UtahSox
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
UtahSox replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I have zero confidence in FO development of position players. So much so that the thought of selling off pieces for prospects makes me ill. But this team just absolutely stinks at baseball. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
UtahSox replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
BTV struggling right now. I can’t remember disagreeing this much w/ BTV since I joined their site. -
Without the 2 guys Sox are counting on being their best players. Crochet and Anthony.
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Agreed. Maybe that’s why they moved slower on Kurtz/ Wilson?
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I was talking about the athletics…. Soderstrom, Wilson and Kurtz. Soda and Wilson just signed their deals after year + service and Kurtz still hasn’t signed. I don’t know man the more I think about it, I think I just hate Craig Breslow so bad that anything he does looks ridiculously stupid to me. But because he botched the negotiations with Bregman so badly I look for reasons why he wouldn’t step up on the money. You are right the Red Sox do spend money, not as much as most of us think they should based on their revenue. But they do spend the money which means they do have the flexibility.
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Moon and the rest of you Savants…. Record aside the BoSox are showing some life 2 games out of WC…. Rotation looks good, the thought of going into WC round with Crochet, Suarez and Gray their playoff experience etc. all the young explosive arms+ looks like Eyanson might be this years version of Tolle available down the stretch….. If you were Breslow. Do you look to add a bat now? Still wait and see? Who would inquire about? And what would you give up to get them?
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I’d praise the A’s for the way they have handled their 3 headed young core. I wish we did it how they did. Win now…….. worry about 2031 in 2029-2030 like the Dodgers do.
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No the braves traded Chris sale for Grissom. Breslow is a dips***. Also I think I’ve established this already but I loathe these extensions for young players absolutely despise them.
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Extensions on young players with 5-6 years of control are done by dipsh** who are obsessed with winning deals vs winning World Series. The best way to win World Series is to keep young talented players cheap and use you dollars to maximize roster around them with GOOD proven baseball players. Such as Suarez and Bregman.
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Thats correct…… They HAD to pivot based on other decisions they had made. Let’s not focus on IKF/ Sandoval for now start here: Bello- time in league is 3 years, he would have been Arb1 this year. (3years of control left) Roughly 1.6m salary…. Instead RS show an AAV of 9.16m = 7.56m unnecessary against the RS AAV Anthony- time in league less than 1 yr. (6 years of control left) Roughly 800k salary……… instead RS show an AAV of 16.25M = 15.45m unnecessary against the RS AAV Campbell- time in league less than 1 yr. (6 years of control left) Roughly 800k salary……… instead RS show an AAV of 7.5M= 6.7m unnecessary against the RS AAV combined between those 3 that’s 29.7M in unnecessary AAV then if you simply didn’t sign IKF (something they didn’t need to do) you’re there you’re at 35M AAV. Ergo RS could have signed both Suarez and Bregman for the same # in AAV. If the front office wasn’t completely dysfunctional and obsessed with winning every deal instead focusing on winning baseball games.
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Huh? Huh? Must you start so many of your posts with this word? Articulate your argument a little better than huh. I understand your point on the math. Bregman’s AAV is $35M, not $26M, and yes, there is a meaningful difference there. My post was not about whether $9M matters to me — it was about whether $9M matters to the Boston Red Sox an organization valued probably around 11b. When you factor in Fenway and NESN. I remind you this is the same organization that just committed roughly $6M to IKF, and 12m to Sandoval which in my opinion has provided very little value. So let’s not suddenly act like every dollar is sacred. The dollar amounts are big in pro baseball $9 million can be added or subtracted from any major league baseball roster very easily… I have zero doubt you know this, yet per usual…. You attempt to denigrate the entire argument based on dollar amounts. I’ll spell it out……The larger point I was making is this: if we had not jumped early into long-term commitments for players we already controlled for years (Anthony, Campbell, Bello, etc.), I believe we could have realistically structured both the Suárez deal and Bregman. The math may not line up perfectly dollar-for-dollar, but we also would have had assets such as Kyle Harrison (no need at 3b = no trade with brewers) and others that could have been available to be moved in a package to free up additional payroll if needed. So yes, $26M does not equal $35M. I understand that. The argument was never that they are identical numbers. The argument was that the Red Sox had alternative paths available, and chose not to take them. Moon has sound logic and he hasn’t wavered from it since October: Alex Bregman stats in year 1 of his massive contract are not living up to the compensation. And if he’s not living up to the compensation in year1 , what are years 3-5 going to look like? But my opinion is simple: the Red Sox would be a better team today with Bregman at third base than without him. Between his bat, his consistency, and his clubhouse presence, I believe this team is at minimum sitting in a Wild Card spot right now with him on the roster. And that’s not worth spending a whole bunch of extra money just being smarter about when we spend it.
