Hugh2

I understand why the trade was made, I don't believe in trading from desperation. Pomeranz was a career reliever starting and approaching a predictable slow down due to his innings. If you want to justify giving up a prospect as promising as Espinoza, then I would have wanted to get back a more reliable commodity.

Fair points. However I suspect teams know more about the guys they are trading for than we realize. As you said teams will always know more about their own guys; that's very reasonable. But teams have vast scouting departments and not only is it normal to ramp up scouting with teams you trade often with but teams will also ramp up scouting of particular players as well. They also exchange medicals as well and as we've seen with the Padres it's not smiled upon to be fraudulent about certain prospects. I think teams generally know exactly what they're buying. However I'd agree with you teams often think they are selling high, but sometimes other teams think they're buying low. Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong. I think there are other times however where you don't trade a guy because there are red flags or because you're down on them but rather you realize you have to give up tremendous value to get it back. The Sox may very well think the world of Moncada and Kopech, but that's the price you pay for Chris Sale.

I think that's debatable. There was a lot of worry about Pomeranz ability to pitch down the stretch, and he's never proven to be a starting pitcher for a full season. Surely most are happy with the Chris Sale trade, but what if we traded Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, and Diaz for Thornburg instead? I think it's reasonable that most sensible fans would see that as a major waste of resources. I found the trade for a guy who's never proven to have the durability to be a starter in the majors a major overpay by giving up a guy who's arguably the best pitching prospect we've had in a decade, and arguably the best pitching prospect in the game. Now Pom may very well come back and prove himself and I'm optimistic he can but I don't like the trade and I suspect I will never like a trade on that scale. If I'm giving up talent where the sky is the limit, I expect similar value back. I'd feel much better about packaging Espinoza up with a few other prospect for a more reliable and proven commodity E.G. The Sale trade.

It's a little bit easier to project pitching prospects because you can measure velocity, you can project body types etc etc etc. It's a lot harder to predict how a batter is going to adjust to seeing advanced breaking stuff, and control until they got there. At the same time, a younger pitcher can have a lot more go wrong during their development as well if they get injured or never reign in their command. Espinoza was special, still a lot of risk but very special regardless. We could end up really regretting that trade one day.

There was a chance Bogaerts would flop and be the next Lars Anderson. Betts could of flopped, and almost all of humanity gave up on JBJ...heck! Porcello never pitched much more than average until he was 27. Every prospect has a bust factor until they are in the big leagues, performing, putting up numbers, and officially not a bust.

That's fine, but what happens when we need it in 5-6 years from now? Whatever position you will need to fill in 2020 (just picking a year to make a point) you'd need to have that talent in your system between 2015-2018 unless you go outside the system. It takes 3-5 years to develop talent, so if we aren't getting that talent over the next couple of years we will HAVE to go outside the organization and pay FA prices. Now we will have all the money in the world by 2021, but I also suspect some people will be signed from here to there and presumably some will be big money extensions to our superstars. We could always draft a gem in the 2nd or 5th rounds, but at this point luck is just as relevant if not more than skill when drafting stars there.

If you name he who must not be named by name the death eaters might come for you.

In hindsight, Guerra has taken a HUGE step back, while Asuaje went from being a throw in to a guy who looks like he was a bright MLB future. I think within reasonable certainty you can project the high end prospects to definitely be MLB players the question is in what capacity. I could easily see Moncada being a good player but not a perennial all star, I can see Kopech never fully putting it together but being a late inning reliever with that arm.

The problem here is that we don't know about the guys who are coming in due to guys leaving. Sometimes a CFO is really great because he has a great controller, so for all we know many of the guys getting promotions could be the real brains of the operations and the Sox could benefit from hiring from within. This isn't a guess or an assumption, just a plausibility. Is plausibility a word? I know plausible is....I'm making it one if it isn't.

I'm not sure the rotation will be that much better, even with Sale. It's kind of hard to not assume they will be better and I believe they will. You added Sale, Price might not struggle out of the gate too and ERod could take a step back. However, Porcello could regress to something inbetween 2016 and 2015 and you might not get the same performance out of Wright that you did. Still it's hard to argue against the improved rotation. I do think the defense will be better, and I do think relief pitching will be better as well. Overall better and more well balanced team.

