drewski6
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Everything posted by drewski6
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Im sure BTV does. The question is how accurate. But to calculate surplus trade value , you would of course have to factor in that players salary, his projected future salary (arb years) and the opportunity cost (cost of replacement on FA market). Otherwise, you are just making up numbers. But Im not the one to ask if BTV's algo does it well
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"Apparently" is a key word, but yes, 100%. If the Pirates are actually listening to offers for Jones and the BTV price is semi-accurate (Abreu + Hamilton) - this is why he caught my eye.
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89 mph slider with a 44% whiff rate. Still very young..
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I did and thanks for reading. And thats why I proposed it. Thinking was "Abreu gets us within 10 units of Jones (per BTV), maybe Abreu can headline a trade for Jones"
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Thats a punt itself. But I do agree that often fans just think that if you include 10 guys with 1 surplus value you can get a guy for 9 surplus value ("Im being fair, we are giving up 10 units and only getting back 9") - and thats just fan talk. Certainly a premium on real talent.
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I agree with most. Id be a little shy to deal Casas immediately, especially if we are signing Breg and Burnes. My only issue with this post is the last sentence. Bregman and Burnes are both superstar signings.
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More to come too. For example they may sign one of TH and Santander, but they certainly arent getting both and one is winding up on this list for at least a couple points.
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You joke but "fan capital" is a real thing. We are not the only team that has spent heavily, had a period of winning, and then fell back. Its kind of cyclical, like many many things. But the fan capital is approaching E and its time to refill the tank. I think theyll spend this year, and if not , next.
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Sure, especially with FSG pursuing and acquiring other businesses and growing their properties well beyond just Red Sox/Fenway - they operate from the business side first. As opposed to Cohen, who is just a crazed fan with ultra deep pockets. But when you operate from a business perspective first, that doesnt mean that you never spend/take-risks. It just means its more strategic / calculated. Of course, they will open the vault again. There are times to invest in your business and times to draw from it. Good business is not "always be cheap, never spend money: but its also not "spend , spend , spend, wins first, fans first"
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
drewski6 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Its possible, but not probable. I think its over 50% theres another SP addition (and I dont mean John Means). Watch it be John Means -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
drewski6 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This happens to a lot of teams, and usually your pitching his a lull in August. Gotta rely on the bats to win enough to keep you in contention while you rest up and heal up your line 1 pitchers , using your depth in the interim -
I think a Yoshi dump will be more feasible either mid-season or after this year.
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I also enjoyed watching Verdugo stink up the Yankees.
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Does Schwarber count?
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
drewski6 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Thats what Ive been saying! -
Fine, slot him at 3B - but dont trade Casas IMO. Well, it depends on return but if you trade Casas you are cutting into your flexibility. If Yoshida becomes a massively overpaid bench player, its a sunk cost. Most likely, there will be some kind of injury or bust somewhere , and we'll be well suited to juggle things around and maintain success if we have Bregman, Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Story, Campbell.... Devers to 1B and Casas to DH can be plan A, no issues with that. But if Story gets hurt or Campbell needs more time, or maybe Campbell moves to OF if RA needs more time.... My only point is that I value Bregmans flexibility and would welcome his signing even if we dont immediately trade Casas. Because trading Casas cant be undone. Where you slot Bregman on the diamond can be undone.
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If Im sasaki , Im looking to get paid since Im locked into six years (standard minor league contract). Best avenue to making bucks is commercials. Id ask Ohtani if hed do one with me but take less than his going rate for such commercial (allowing the company to spend more on me, Sasaki)
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Dodgers. Do a commercial with Ohtani and get paid that way.
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The flexibility is more valuable than being able to pencil everyone in on December 17. If he is signed the plan will be to get his bat in the lineup at the cost of the weak link. Lets see who that weak link is. Could be 2B, could be DH. I dont really care if you slot Breg in at 3B or 2B at this point in time. The fact that both avenues exist, makes me think he'll get into the lineup somehow.
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Stay flexibile.
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Because we dont know what injuries will emerge, and if Yoshida will hit next year. There are many avenues to Bregman making us better. What happens if Story gets hurt and Yoshida hits well when he returns? Then you are likely to use Breg at MI vs CI. But the inverse is just as likely, Yoshida stinking and Campbell filling 2b well and Story being healthy. The good thing about Breg is his versatility.
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This doesnt need to be fully flushed out right now. We have question marks at 2B and DH. I dont foresee it being too hard to get Breg into lineup. Theres also attrition.
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Fair
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Jared Jones (the pirates pitcher I alluded to above) has 40.5 trade value units, Abreu has 32. Can probably get there throwing in a 10 surplus value prospec/player. Hed be cheap so you can then get TH and one of Hoffman/Scott no problem.
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And yes, MVP, Manaea is first because Im a wrestling fan