Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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No, I meant when I said when I said many fans. I feel many many of us, even the best of us who know better at time fall into that trap.
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I meant that more from the progression being linear from player to player. Two players can have identical stat lines that will likely translate differently to higher levels. E.G. Players A & B can both have stat lines of .300/.380/.500 but player A might have average bat speed, he's able to feast on pitchers who don't throw as hard, can' t find the strike zone, or tip their pitches to close the gap to player B who has a much better chance of replicating that stat line at the next level. What I meant was, fans just look at the box scores and say "ohhh if he can do that at the MLB level he's a superstar" but its' not that simple, scouting matters.
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Good points, most fans don't see the game this way but there is a big difference between hitting AA and hitting MLB and the mistake many make is they think the progression should be linear from player to player. It is not.
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http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/08/transaction-analysis-breaking-down_2.html Sounds like he should be just as good as Brentz out there, it seems like he needs more familiarity with the monster. Lets just hope he's not overmatched at the plate.
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Good point, but hey I didn't say it was a perfect apples to apples comparison. No doubt he's being rushed, some guys make the adjustment quick others do not. Lets hope the move doesn't backfire on the sox.
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From what I've heard he's been taking reps at 3B for at least a week now.
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One has to wonder if they were able to land Carlos Beltran if they'd be making this move. It seems reasonably unlikely given that they were in on him and the trade deadline passed yesterday. One has to ponder if they aren't 100% sure he's ready, but then again if they didn't think he could be ready and could help the team now I doubt they promote him. To be fair, I don't think there is such thing as being 100% certain a guy is ready so if you have the chance to bring in a proven vet who you know can contribute that would seem to be a more viable option, hence....the push for Beltran. Andrews push reminds me of Ellsburys run through the system in 07, lets hope the results are similar. Worst case scenario is he struggles and the team is no better off than they already were. If he performs not only will it help but his value will increase as well, and playing well will increase his value much more than struggling would decrease it. I'm not 100% convinced he's not on the trade talk table in the off season if the Sox decide to make a run at Chris Sale.
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Other sources saying they are pushing harder than anyone else. 70 minutes until the trade deadline, teams are posturing, call it 50/50 someone trades for Sale at this point.
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I can see the Sox offering EROD/Benintendi/Kopech for Sale, with CWS saying we'll give you Quintana for that package but if you want Sale you have to throw in Devers. I wouldn't disagree that theres a good chance he stays put, but I'm not unconvinced that they are just posturing by saying they will stay put.
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If we give up Benintendi I like trying to develop Swihart in LF. I'd give up EROD/Benintenid/Kopech/Devers. It's a heavy package.....but we've seen what the market for pitching is.
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Think of it this way, the average fan let alone Sox fan ever hears of other teams failed prospects. Can anyone in here name 5 prospects in other teams organizations let alone one??? We don't see other teams Henry Owens, we don't see other teams Allen Websters, we don't see their Lars Andersons.....we only know who they are when they turn into JBJ's and Mookie Betts. If anything, other teams prospects fail more often than our own.
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A year ago I'd easily agree with you but if anything that is way too light the way the market has been going. Relievers are netting multiple top 100 prospects.
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I'd start with Benintendi, EROD, Kopech for Sale. Will probably have to throw in more but that package is a pretty solid starting point and reportedly the CWS really really like Benintendi a lot.
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We've already spent a lot of resources, I'm done sending top prospects for relief pitchers and rentals. This team should go big or wait until the offseason. Sale or no sale.
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I don't buy signing a 1B/DH as a must either. Assuming that we see no improvements from a more well seasoned and healthy Swihart/Vasquez/Shaw/Holt then the lineup maintains the status quo by adding a big bat. I think if you subtracted David Ortiz right now we still have one of the best lineups in baseball, but with or without Ortiz if you were to add a TOP of the rotation starter then we arguably become the WS favorites next year. Imagine our lineup without Ortiz, but a rotation of Sale/Price/Porcello/Pomeranz/Wright. I also wouldn't rule out Owens or Erod figuring things out. If JBJ was still a .220 hitter, and Bogaerts and Betts were 75% the hitters they are now but Price and EROD were both pitching like TOTRS I'd say the exact opposite. That we can go with our current staff and we should allocate our resources on hitting. If you have to trade prospects to bring in the pitcher (which is pretty much a given at this point) then I can reconcile also signing a guy like Encarnation. Which is fairly realistic if this team seriously wants to make a run at a guy like Sale in the offseason.
