Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Yes $40 is the number being reported. For luxury tax purposes the 30 million number is the one that really matters. The reality is we have no ideal what he's actually being paid cash wise. It could be $19 million dollars and starting in several years he could be getting a few million a year for a determined period of time. The timing matters. $5 million dollars ten years from now is not $5 million today. What's being reported is the NPV of the contract, I think that's the best we can go off of for now is $30.9 million. He will be physically getting paid less money than $30 million dollars in 2025.
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EH, now more than ever it's the LT number that matters. So I'd say he's more like the 30.9 million dollar man. In the spirit of the conversation I'll ask when is the last time the Red Sox had a $30M man? I think the answer may be the same.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
While I still think there's a small chance for another bullpen arm to be added (Robertson)? I think the roster is pretty much set. Sure, there will be some battles in camp and an odd man out of two but I'm fairly certain our 26 man roster is now in this organization. They will be playing games in a week. -
Yes, I'm sure Alex Bregmans offensive production is reliant upon banging trash cans. 🙄 You guys do realize we have like......three Alex Bregman threads going???
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Do we believe everything they say? alternatively, if they wanted to move Yoshida or at least not cause drama would they openly say they don't have confidence in him playing the field? If Campbell and Anthony look ready, do you block one of those guys so Masa can play LF? I don't think that would happen at this point. I'm not saying he wont' play any LF this year, but his days of starting in LF are over, in Boston at least.
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He also gives a guy who can stay on the field and be a starter. Real leadership in the clubhouse.
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IDK, but we most certainly are not 30 million under, also I doubt COTS or anyone has the correct number yet because no one knows what is deferred so the luxury tax payroll cost is impossible to predict at this point. Although it's almost certainly somewhere around 35 million give or take. I heard $30 is being reported but I don't know if I believe that.
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Snell, or someone else, anyone else better than Buehler. I'm actually really high on Buehler, but pitchers of his caliber with less injury risk this year were available but for more $$$. If you're taking lessons from the Dodgers I assume $$$ is less of an issue.
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I have plenty of sin, and plenty of stones.
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Well if they're going to do that they should have just given Soto 1 billion and landed Snell to go along with Crochet.
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Because it would have to be an insane amount of deferred money to be under the CBT. Impossible to know without knowing the amount and the timeline but roughly half would have to be deferred to get back to the CBT. It's a really good guess that they're above it
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No, now they will just be pissed that he spent too much, or didn't spend it on the right player. At the end of the day they have to go out there and play games now.
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That's exactly what I thought of when I was back spacing and deleting my last response
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Buster Olney is tweeting that the NPV of the contract is $90 million. Which is insane, they'd have to have a lot of money deferred for that to happen, like around half. Feels weird. and $30 million per year still puts them over the CBT so not sure what the advantage is unless the Sox want the option to be able to be able to make an extension without going over the 2nd threshold. Or two and 3rd.
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I use Red Sox Payroll, I trust them more than anyone. Of course they only do the Sox. You can go to Cots, Fangraphs, Spotrac and get 3 different numbers. You're probably right.
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We also haven't seen the deferred money yet. Although I'm sure it probably only changed the NPV by a few million. The cap hit is actually probably somewhere around 36-37 million.
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People who aren't happy because they think it's an overpay. What wouldn't have been any overpay? what was FMV for Bregman?
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no, but I think their payroll sits only 1-2 million lower than Toronto and I figure an extension or two is coming. I also think the Sox are more likely than Toronto at this point to take on $$$ at the deadline. But perhaps not, perhaps Toronto goes hard at the deadline taking one last swing before they lose Vladdy if they're competitive come July.
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I'm not going to say that I'm not a little shocked myself. But like you said it's fine, really looking at the numbers it seems reasonable to forgoes those painful 34+ seasons.
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Without doing any actual math I'd guess that somewhere around 75% of his contract would have to deferred for them to be under the CBT. They're going over.
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If Devers looks horrible at 3B this year, I wonder how long they sit around and let him clog up the infield while Bregman is picking it up the middle. Of course, if Devers looks even just ok, one has to wonder what the Sox thoughts are on the position if Bregman opts out after this year. Sure, they have options at 2nd so maybe they move Campbell there, but maybe they view him as their LF???
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Bregman FWar the last 3 years has averaged 4.66. If players are getting around $7.5 million per in free agency and Bregman were to average that in Boston he would be worth about $105 million dollars. If Bregman is not worth that, it's because he has fallen off a cliff. If he falls off a cliff, imagine being on the hook to pay him $170 million+ over the next 6 years? That would be worse. The $5 million a year overpay, is not as extreme as people are making it out to be, and it's a more than fair premium to have the player on only 3 years and pay him until 33 years old without having to carry him at 34, 35, 36.
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I think we might be edging out Toronto now for that 5th spot. After that it's the two NY teams, LA and Philly.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If the Sox are going over the LT this year, then it makes sense to start extending guys now. I'm not sure whom, but I think we see at least one prominent extension this spring. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I haven't heard what he said yesterday so perhaps he's changed his tune, but middle of last year Crochet had said any team trading for him better be offering an extension if they want him to pitch in the playoffs (paraphrasing). If they're negotiating, it could just be words to up that deal.....or not