I think we should keep our expectations very low of what we will get back.

What about 13 Clay Buccholzs??? 175 tied up in the pitching staff? Which after the most dominant 6 weeks in baseball history all go on the DL. Your team as a whole is over the luxury tax and all the pitchers are on the DL forcing Trey Ball to the top of the rotation

The Red Sox will trade Buccholz for salary relief as he is redundant. If the Sox have to kick in a significant portion of his 13.5 million I suspect they will look for something they need in return like a platoon corner infielder who can hit LHP. If they get zero salary relief and/or nothing of value back they will keep him as a swing man. It's simple

People need to get over the fact that the prospect package could return more value to Chicago. Of course it does!!!! That's how trades work. You would not invest $10 in the stock market to MAYBE get $10 back in the future. There is an element of risk, so potential future value must be higher to make a trade even. Even if you knew with 100% certainty Sale would give you 20 WAR and Moncada would give 30 WAR (money aside) even then that WAR today is worth more, think of the same concept as TVM. Still, despite all that, I hated the Pom Pom trade and always will. But the Kimbrel, Sale trades are justifiable and make sense. I think I like the Thornburg trade too.

Yup, I think Swihart dropped in a lot of peoples minds much more than his actual value and talent did and I really hope he has a good break out season too. I think people are forgetting how good this lineup can be even without Ortiz, we took a step back this off season but not a big one. The pitching took a much more larger leap forward. I expect a slightly better overall team in 2017 that is better balanced.

I agree with this 100% which is why I said the Sox are negotiating from a position of weakness, because they don't have to trade him. They can walk away from the bargaining table. That was my main gripe, Clay could be useful as you said but so could getting under the luxury tax. I've moved on from Clay more than once, but it does seem a little less worrisome when the success of the Sox pitching relies on about a dozen other guys before him. He's a costly depth option that may be useful or he could be traded if a team bites.

didn't the Yankees start playing better after Arod retired, they traded away their veterans and the younger guys started to play better? Kind of reminds me of the end to our 2015 season, although I think the Yankees are still another year off from seriously contending.

Don't be surprised to see Swihart back with the Sox early in 2017.

They don't have to find a team to eat the whole contract, they could easily kick in 3-6 million. They also have other avenues for getting under the luxury tax. The Sox have gone over the limit before, they just don't like to live there like NYY or the LAD, they can easily reset next year. I still think they try to get under this year but even if they don't they are at no risk of losing a draft pick because they aren't that far over.

Possibly, an expensive one at that but you never know what you'll get out of Clay. He could give us one real good half and help this team out, but if the opportunity presents itself I think they trade him or will at least try to.

I also doubt they knew with 100% certainty they would land Chris Sale, perhaps they would have acted differently otherwise? 13.5 is peanuts now-a-days. I'm not sure what Harmony meant when he said we aren't negotiating from a position of strength. We aren't negotiating from a position of weakness either!!! We don't HAVE to trade Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox aren't going to go out of business or bankrupt if they don't trade Clay and for how much in demand pitching is now I think we could easily find another team who would take a waiver one 1 year of Clay, especially if we kicked in a few million.

This is what I was thinking, especially with the return you can get on relief pitching. Teams are even starting to draft pitchers and stick them into relief roles immediately

These is a very ignorant comment. You can have the best scouts in the world and do ok, but the CBA agreements of now and the one that took place after 2011 have seriously hurt the Sox in drafting talent. They don't have money to throw around in later rounds, and they no longer have the same avenues for bringing in international talent. Good scouting is very important, and with these retraints its as important as ever. But it is a problem, it's not an EASY thing to scout and bring in future MLB star power when you are picking in the back end of the first round and/or losing your draft picks. Those are very real concerns going forward.

Exactly, and some of these guys will be extended as well.

I don't see losing Pom Kimbrel and kelly as a big deal. Pom could arguably be the odd man out of the rotation this year if Erod takes a step forward. Kelly has never been of value to this team so if he is good in the pen going forward GREAT, and if anything we could probably trade him to restock the farm. Kimbrel could sting a little bit but this team is loading up arms. You lose guys every year, every team losses guys every year so I don't see losing those guys as a huge deal and if anything we could have something better replacing them.