Hugh2

Yes, China and the Philippines. I mean WOW, two shinning examples of how we should treat our fellow humans. Where is your humanity? where is your empathy? a bullet in the head????? really??? What if that was your son, daughter, wife, brother, sister, cousin, or loved one??? you sicko.

conversely the more complex a model or equation is the more likely it is to factor in every scenario and possibility to measure a more accurate outcome.

Not that I completely disagree but we traded from a position of strength to get a need. We had Bogaerts at the time who was the #4 prospect in baseball looking like he was MLB ready. In this case, we traded for a position of need with a pitcher for a pitcher, with that pitcher being arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. Also Peavy was a proven a starter, not as dominant as he once was but you were confident he'd give you innings and pitch like a #3. Pomeranz was generally unproven as a starter and his history and recent track record screamed fatigue or injury which we saw materialize. Again, in a sense we traded for a need both times and to varying degrees succeeded, but I think the price we paid for Pomeranz at the very least has a chance to be much higher.

Prospects flop, no one has a crystal ball and if they did the draft would be a perfect linear chart of highest to lowest WAR (generally speaking) going from the #1 pick down. Better prospects and higher picks tend to pan out more often and have a higher chance of succeeding at an increasing rate the the higher up you go in rankings but to some extent it is and always will be a crap shoot.

I was never that impressed with Ranaudo. He was a top 100 but never a top 50 prospect, and guys like that flop all the time. When Anthony Ranaudo was a top prospect in the Sox system the system was very weak. I remember in 2011 he was our #3 ranked guy behind Ryan Kalish and Will Middlebrooks. I never saw him as more of a #3 if everything panned out and when his secondaries didn't developed I had hoped he could carve out a role in the bullpen but he never got that chance here and his velocity never really returned either.

I'm sorry but with all due respect I always found that argument unreasonable. Do you think teams try more or less to draft the BPA? Every team is always trying to draft the guy who they think has the best chance to be the next Trout or Kershaw with every pick. The reality is, it's a crap shoot. Even top 10 picks who have an astronomically higher chance of being MLB players than the rest of the draft bust 50% of the time. If you go back and look at the 1st round and top 10 picks in every draft one thing you'll notice is for every team that really hit on a player, usually completely busted on a top 10 player a year or two within that pick. If we are looking back 10 years from now and it looks like we struck gold with Benintendi and Groome and Ball isn't even a reliever how much different will we look than other teams who drafted great in the top 10? The Orioles struck gold with Machado and Gausman and Bundy look like they are contributors now as well now that they are healthy. You hear a lot of people talk about those guys, but no one ever talks about Matt Hobgood who was a complete BUST. Sandwhiched inbetween their Nick Markakais pick were 3 top 10 pitching busts in Wade Townsend, Chris Smith, and Adam Loewen. Pretty much ever team that has had mutliple top 10 picks within consecutive years has drafted a bust for every star they drafted. I do think there is something to the argument that the Sox need to figure out what is going on with their pitcher development but to some degree I do think it is draft position. Think of it this way over the past 10 years the 5th best pitcher drafted between the 20th and 30th pick has been Daniel Bard 4.3 WAR so far. Also things change, I remember a few years ago the fan cry in 2013 was how Boston just couldn't produce outfielders we HAD to draft an outfielder. Yet here we are with a Benintendi, JBJ, Betts two of which were already in the system. Also, Swihart could make a splash in the outfield and there's even some talk that Moncada may eventually end up there. Again, I think we have to accept the reality of how much of a crap shoot a draft really is. I'm sure they don't draft a bust like Ball due to lack of trying, and if Bentendi becomes the player he appears to be then they did pretty darn good for having 2 top 10 picks.

I think the Sox are committed to HanRam playing 1B next year. Depending on where they go at the DH position I could see someone like Shaw splitting time with him there. I don't see a 3B move, I think they forsee Moncada ready early to mid season and will go with some combination of Sandoval/Shaw/Holt/Hill. In a perfect world Pablo plays well enough to unload at least some of his contract and Moncada takes over. Rotation depth is a concern, and you can never have enough bullpen arms. I would seriously be ok with going after Chapman, even if he gets overpaid we've learned that around the trade deadline teams are more than over willing to pay for bullpen upgrades. Kimbrel was too shaky for me and with Uehara gone and a question mark over Smiths return we could really use a lights out reliever. If Kimbrel/Chapman/Smith are all lights out then awesome......if it looks like someone like Barnes or Kelly really emerge in the bullpen you know you could easily get rid of those guys can probably get back good prospects too.

As far as I'm concerned the season completely resets this Thursday.

Low K pitchers can be very good, but much often than not they are NOT. It is more common for a high K hitter to be good. So while I agree with Moon that low K pitchers can be effective I think it is generally true that K's are over rated for hitters but not for pitchers.

If the Sox did rescind the trade then in August you have either Joe Kelly or Henry Owens making starts every 5th day. I think he'll be fine for 17' and 18' but what worries me now is the same thing that worried me back on July 14th, and that is his durability. Now that may not be an issue next year with more strength and innings built up but it was entirely reasonable to assume he would break down at the end of this year and he has. He helped get us here, and he could be a big part of the future but I'm not sure how much he can be trusted going forward in 2016. This would be a really really really good time for Erod or Clay to turn it on and both have shown signs of doing so down the stretch. It will be interesting to see how Drew does next year.

Regardless of what the Padres withhold about Pomeranz this is exactly what I said would happen to Drew. To my own discredit, anyone should have been able to predict this type of innings increase would lead to either injury or diminished results later in the season if not both, as many others did state.