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If I'm swinging a deal, I better be getting a TOTRS back. We've given up enough top prospects for #3's and relievers. I understand, and love this core going forward. I could live with Swihart in LF > Benintendi if Benitendi could headline a package for Sale. I'm ok with a Shaw/Hill platoon at 3B for 2 years until Devers is ready if Moncada could headline a Syndergaard (not saying he's for sale) deal. Things could look a lot more bright if Pom, and Price look really good down the stretch and Porcello and Wright continue to do what they've done all year. Things could look even better than that if Erod can pull it together. With the lack of my last point or the failure to land another TOTRS, this team just strikes me as an offensive juggernaut that is always good enough to get to the post season but doesn't have that extra ingredient to win the world series. This core is good enough to be relevant for the next 4-5 years with zero additions but we still have a hole in the rotation. All other holes on this team seem superficial to having a pitcher right now to me.
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I'd rather spend the money on locking up some of our own guys so we can feel better about going out and trading for an ACE. Do you really trust giving the ball to Price, Pomeranz, or even Porcello game 1 of the world series??? I think that takes more priority than the 7th or 8th biggest concern with the offense. A Hill/Shaw combo at 3rd (assuming Panda is done) should be fine for .5-1 years, and Benintendi may be ready by next year and Swihart could still be in the fold for next season in LF. Those aren't sure fire answers but they are pretty darn good when you consider the first 6 hitters in your lineup are pretty darn good. We need pitching, this team has enough rotten assets on it so there is zero reason to go out and start given big bucks to 30 year old DH types.
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I figured I missed someone in there. I kind of like this bullpen in 2017 though, Kimbrel and Smith should both be back and I'm optimistic with what Barnes can become. I think Light, Hembree, and Martin have potential as well. I would like to see them resign Ziegler as well.
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Ok so you're talking about 10 games then. Since when does 10 games define an established MLB player? Sure he's been disappointing so far this year but if we are evaluating team needs I think we need to have a little bit more foresight than what's going to happen over a week or two of baseball. The biggest hole on this team is it's missing an ACE.
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This team has zero luck with it's bullpen. Go figure the year we win the world series that Koji Uehera emerges but we have a long list of bringing guys in here with lousy results. Eric Gagne was a failure, Joel Hanaran was a failure, Andrew Bailey was a disaster, then there was Mark Melancon. Melancon was great before he came to Boston and Great when he left but sucked here....go figure. Kimbrel has been ok, but has managed to land himself on the D.L. Carson Smith is a promising young arm but has contributed nothing himself as he's landed himself on the D.L.
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That and they have a lot of money coming off the books soon as well. We should enjoy the suck while it lasts.
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Porcello has 100% turned it around. Effectively he had one half bad season adjusting to a new team. Over the past 365 days in 29 starts he's gone 18-6 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. If he keeps that up, he's going to look like an absolute steal for only 4 years 82 million in his prime years. Porcello is kinda a guy now, he might be a #1 on some teams but he strikes me as more of a #2 #3 on a WS caliber team. Definitely a guy to keep around in my opinion but we need to add to the staff, or hope that Price can turn it around which I think he will. Still, I'm not sure I want the ball in the hands of Price for a game 1.
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I'm good with Lucroy, the price for admission this trade deadline is just absolutely 100% insane and the offense is great + we have good defensive catchers here now so it's really a luxury at this point.
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Last time I checked Hill is batting .268 with a .745 OPS. Not great, but not bad either. He's also not a starter or a stud on this team he's a platoon player. I agree with southpaw the offense is fine and just in a rut. If you look at any team, even a world series champion you'll see stretches where they lose, even to horrible teams at times. If this team picks it back up and gets hot it will win....even if the competition is tough. The long term problem has been and remains pitching on this team. I don't buy your "we don't put the fear in a pitcher[er] that Toronto hitters do" Good.....I would love other teams to not respect this offense, they will probably continue to put up great numbers overall if they do.
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I forget where I read this, but I saw a comparison to the average WAR for top 100 prospects, tiered 1-10 11-25 and so forth. The average of all our prospects easily beat the average, and every other teams as well. I'll try to find the article, but it suggests that if anything our prospects are undervalued.