The issue of Rick's replacement at this stage is misdirection. Making him a QO is similar to Kimbrel, even if you think he won't take it. It can be a negotiating tool to get a little better deal (shorter term/lower AAV) If not taken, the outcome could be very similar to Kimbrel and Keuchel sitting out a few months. The question is what term and cost will Rick assign to himself, compared to how much will it cost to fill 180-200 innings.
Who is his replacement if gone ?? Unknown right now, but does someone think there will be no starters on the trade or FA market next winter ? Personally, I think Porcello is a reliable long term starter with little history of arm , shoulder or knee problems. I would make him a fair offer and lock down another part of the rotation to go with Price and Sale. Or, as as I said, if DD has no interest in going forward for other reasons that we don't know, move Rick mid-season and get some value back. Who would replace him this July ?? The same person who would take his turn if he falls down in the shower tomorrow . Steven Wright/Wrong, assuming he can pitch at all, which is questionable. He is reaching his 80 day get out of jail card in a few weeks. Or Darwinzon . Or Sonny Gray for all I know.