My biggest concern for Pomeranz when we traded Espinoza for him was I thought there was a significantly good chance he would break down towards the end of the year. If this is the case, we are right back to where we were looking for a middle guy. Still, if Pomeranz can build on his innings this year and be the guy he was in the first half going forward it's not a horrible trade. Luckily, Buchholz and Erod have stepped it up lately. Pomeranz has been really good out of the pen in the past, perhaps he can be a weapon there in the playoffs. On the other hand, it would seem risky to throw him in that role without any recent experience right when every inning matters.

I get all that, but that's all it is. They mine as well just fine him, yet I still think it's a light punishment.

It makes sense. You can't just rescind the deal, there isn't anything horribly wrong with him as if he needs TJ and is useless for the rest of his contract. It's just as hard to try and negotiate another player, how do you do that? I think the best, most logical solution is to give the Sox a draft. Perhaps I'm being a homer to suggest the Sox get something in return, but at the very least I think it's fair that they LOSE a draft pick. Perhaps the Sox don't get it but they should lose theirs. But the suspension is equivalent to ZERO penalty at all. This is a team not in contention, and it's after the trade deadline and he will still get to deal during the winter meetings. In the end all this is, is a small fine because he will lose a months pay.

He's right though, those numbers are not going to be accurate because guys are hot/cold right now and will not put up slash lines comparable to their season lines to date. Stats are volatile in the short run for all players. However, there are so few games left they can't really differentiate that much at all at this point.

That's averaging about 200 IP per season. That's not exactly high, a lot of pitchers aren't even in the league at age 21 so they are still accumulating innings just not MLB innings. Milb innings put just as much stress on the arm as MLB innings. Some of the best pitchers have been work horses their entire career with little to no arm problems. What is very concerning about Sale is his mechanics, they work for him and tinkering with them might regress him to non ace status but they just spell TJ.

I actually don't think BA weighs upside anymore than anyone else. The lower in the rankings you go the more fluidity there is between prospects. You can make a very strong argument for why #1 is better than #10. But it's almost more of a preference between 98 and 108. The further away a guy is the more tools matter over stats, stats matter more later on because the tools don't mean squat if they don't translate into results. Guys like Ockimey go bust WAY more often than not which is why he's not a top 50 guy.....but he's got talent.

Porcello pitched well tonight. He only really had one bad inning and it was more fluky than anything yet he limited the damage.

So Kluber has a 1.04 Whip which is pretty much identical. If that's the game you want to play then Kluber has more complete games, more shut outs, a lower ERA, more innings pitched, a lower H/9, less HR's, less HBP, more K's, lower FIP(x), and a higher ERA+ To be fair with the exception of strike outs he's only marginally better than Porcello who has shown better control with less BB/9, lower whip and more wins. Looking at it closer, I feel my opinion may have shifted. Porcello definitely closes the gap but it's not like it was a ridiculous statement to put Kluber ahead of Rick...actually if I had to vote for one right now (taking my Sox biases out of the voting) I'd still put Kluber ahead of him. Also, the Guardians are in 1st place with a more commanding lead for what it's worth. Anyways.....go Sox!!!

W/L are often over-rated when it comes to Cy-Young voting. Exhibit A. Felix Hernandez.

It was a no brainer Clay was a goner after the season, and the option wasn't even an option. Leave it to Clay to at least make it a conversation at this point. Still, you can book him for either being injured or sucking for 1/2 the season next year. Can we live with Price/Porcello/Pomeranz/Wright/Erod next year? can Wright repeat, and can Erod show more consistency and contend for a rotation spot. Still, as 700 said Clays problem is durability and I wonder if the money is better spent elsewhere. I'd love to see a trade to update the rotation and use the money to help bring in an Encarnation type.

If the voting were held today, I think theres a strong chance that's right where he'd land. #3. Somewhere......Ben C. is smiling. Or crying.

If you wanted to go by a pure statistical analysis by weighing heavily what these guys have done during the 2nd have and particularly the past 30 days then the rotation looks like: Price.Porcello.Pomeranz.Buchholz. So perhaps you piggy back Erod or throw him in the pen, my only issue is I don't think Erod has ever pitched out of the pen, so I'm not sure how I feel about him being in the bullpen, honestly he could end up being great there. Both Buchholz and Pomeranz have shown the ability to pitch well out of the bullpen.

I know people in here hate WAR but in the 2nd half Porcello is tied for 1st with A.L. pitchers with a 2.1 FWar, and Price is 4th behind him Sale and Verlander. Going down the stretch we have 2 of the top 4 pitchers in the American league right now. SP(1) Price SP(2) Porcello the top 2 is easy. I'm not sure how I'd play them after that, for the most part I'm done with Clay Buchholz but we all know how good he can be when he's on and if he's still in the middle of one of these great stretches I'd have no Problem throwing him as the #3 guy in the playoffs. I'd love to put Pomeranz 4th, but Erod has been better down the stretch and Pomeranz has experience and a track record of being effective out of the pen. Still I might be wary of a guy who is still as green as Eduardo starting a playoff game and it's not like Drew has sucked down the stretch.

Porcello ain't no Cy Young if the season ended today it would be a two horse race between Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. But if the Yankees or Tigers were to make a run down the stretch and these guys were part of it then I think Tanaka and Verlander could really make a strong case for themselves. But I think Porcello definitely belongs with those guys in that second tier behind Kluber and Sale with Tanaka, Verlander and I'd throw Quintana in there too. He's definitely earned all the praise he gets this year and is easily one of the biggest reason why we are where we are. I've reached the point tow here I'm comfortable and confident every time he takes the hill. I love the control; out of all the guys in the Cy Young conversation he has the lowest BB/9 rate.