Defensive Dominance: Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran Named Gold Glove Finalists

On Tuesday, Rawlings announced the finalists for the 2024 Gold Glove Awards. Red Sox outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran fin ished in the top three in voting for their respective positions, making them first-time finalists. 

Fenway Park's outfield is one of the quirkiest in baseball, making it a challenging stadium for defenders. The 37-foot Green Monster boasts the highest outfield fence among all 30 big-league parks. Moving across the stadium, right field is bounded by a diminutive 3-foot wall. Balls take odd bounces off the Green Monster, the vast 420-foot center field triangle turns fly balls into triples, deep right field maxes out at 380 feet, and the Pesky Pole, only 302 feet away from home plate and invites would-be foul balls to become home runs.

With more area to cover than the typical right field, the Red Sox must play a competent, athletic right fielder. Enter Wilyer Abreu. Back in September, Alex Cora highlighted Abreu’s defensive skill set, saying "I think he's going to be a guy that's going to hit for power, he can steal bases and probably win a Gold Glove in right field." Cora was spot-on in his analysis. Defending arguably the toughest outfield in baseball as a rookie, Abreu utilized his instincts and arm strength to rack up nine outfield assists, 18 defensive runs saved, and nine fielding runs. Although his footspeed of 27.5 feet-per-second only ranks in the 54th percentile, Statcast credited him with getting better jumps than the average outfielder, and his relentless hustle helped him gain even more ground.

Abreu leaves it all on the field and does whatever he can to help the Sox win. Statcast measured Abreu's arm strength at 94.8 mph, which ranked eighth in all of baseball. He put that strength to use, too, as his arm saved three runs, seventh-most in the game. His hardest-thrown ball clocked in at a staggering 100.7 mph , and the accuracy of Abreu’s cannon allowed him to make difficult plays look routine.

Joining Abreu as finalists are Angels’ right fielder Jo Adell, and Yankees’ right fielder Juan Soto. Abreu graded out as the consensus best right fielder in the league, and he should be lock. That said, Soto's appearance as a finalist — for the second year in a row, no less — is as strong an indicator as anyone needs to know that deservedness doesn't always win the day.

This shouldn’t be up for debate! Soto posted negative stats despite right field in Yankee Stadium being one of the easiest outfield positions in the league. According to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Prevented, he graded out as the worst right fielder in the American League. It's important to note that a fielder must spend at least 698 innings at the position in question in order to be eligible for a Gold Glove, which limits the field to just 10 right fielders. Abreu led all right fielders in both categories, but of those 10 eligible players, he was the only one to put up a positive number in both DRS and FRV.

Moving to center field, Jarren Duran’s defense used to be atrocious. Now, he’s a Gold Glove finalist as a center fielder. Duran has made vast progress across the board, breaking out as a true five-tool player in his third major league season. His defensive metrics didn’t fall short, rising significantly from -5 DRS last year to 17 this season. By tweaking his running form and flyball routes, Duran has become an elite defender, enabling him to catch more balls and generate more outs. 

In his rookie season, Duran ranked second-to-last in route efficiency , falling 1.5 feet behind the average route runner. Duran’s elite speed has provided significant value on the basepaths, but now he’s employing it on the defensive side of his game. Running less like a lizard this year, his routes took significant strides. Check out this play from June. Blue Jays’ designated hitter, Justin Turner, hit a fly ball with a 45% catch probability to center field.

With 6.1 seconds of opportunity time, Duran caught Turner’s fly ball 113 feet away from his original position in center field. He harnessed his speed to close in on the ball, navigated the warning track, catch it, and prevent the runner from advancing. His arm marked yet another area of defensive development.

Given his defensive improvements, it’s no surprise that Duran was nominated. Winning a Gold Glove Award would be the icing on the cake of his breakout season. However, his path to winning a Gold Glove award is trickier than Abreu’s.

Toronto center fielder Daulton Varsho and Houston center fielder Jake Meyers best Duran in UZR, OAA, DRP, and FRV, and it's important to keep in mind that the table above only lists each player's value while playing center field. Varsho spent nearly 40% of his playing time in left field, and DRS, UZR, and FRV all rate him as the best overall outfielder in baseball. Still, being nominated is a tremendous step forward for Duran, especially considering his previous defensive struggles.

Despite its poor overall defense, the Boston outfield is elite. No matter your metric of choice, the Red Sox outfielders rank among the best in baseball. Their primary focus for defensive improvement next year should be on strengthening the infield and catching. Had he spent enough time in center to be eligible, Ceddanne Rafaela would have been a deserving finalist. He put up DRS of 12 and FRV of 6 in just 631 innings in center field. With a healthy infield defense, Rafaela should see more time in center, hopefully netting his own Gold Glove votes. The Red Sox haven't won a Gold Glove in five years, with Mookie Betts being the last player to earn the award in 2019. It’s fulfilling to see Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu receive the recognition they deserve and have a shot at ending the team’s defensive accolade drought.

Craig Breslow stands at a crossroads. Chaim Bloom provided the team with solid players, but any potential roster upgrade is ambiguous. A Gold Glove could enhance Abreu's trade value, but it would also make even clearer just how big a hole he'd be leaving behind in right field. Jarren Duran could be traded for an ace, but who’s to say that he won’t repeat the 6.7 fWAR production that is certain to earn him down-ballot MVP votes? Juan Soto would help the team more offensively than he'd hurt defensively, but he'd also spell the end of this elite defensive unit. Breslow has his work cut out for him this offseason. 

Sox fans can tune in to Baseball Tonight on ESPN to watch the announcement of the Gold Glove winners on November 3 at 8:30 PM.