendancies I simply don't buy that his collapse was entirely a result of getting hit in the head. While it must have some kind of psychological impact, Clement is also historically better in the first half than in the second. That having been said, I'm not completely sold on Pavano either. He doesn't miss a lot of bats, and in the AL East with Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto bringing very good lineups against him I think he's going to get eaten alive. He's really only had one good season and that was in Florida and in the NL East. (For those Yankees fans prepared to call me a hipocrat.... I also said Josh Beckett-- who's a much better pitcher than Carl Pavano would suffer moving into Boston and the AL East). Clement will look much better at the All Star break but these guys will probably be about even by year's end. I think Clement's got a lot more potential if he can harness his control and stay consistent-- but that's a big IF.

 

Clement = Pavano

 

Barring a trade, Bronson Arroyo's probably the #5 starter for the Red Sox. Also, if I'm the Yankees, I'm going to try to ride Shawn Chacon's hot streak into 2005. He's long on confidence right now given his good performance last year and he's my favorite to win the final starter's job. Of course, he has some relief experience (albiet less successful than his career as a starter) so that might impact NY's decision. Right now though Chacon's the favorite IMO. While Chacon got a lot of press in NY for having a great second half, his stats don't bode well for future dominance especially in the AL East. Even despite his 2.85 ERA he had only 40 K's in 80 innings and walked 30 batters in that span. He also gave up a fair amount of hits (66) meaning he had 96 baserunners in 80 innings-- not a great ratio. Compare that to Bronson Arroyo who had 100 K's in 205 innings but only 54 walks. He did allow a ton of hits (213) so he also is not dominant. However, considering that Arroyo has been in the AL East for 2 full seasons and Chacon has only been around for half a season, hitters are more familiar with Bronson. Since historically when hitters and pitchers are not familiar with each other the pitcher has the advantage, I expect Chacon's numbers to fall off from his 2005 second half. Therefore, I'm giving Bronson the advantage here.

 

Arroyo > Chacon

 

As far as the 6th man is concerned, the Yankees have 2 candidates: Aaron Small and Jaret Wright. The Red Sox have Jon Papelbon as their extra man. On the same token as expecting Chacon's numbers to fall off a little bit once the league gets familiar with him, I would expect the same thing to happen to Small and Papelbon, and I've said about 100 times that I'm not sold on Wright. He's always been long on potential and played one good year under Leo Mazzone (who seems to get pitchers to play above their ability) into a lucrative contract. Papelbon's at the age (25) where he's only going to get better, and as a rookie he K'd 34 in 34 innings and kept his walk total relatively low (17). 33 hits in 34 innings is a bit high. Both Jaret Wright and Aaron Small are on the wrong side of 30 and Jaret Wright was simply awful last year. He had an OK start early in the year against Boston but was dodging trouble all night in that start. Aaron Small was 10-0 last year and pitched pretty well, but he's a 35 year old rookie and no doubt was pitching way over his head last year. I expect he'll come down to earth.

 

Papelbon > Small/Wright

 

If all parties are healthy, the Red Sox have a much stronger rotation than the Yankees. Of course the Yankees have Mariano Rivera and a dominant closer is something missing from Boston's bullpen. If Beckett has blister problems or Schilling has injury problems it's a whole different senario. Of course the same can be said for Randy Johnson's knees/back, Mussina's elbow, or Pavano and Wright's shoulder.

[riverside sluggers]

We also dont know yet if Wang's inflamed shoulder was a one time thing, or a sign of things to come

[example1]

At this point I'd rather have Beckett than Johnson because Beckett is going to be better for longer, but in 2006 with Beckett adjusting from Florida to Boston (pitching in both the AL East and in a hitters' park) I'd have to think Johnson is better (in the SHORT TERM) than Beckett.

 

I don't. Beckett still throws hard and is intimidating. RJ does not and is not. Beckett is currently a better pitcher than RJ and I think any team would rather have him.

[Redguitar985]

I don't. Beckett still throws hard and is intimidating. RJ does not and is not. Beckett is currently a better pitcher than RJ and I think any team would rather have him.

 

I think Beckett and Johnson both might have a hard time at first this season. Beckett will be pitching in the AL which is a tougher league to pitch in than the NL, and Johnson is still getting older. But in the long run, I'd still take Beckett because he can adapt. Johnson won't.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Randy Johnson will NOT stay healthy this year. He's a 41 year old beanpole.

 

As for Clement, if the A's are not competing at the trade deadline, maybe the Sox could flip Clement and Shoppach for Zito? It's only a matter of time until Jason Kendall is horrendous. We would also avoid Clement's annual second half meltdown.

[Soxfan1]

I doubt that Schilling and RJ can both stay healthy the whole year. Watch out for Wells either changing his mind if not traded or just simply retiring. I would love for him to be happy and stay but he is not happy here so if we get anythig in return that can start then I would send Arroyo to the bullpen.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I doubt that Schilling and RJ can both stay healthy the whole year. Watch out for Wells either changing his mind if not traded or just simply retiring. I would love for him to be happy and stay but he is not happy here so if we get anythig in return that can start then I would send Arroyo to the bullpen.

 

 

Agreed.