Hugh2

I think more than one would be needed. Lackey also had surgery in the 2011 offseason and missed all of 2012. He had about 1/2 more to recover. Of course, TJ takes longer to recover as well. It might make sense to compare guys who have had the internal brace surgery, but in general guys pitch less innings and are restricted their first years back. I'm sure there are case by case basis where people deviate away from the mean.

Perhaps, we certainly shouldn't complain if we get one really good year out of him.

Admittedly I do not know much between the two surgery other than internal brace has a quicker recovery time. But I do know with TJ pitchers workloads are typically reduced their first year back. Stricter pitch counts, total innings, pitchers per inning etc.

Not really, it's his first year back from surgery, guys typically don't ramp right back up to the same workload their first years back.

That's if he pitches over 140 innings, given that he's coming back from injury I think it's more likely the team option is picked up than the mutual. Mutual options are almost never exercised.

Ok, so past injury and rehabbing aren't exactly the same thing. Also, I wonder what percentage of MLB pitchers today have had some kind of past procedure, and I'd love to see that stat compared to 20/40/60 years ago. I'd also like to take a list of all MLB players 28 and over who have never had an injury and see how many get injured in 2025. It sucks, and obviously you can't dismiss it, but the reality is if you're signing a MLB pitcher in todays game that odds that they have had or will have some kind of surgery is as high as it's ever been. There's no such thing as safe pitching.

I find the Giolito contract fascinating. If he doesn't throw over 140 innings the Sox retain a $14 million dollar player option. It's perfectly plausible that he pitches well enough for that contract but it being his first full season back his innings are limited.

ADD: Has there been any indication of where Giolito is at for opening day? I'd have to imagine he'd be working out at full strength NOW if that was going to happen.

I'm curious as to who you the 1/2 is? The Sandoval signing is a play for 2026, it seems everyone who is expected to be part of the 2025 team as of right now will be there come spring time. Whitlock?

Can we please not solicit a curse back into existence. I don't plan on living 80 years longer.

If Sasaki was about going to the highest bidder, he likely would have waited an offseason. He's going to command the highest bonus this IFA class and that's for certain. But if he wanted to come to Boston, or was sold on coming to Boston. The bonus is probably around $4-$4.5 million; a team like Boston could trade for bonus pool space to keep in the rest of their commitments. Shohei Ohtani didn't eat up all of the Angels pool space; he signed for a little over $2 million. So I'm throwing my hat in the ring and projecting a bonus of $4.25 million for Sasaki.

There's also the risk of paying a guy over $200 million and he gets hurt. Certainly Chris Sale on your roster injured under contract hamstrings the team a lot more than the guy you signed for one year. I'm also not overly concerned with the stats a guy puts up a year he is injured or working his way back from injury, it certainly takes more than a year to return to normal for many players. Les not forget that these moves are not uncommon for even the NY Mets or the Dodgers, we've just grown accustomed to Boston doing so without swimming in the deep end. They didn't get Buehler and Sandoval, they got Buehler, Sandoval, and Crochet. To me that high end ace talent changes how Buehler looks in the rotation. The cost is $21 million, the upside is a guy who is well worth it and nets you a draft pick. A good coaching and scouting department should be able to identify the guys who they can work with who are more likely to return to a peak performance or something close to it. Sox haven't been that great in that department in recent years but I will give Breslow and friends their chance. I also don't think they're done, we have almost 2 months left until pitchers and catchers report.

As is for any team if they lost 4 guys to the IL

Crochet/Houck/Giolito/Bello/Buehler. The ceiling of that rotation is as high as we’ve seen in years, with a higher floor and more depth as well.

Literally two years of that was because of TJ. Last year he didn't look great. Is that because he isn't the same guy? or because he's still climbing his way back? His post season run certainly seem to indicate the later. If the Sox only signed him I'd be pissed, but with Crochet also added I think it's a great addition.

Walker was a Cy-Young candidate back in 2021, while Pivetta has never even SNIFFED a top ten.

Sox payroll, who I trust more than Cots puts the payroll at $24 million under the luxury tax

I also suspect that it's not all about money. If it was, he would wait a year and take a few hundrew million dollars more. Even Ohtani only took up about 1/2 of LA's pool. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sasaki only get around $5-$6 million and not $10. It depends on where he wants to go. I wonder if he's holding up the Burnes market.

I love how they're going after arms they like, Buehler was projected to go to Boston months earlier because he has the exact profile Breslow/Bailey like in an arm. Not only do you get a solid guy if he's on, but then you can Q.O. the guy and net a draft pick out of him as well. Would be pretty nifty if the Sox turned themselves into the rehab destination. Net bounce back seasons and picks. Of course, this works because you put someone like Crochet at the top of your rotation who should be competition for a Cy Young next year.

the 2025 one

With Buehler signing the Payroll is at $216. $4 million dollars away from $220 million threshold I BOLDLY predicted the Sox would eclipse. $24 million below the LT threshold apx, makes you wonder if a Crochet is in the cards for this year. That alone might eat up the rest of their space. That and/or a Bregman signing may also take them over the LT this year. I'm starting to think they go over that line again now.

Love this deal

SOX sign Buehler for 1 year $21 million

I suspect If Anthony/Mayer/Campbell all graduate they will take a big step back. They have to keep drafting good.