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Could have saved 26 million not signing weird crappy utility IF, and not paying guys we already have locked up for the next 6 years. Thats about what a Bregman deal would have been….. hmmmmmm
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I just keep circling back to this though The Red Sox are currently two games out of the wildcard halfway through May. Arguably our best 2 players have not made an impact yet this season. I still argue-Our best chance moving forward is doubling down on maybe some riskier could be badlonger-term contracts, for better baseball players NOW and potentially getting off of terrible contracts for below average players. Our pitching rotation looks pennant worthy. Lineup sucks ass. One thing is for sure, is that Red Sox nation is not very happy with the roster construction. The Red Sox organization has announced that they are now in their window, maybe they show their depth and balls and make a move that reminds everybody. This is a top 3 to 4 revenue baseball organization? I think you’re starting to see in the NL some teams already realizing they’re 8-10 games back of the wildcard spot. They might become sellers earlier. If you can somehow add some thump to this lineup in 2026 and 2027 this team could be dangerous.
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I think that’s my argument, admittedly I lean towards a “worry about the future in the future” type mentality. Where I think you try to put yourself in the shoes of the GM more. My stance is probably a course correction from hearing so much about these rising stars (campbell, Mayer, Casas, Anthony) who are all going to continue to ascend to greatness. I’m starting to question a lot of those players. Roman injuries are starting to worry me, especially the WAY he gets injured, both the back last year and the wrist this year. On just a routine swing of the baseball bat. Rafaela/Abreu have taken that step forward. Duran/Yoshida/ Story/ Durbin/ Mayer/ Narvaez have been far worse than I expected. IDK here is my hot take: I don’t think you can expect a Red Sox to be able to systemically improve their offense via progression, ergo you have to look externally. If look externally at the free agent classes in the next two years. 1. The Quality of the sub 30 YO bats is just not great. 2. Quality bats in free agency tend to lead you to have to sign for longer or more money than you’re comfortable with. I know Adames and Chapman would have some inherent risk, I think it creates an opportunity for us to improve offensively in the short term and over the next 2 to 3 years. Is there a risk absolutely….. does the tail end of those those contracts look good? I don’t know probably not.. I’m not even in love with either of those players. I just think you gotta make a move, and those are the type of players/ contracts you’re gonna have to get a little uncomfortable taking on. But look at the Nolan arenados, Xander Boegarts, Mike trouts. Good players can get you good results later in career if you’re willing to take that stab in the dark. I also acknowledge that many players continue a downward Trend.
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Adames can play more than just short. Arias isn’t a guarantee….. For all your age regression you love to speak of, Xander is having his best season since 2022. Good baseball players are good baseball players. And guess what you’re gonna have to get uncomfortable in free agency or you’ll do what you did last year-every year and whiff on all the good hitters be stuck with trading for little durbies.
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But the Adames deal could coincide with Franklin aria is coming up so you could offset the salary by having a young guy getting paid peanuts. And Matt Chapman defensively even if he regressed would still be better than whatever the hell we’re getting out of Caleb Durbin. I don’t know, man we’re still only what three games out of the wildcard halfway through May this move makes a lot of sense. And it’s not like there’s good free agents in the next couple of years. It’s kind of a weak couple of FA classes.
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Don’t disagree……… Definitely the Brewers do a great job at developing young arms as well. To your point though, when you see how Bennett has improved, and take into account how a whole offseason with Red Sox pitching program, how would that look for Harrison? Probably pretty good. I Just said that from a worst case scenario, that I’d rather have Harrison and Bregman/ +other big bat than Suarez/Durbin. And you can imagine how good we would be with those 5 young lefties (including Crochet)
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Marte is the best 2nd baseman in baseball he will bounce back. Our offense is absolute dog sh**, I’d much rather have Bregman+ Marte+ Contreras. SP- Crochet, Gray, Harrison, Tolle, Early 1. R Anthony/ J Duran 2. A Bregman 3. K Marte 4. W Contreras 5. W Abreu 6. T Story 7. J Duran/ M Yoshida 8. C Narvaez 9. C Rafaela
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No I’m not saying I thought Harrison was a difference maker…… but had we signed Bregman (which I was ADAMANT about) Harrison by proxy would still be here And sadly probably less effective in RS uniform. I commented what I did because Breslow diagnosed exactly what this team needed in October then overcomplicated it. I believe Duran/ Anthony maybe even Rafaela would be better with Bregman helping guide them.

