The Red Sox Own Gerrit Cole

The White Walkers are susceptible to Dragonglass (and Valyrian steel). Harry Potter’s connection to Voldemort made him vulnerable. Achilles was indestructible except for his heel. And Gerrit Cole has to play the Red Sox.

Cole is likely a future Hall of Famer. Compared to his peers in that small club, he’s remained healthy and has posted impressive numbers year after year. 

Cole faced the Red Sox several times as a Pirate and an Astro before he signed with the Yankees following the 2019 season. His overall record against the Red Sox is anomolous, but once he joined the Yankees, things took yet another turn for the worse.

Despite the worse overall numbers, his strikeout rate has actually increased to 30.7%, well above his career average. Fans are well aware that the Red Sox strike out frequently when Gerrit Cole is on the mound. However, they also mash the ball against him. So what gives? Why can’t Gerrit Cole pitch well against the Red Sox? Let’s take a trip down memory lane. 

The numbers above represent regular season totals, but now it's the 2021 American League Wild Card Game. Cole is slated to pitch. It's crucial to note that Fenway Park’s bullpens are located immediately adjacent to the right-field bleachers, which means that Cole starts his warmup routine deep in enemy territory. While the opponent's starter gets ready for the game, this provides Boston's famously respectful fans with the opportunity to heckle mercilessly from point-blank range observe. Sox fans are obviously razzing Cole — one whips out a Kermit the Frog puppet, harassing him with each pitch.

Gerrit Cole is a grown man; the reigning unanimous AL Cy Young Award Winner, making $36 million a year. His contract is the largest in franchise history, and the largest for a pitcher in baseball history. He's no stranger to pressure. He's obviously not going to let some raucous Sox fans get to him, right? Wrong. Kermit broke Cole. He lasted only two innings, allowing seven baserunners, two of them on walks, and two on homers. Perhaps that's why Cole's numbers against the Red Sox are so lopsided.

Cole’s fear of Rafael Devers is palpable. Including the postseason, Devers boasts a .357/.450/.972 triple slash line with eight homers and seven walks against Cole. Cole has surrendered 25 home runs to the Red Sox, more than any other team, and Raffy alone counts for 32% of them. The two share an interesting history. On July 7, 2022, Devers launched two home runs off of Cole. The two bombs combined to travel 859 feet. After the game, Cole pleaded for advice on how to pitch to Devers, telling reporters, "I'm open to suggestions." Presumably, he's still open. This July, Cole surrendered Devers' 1,000th career hit.

On September 10, the Yankees' second annual Hispanic Heritage Media Day, a reporter asked Cole to list the most troublesome Latin hitter he’s faced in his career. Well, the reporter tried to ask that question. Cole didn't need to wait to hear the whole thing, interrupting mid-question with his answer: “Rafael Devers.”

"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer," begins the Bene Gesserit "Litany Against Fear," from Frank Herbert's science fiction classic Dune. The full litany reads: "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

Cole’s most recent outing indicated that he might need to memorize the litany. On September 14, in the top of the first inning, Cole hit Devers on a 0-1 count. When Devers came up in the fourth inning with one out and nobody on, he intentionally walked him. It marked Cole’s first intentional walk in seven years. Speculation abounded about whether Cole or manager Aaron Boone decided to waive the white flag. Boone made it clear not only that Cole made the decision, but that he didn't necessarily agree with it.

Devers is in the midst of a slump and dealing with a shoulder injury. Coming into the game, he had batted just .175 with one extra-base hit, a double, over his previous 15 games. Following the IBB, Cole's start unraveled spectacularly. Devers promptly stole second, and Cole retired just three more Red Sox, allowing three runs in the fourth and four runs in the fifth before Boone came to get him.

Gerrit Cole throws four pitches a four-seam fastball, a knuckle curve, a cutter, and a slider. He’s heavily reliant on the four-seamer, throwing it nearly half the time, and for good reason. The pitch averages 96 mph this season. According to Statcast's run values, the pitch was worth 29 runs in 2023, making it the most valuable pitch in baseball for the second time (it also ranked first in 2019, acrruing a whopping 39 runs). Cole is an expert at locating the pitch at or above the top of the zone, where its 12.3 inches of ride make it tempting to swing at but hard to connect with. However, high four-seamers have an Achilles' heel: when batters do connect with them, they tend to go for home runs.

The Sox cracked Cole’s code by annihilating the primary pitch in his repertoire. Fifteen of their 25 home runs came on four-seamers. When they make contact with Cole's high-velocity pitches, the Red Sox are generating runs and hitting no-doubters with triple-digit exit velocities.

Take a look at the Statcast's Pitch Arsenal Stats leaderboard, which shows outcomes for pitchers and hitters split by pitch type. In 2024, 12 Red Sox batters have a positive run value against four-seam fastballs. Spearheaded by Devers, the Red Sox have developed a psychological edge against Gerrit Cole. Their lineup is chock full of players who excel against his bread and butter. Next season, the team’s first series against the Yankees is slated for early June. Eagerly anticipating fans (not to mention Rafael Devers) will have to exercise patience for the team’s next opportunity to dominate Gerrit Cole.