drewski6

I dont think they are there yet, taking the best offer, the one they want to sign and negotiating against it. Thats like a final step. Its a good sign, however, if Boras is like "we really like your offer but want you to guarantee years 12,13" I think right now they are fielding offers and trying to get teams to continue competing against each other. Could be wrong. Hangup implies, however, that they are close to an agreement and just need to work out some final hurdles. I dont think thats the case. Could be wrong.

This is baseball, did anyone expect the WS to be Rangers vs Dbacks 2 years ago?

IMO, we'd absolutely have a chance at a playoff spot with the aforementioned player combos. Of course, things would need to break in the right direction (like usual), e.g. Story staying healthy, one or more prospect playing well, Houck showing last year was no fluke... You add Soto, Story, and one or 2 pitchers (Fried and Crochet for example) along with some pen help, and it would be hard not to be excited for next year. Certainly not a team that should be throwing in the towel before the season opens

Well it wont be a 1yr deal for Soto, but sure. And I can see them improving the rotation via trade if they pay big for Soto and dont want a second huge cash outlay in the same offseason. Also, pitching is less projectable. Burnes is more likely to go to crap or get hurt than an equivalent bat. Likewise, one of our 15 #3/4 starters is more likely to figure it out than an equivalent (average) starting hitter.

Why even bother with Castillo (drewski adds: right now)? I dont think it makes sense for Sea nor Boston to engage in these trades right now. While Harmony does seem to underrate the trade values of Bos players/prospects, I do think he is correct that Castillo's value is likely to rise once the remaining top 2 FA pitchers come off the board. Y'all know how this works. The Orioles, Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays, Mets, and Im sure a couple dark horse teams are in on the remaining 2 starters. Those that miss out will look to the next tier down, but also the trade market. At this point, when "signing an equiv starter for just cash" is no longer an option, the trade values of Crochet and Castillo will rise (maybe not as much for Castillo if you lump him in with Eovaldi and not Fried/Burnes), but yes it should still go up somewhat. Its not crazy to suggest that due to supply/demand, teams will have to "overpay" per BTV for a trade for a starter. If the Orioles get Burnes and the Yankees get Fried and the mets trade for crochet, you better believe the sox will be looking to make an overpay on the trade front. I dont know about Mayer for Castillo level overpay, but certainly some kind of overpay. SO it makes sense for teams looking to deal a starter to wait (for me). Regarding the Sox, also wait. Lets see if we get Soto. If not, they will make a strong push for Fried and/or Burnes and may land one. So lets see where the dust settles with the free agents before engaging Seattle in a trade.

They care about their friends more than they care about your prospects. Its a brotherhood and prospects arent in until they are.

Id go positive, personally, if the bidding on Fried and Burnes goes nutty.

You can get around BTV pay-wall by searching for the player , and just grabbing his TV from a proposed trade. Hes at -6. Regressing? Maybe. But 2 years ago he was one of the very best pitchers in baseball. And that contract isnt bad and only has 3 years left. Id be interested at a price of -6 trade value units. And not to dump Yoshida, because I want Castillo because I think hes good.

Id do Wilyer, Bleis, Arias.

I like Cespedes and Perales both quite a bit. Id do Bleis, Arias, Meidroth all day. But I think Wilyer goes in the deal.

My thinking is that by Sotos age 35 season +, inflation will make whatever AAV he has for the last few years not look like an albatross even if some regression.

In the context of giving Soto 12-14 years, do you agree (at least in small part) that whatever we give Soto (lets say 50M per) will not be the top of the market in year 10? If Soto gets 50m in 2024, I predict that by 2030 - there will be 5-10 position players making 55M+ and by 2034 (deep into the deal) 50m per will be well above avg for a starting position player but no longer considered superstar money. I dont think inflation stops inflating next 10 years.

At first I was surprised that Abreu trade value seemed to have surpassed Casas , but I feel like Ive grown to understand why and see it as justified. Especially because Abreu is rock-solid defensively.

Ive wondered this as well, especially because it was a non contact injury that arose from wear and tear from violently swinging the bat. Its not like hes not going to continue swinging when he bats.

Sure, hes over a k/inning and his FIP averages out to high 3's last 4 years. Hes a fine fallback if the bidding on Fried and Burnes gets nutty. What I dont want to see ; however, is Fried and Burnes sign for 6-7 years at 28M and then we sign Manea for 3 years at 25M. Because then it will feel like we 90% of the AAV of a tier 1 FA for a tier 2 FA.

And I also think that if they get Soto, they'll still try to get one of the top 3 FA starters. But try being the operative word. But I mean literally try and not pretend to try for PR

I believe they'll make a strong offer, but it wont be a blank check, and it may be a blank check from the Mets. Should that be the case, first of all, bummer. Second of all, at least its then easier to justify getting one (or maybe 2) of the top 3 FA starters. Personally, I think Id rather get 1 of Burnes, Fried, Snell and get another starter via trade (than 2 of the aforementioned 3). I do think that if they miss on Soto, they will get a potent bat somewhere (whether it be Hernandez, Adames, Bregman, Guerrero, Alonso)....Someone (along with a top 3 starter). Or at least make "strong" offers. And I dont mean "make an offer to say you did" (like our half-hearted attempt to get Teoscar last year). I mean a real effort, but you dont know where the chips will fall. Thats obvs worst case (and not in small part because it would be a continuation of a trend) - falling just short with competitive offers but falling short and falling back to the mid-tiers on inflated AAVs because you fell short on the true difference makers.

Agreed, it feels to me with Story, Campbell, Cedanne covering some MI, Hamilton, Sogard.....Grissom has a bit of a mountain (lets call it a large hill) to climb to get regular PT

And you are creating some 40 man openings with the Crochet trade.

I do worry a bit about 40 man roster space, but I assume there are guys that can get DFA'd

I like it. I would just add that I doubt that Grissom would win the job with options such as moving Rafaela to infield (to get ANthony in there) or a stratight swap of Grissom for Kristian Campbell. Obviously, we dont need to commit to Grissom as an everyday player if a prospect wins a major league job and I suspect one will at some point. There will, of course, also be injury attrition. But if you consider that you dont have Roman Anthony or Campbell on this 26 man, they are serving as depth and thats good depth.

I wouldnt be shocked at all if Arrenado resurges. Not saying Id expect it or reflect it and what Im willing to give up , but 5 years ago this guy had hall-of-fame caliber years. He was a true stud. Not implying that Im regardless of cost.

Flipped for Crochet?

Hes a smiling lefty with a larger than life bat, Ortiz is the comp.

Agreed with all. Just to add : another possibility is that both Soto and Anthony have great careers for the sox. You want Soto regardless of whether Anthony becomes a superstar.