Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Against RHP (which he was pretty much brought up to face) it was more like 27% but with a .966 OPS and a .400 OBP. And no Shaw has not been good vs. RHP. He's stunk against LHP all season and I was criticized by some on this board back in late may for suggesting we go after a RHH infielder who could spell him at 3B. That aside, since June 1st Shaw is batting .214/.289/.369 vs RHP for a whooping OPS of .658. I'm not saying Moncada didn't look horrifying last night and that could signal he might not be any better than a pinch runner for this season. But given where you were with Shaw you absolutely made the right decision to give him a shot. We are in the middle of a pennant race for crying out loud, if you have a chance of drastically improving a position in house you give it a go.
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If you take defense out of the equation Heyward is a 2.4 WAR player...that seems about spot on to me.
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Heyward is regarded as one of the best fielders in the league and he's only really had 2 great seasons and 2 good even if you look at WAR. And in 2013 Victorino put up a plus .800 OPS with clutch hitting and gold glove defense. If anything your examples show that WAR is doing exactly what it's suppose to do and value defense.
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What year are we talking about?
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No it's only an error if you use two different types of WAR interchangeably. It would be like two different sites arguing on whether or not reaching on an error should be weighed into OBP. If you used just ONE you're still weighing every player against each other on an equal basis. So again I ask you, name a specific time FWar or Bwar got it grossly wrong. If your argument is strong, you should be able to give me at least ONE example if not many.
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The team was justified and made the right move giving Moncada a shot, however if he proves he's not ready then he's not ready. I wouldn't NOT start him again but at this point you at least have to sit him for the next game or two. I still think worse case scenario he makes the team better as a pinch runner.
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Give me an example where WAR grossly over rates or under rates a guy.
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I don't think it will matter, if a player has to run 20 yards to get to a ball he has to run 20 yards.
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Yes I used the term scared very liberally and subjectively. I don't actually think people are cowering in the corners trembling in fear when words like UZR/150 come on the screen; although the thought of people curling up in the fetal position at the sight of defensive stats is pretty amusing. What I really meant is when something is new and doesn't have a strong track record or people don't understand it they tend to find reason to dismiss it or just outright dismiss it. I suspect a lot of the other technology that is coming out that tracks a fielders route towards baseballs and the angle and speed in which it travels could further improve defensive metrics one day to the point that they won't really need trained observers.
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Yoan Moncada played strictly 2nd for the Elefantes de Cienfuegos in 2012 and 2013 according to baseball reference.
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lets also not forget he's a young 21 year old who skipped AAA and was rushed to the majors. But he also put up a .395 OBP and just started to show his power. I think theres more power in the bat as well. It's definitely not great, but its not really a concern of mine at this point either.
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Yes but Hernandez has been much more age advances than Holt was, sometimes young skinny guys struggle. Mookie Betts had a .658 OPS his first year in the system but after putting on 15 LB's his bat just took off. Scouts agree that Hernandez filled in his skinny frame a little bit and became a much better hitter. Look at what Hernandez has done at each age vs. Holt. Not saying Hernandez is clearly better than Holt as I said Holt has a track record.....But you can't say he's in a different "stratosphere" to me that implies a stark difference like Comparing Holt to Trout.
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I have the only real big difference is in OBP .373 to .318 but the rest of very similar numbers. Marco also has reached the majors 2 years younger than Holt whose lifetime .704 OPS doesn't exactly make him a great offensive player. Marco Hernandez has shown an obvious up progression in the upper minors which has carried over into the majors and as of so far he has much better number than Holt at the MLB level. It's a sss though, I'll admit and as I said earlier the only thing Holt has over Hernandez is a track record.....but a .704 career OPS track record doesn't exactly put someone in a "different stratosphere"
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so did you by looking at one level of milb ball and ignore everything else. Also, age should be taken into context as well.
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Marco's OPS down there is also .787 this year, there's not a big difference in their stats. Marco's first month in AAA weigh down his overall stats. keep in mind he's also 23 and when Holt was 23 he was in AA and his numbers weren't as good. Also, if I wanted to cherry pick stats.....Marco has a better MLB slash line than Holt. I think he needs more time to judge, but I don't think there's anything wrong with the statement that Hernandez might be better than him because I think he could be with the bat.
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I disagree, the only thing Holt has over Hernandez is a track record at the MLB level.
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There's a big difference between subjective and voodoo. By that definition an umpires strike zone is voodoo, I think all non cynical baseball fans would agree that while umpires can have a bad day and be a little off a strike zone is subjective. It might vary but it's pretty darn close, and like Moon said they have trained observers. Even though we know umpires are imperfect we trust them enough to never blame the umpire for a pitcher with bad control. No one would ever say that we can't trust Henry Owens WHIP, and BB/9 because umpires strike zones are voodoo....you just wouldn't. Defensive metrics are very similar in this sense, people just don't see it that way because it's new and what is new scares people.
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Betts kind of reminds me of a younger Carlos Beltran. Great tools across the board on both sides of the ball.
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Agree 100%
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I got no problem going after either Chapman or Jansen, then after the big name revert back to bring in a bunch of guys and see who sticks. I also would not be surprised to see a guy like Barnes take a step forward next year.
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I highly doubt in the history of baseball one relief pitcher has ever been the difference between a last place team that's competing and even been in 1st place for much of the year. I don't think this team would be where it is without him......but Kimbrel isn't a guy making an 18 win difference.
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I do remember at the time it was considered a huge hometown discount. Maybe not as extreme as it seems now for two reasons. First off salary inflation has been on the rise every single year and 12.5 million seems a lot cheaper today than it did several years ago. Also, I think Pedroias year this year is a reminder that he's either not in decline at all because he's fully healthy.....or his decline is going to be much smaller than some may of anticipated a few years ago.
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It is worrisome that Kimbrel has these sub-optimal outings, but for what it's worth when he's in a save situation he's much much more reliable.
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I think that's an exaggeration. I highly doubt we lose 18+ games because we dont' have Kimbrel on this team.
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Porcellos first full 3 seasons in the majors he was age 21-23, must pitchers are still in AA/AAA ball at that point. I'm not saying to ignore those numbers but you have to take that into context. When you combine that with his improvement of numbers every year then he really looks like a pitcher coming into his own. That was a narrative destroyed last year with a horrible season, but this year is making it look like it was just a bad first year in Boston.