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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    IMO, we won't lose a single game. We have 8 teams that will definitely go over, and maybe 3 teams that might go over. Will those 11 teams vote for a cap? We have 11 teams that don't spend much. Will any of those teams vote for a floor? Of the 8 in the middle, some have fairly successful results. I'm not seeing it. The union just kicked the crap out of the owners on the 3rd year arbitration change. That was a huge win, after a huge loss 10 years ago. I think we'll see the usual whinging about how the owners will go broke if they have to pay one more dollar, and the players whinging about feeding their kids, but they will settle one week before the start of the season. IMHO.
  2. JoeBrady
    The recent lockout was a result of the players strike. Leaving the WS decision up to the players was incredibly stupid. With a lockout, the owners won't mind losing a 1/2 season, so long as they have a WS.
  3. JoeBrady
    I wouldn't be at all concerned about Duran being the DH, provided they can move Yoshida for a RH DH/OF. I'd have given the RS a B+ pending that move, but still had to round it up to an A.
  4. JoeBrady
    Welcome to the MLB. You have to get use to the fact that players want as much money as possible.
  5. JoeBrady
    Not at all. I like rooting for the same guys each year, but free agency has made that difficult. And I have been spoiled. I would like another WSC or two before I move on. Keeping good players at a huge cost won't do that. The three B's are likely on the downhill slide, and have another 23 years combined years left on their contracts.
  6. JoeBrady
    It might depend on how one defines power. Alonso has a lot more HRs, but Alonso's SLG is only moderately higher over the past two years. With our pitching and new-found defense, I can make a pretty good argument that Duran's ability to manufacture runs every day is more important than Alonso's ability to hit a HR once every 5 days.
  7. JoeBrady
    That's the whole thing. We don't know how they come up with their version of WAR, or even if they have their own version. Just taking a look at bWAR v fWAR, there is a difference of 0.9 WAR. Theoretically, 0.9 * 6 years * $10M/WAR is a difference of $54M. And that's without an inflation factor. I'm not bagging on BTV, but a long duration * even a small difference, yields a large variance.
  8. JoeBrady
    That's why BTV has to be taken with a grain of salt. Long-term contracts are difficult to assess,
  9. JoeBrady
    Those three guys had a combined 11 bWAR for a combined $95M, and still have another $685M in liabilities to go, and their average age is about 32. I liked them all, but we'd be finished for the next 6 years had we kept them.
  10. JoeBrady
    One good year+ one year at risk. I ignored the team option because it had a decent-sized buy-out, tough I normally give the team some credit on that.
  11. JoeBrady
    It's a great thing. 3 WAR * 6 years * $10M++/WAR = $180M. Less $43M is $137M in extra value.
  12. JoeBrady
    But I didn't really say that. Pitt and the Reds have drafted well, but are too afraid of making a mistake to trade anyone. And the Angels and Rox are just bad, bad front offices.
  13. JoeBrady
    I agree. I wanted to trade away Duran for a #2, but Suarez took care of that. And once we acquired Durbin, we really didn't need anything. That said, if I saw Burns, or Chandler, or Seth Hernandez on the block, I could change my mind pretty quickly.
  14. JoeBrady
    Oddly enough, he is only 2nd in doubles and triples over the past two years (1st if you combine the two). I'd have bet, without even looking that he lead in both categories. Maybe the most exciting player in BB.
  15. JoeBrady
    FWIW, all three guys will decline. It's more a matter of how much and how quick. One can defend or critique either side and sound reasonable.
  16. JoeBrady
    That's my figuring. He was good in 2025, so I expect him to be good in 2026. So we have one year at risk.
  17. JoeBrady
    It's the true believer syndrome. Even reality won't penetrate. Most people can understand the minutiae of a HR/OBP discussion, or a #2 v a cleanup hitter.
  18. JoeBrady
    Has that been verified by the Red Sox?
  19. JoeBrady
    IMO, that's what we did. We paid up for Suarez and Gray and went cheaper on Contreras & Durbin. To me, it depends on what you need and what's available. Again, only imho, but Bregman was too injury-prone and slightly to old to match the Cubs, and Alonso is decidedly one-dimensional. A guy like Marte is definitely a step up, but for how long? Two years? OTOH, I was happy with the price we paid for both Crochet and Suarez.
  20. JoeBrady
    Except the ask for Neto was probably Arias, Early & Tolle.
  21. JoeBrady
    It's almost a waste of time dealing with teams (Cincy, Pitt, the Rox) like that. They can't make a decision out of fear that they will be wrong. They wind up asking 50% over market. Guys like Preller and Friedman, etc., don't care about the optics of anything.
  22. JoeBrady
    I agree completely. Watching Ceddanne is like watching a Van Gogh. But I could sell my Van Gogh for something that fits my collection better.
  23. JoeBrady
    Yes, but there is also a decent chance we get rid of Masa. If/when that happens, Duran could easily a 45-game outfielder, plus injury insurance, etc. That can't be commingled with someone that is a pure DH like Masa, Devers, Schwarber, etc. He's obviously worth more as a CF for Cincy or Pitt, but he is also worth more than the usual DH valuation.
  24. JoeBrady
    They wouldn't, but what's the point of being a 'journalist' if you don't ask tough questions. Do we even know if the NTC is a hard and fast rule, or just a preference?
  25. JoeBrady
    It's neither. The best approach, imo, is to attain the most WAR for the money available. Schwarber + Alonso project to ~6.2 fWAR for $61M. Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin project to 11 fWAR for $65M, plus some minor prospects.
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