Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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You kept on reiterating that Moncada should be moved to 3B. At this time I believe he was still in A ball or at least just out of A ball. No one can decipher how MLB close a guy is right out of A ball, even if he is mashing it in AA for a week. But again, you develop a player where he fits best NOT where he fits best on the team. You can re-evaluate that process later when he is ready or maybe close to ready as they did with guys like Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. That's the way it is and always will be, and at the time it was being suggested when Moncada was (I believe) still in A ball. There is no argument to be said on the issue now even in hindsight just because it happened. Mostly anyone could have predicted Moncada would eventually move off of 2nd base with 3RD being a likely destination, the question was WHEN it would happen. Teams don't have a schedule when a guy is going to move. If Moncada is the future 3B does that make Devers the future 1B??? should they switch him now? he's been killing it in A ball for about as long as Moncada did at this point so why not? No we won't do that, we will continue to let him play at 3B and if there is no opening there in 1-2 years or he isnt' used in a trade but looks like a good slugging MLB player they will switch him to 1B. That's a very likely scenario on this team, if Devers and Moncada both have a future on this team there is a strong possibility that he moves to 1B but the team isn't going to develop him there because that is not how player development works. But they aren't going to do that why he is still developing.....just like they kept Moncada at 2nd while he was still coming up through the ranks.
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It wasn't an issue about being right or wrong it was an issue about player development. You didn't understand why a guy who was far off from the majors and in A/AA ball shouldn't move positions and we were telling you what teams do and why they do it. MLB teams still do that and will continue to do so, nothing has changed. I still don't understand where the argument is here. You're not just disagreeing with us but you're disagreeing with just about every MLB teams philosophy on player development. When we gave you an explanation of why things are that why you rejected it. Also Moncada is a freak, we've known this for a while. But plenty of "freaks of nature" never hit their way out of A ball. Moncada is a freak who is performing and there is zero way of knowing a guy will perform until he is there doing it. Nobody had a crystal ball a month ago and nobody every will. It's futile to say anyone predicted a guy would turn into a guy because all things considered there are only two main permutations. A guy is a guy....or a guy can't hit at the next level.
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No I think the argument is being changed here in hindsight. What teams do is develop a guy at his natural position and move him if there is a hole to fill and the guy is ready or close to ready. What we were arguing against then was the notion that because it looked like Moncada was blocked and his position on the team would be another position that he should be moved in advanced. It's still 100% true that you don't move guys to a position based off of what the team needs might be in a year or two. That's not how development works and it never will be. Nothing which has transpired has changed that argument. They likely view Moncada as close to ready and see 3B as a viable option, and I'm sure there are other factors involved in that decision besides Pedey playing 2nd such as Shaws struggles recently. Moncada is a phenom, that still validates our argument even if it is a month or two later. It's not like teams sit down and have a schedule of the exact date a guy is ready or will switch positions. It's not as if the team has it marked May 25th 2018 Devers will move to 1B. It was a silly argument then, and it still is now.....and no one here ever doubted the ideal that he would/could eventually move off of position the argument was when it should happen and at that point in time Moncada was in Single A.....he was in A ball!!!!!!!!!
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Obviously size, strength and leverage are a big function of power but people often underestimate how much is in the bat speed, wrists and swing path. I don't Benintendi is going to be a perennial 30 HR guy but I think he'll easily hit 15-20 most seasons in his prime. He has doubles power too, and the speed to stretch some of them into triples. You don't have to be big to be a HR threat, just look at what guys like Mookie Betts and Altuve are doing this year.
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Rankings aren't worthless, but I get what you're saying. A guy might not have the sexiest prospect ranking because he doesn't have the higest potential but if Johnson becomes a really good back of the rotation starter who gives you innings then he's a very valuable MLB pitcher who was worth every penny he got and easily worth the draft slot. Someone stepping up in the 5th slot could be the difference between playing baseball in October this year on this team.
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Our top 4 prospects are still as good as anyones out there, I think Kopech is in his own tier between those guys and everyone else in the system. It's pretty baron after that, there are a few guys who have high ceilings but tons of question marks and little track record. There are also a few names that have high potential in the bullpen.
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One thing I find impressive about Devers is how age advanced he is for his level, what started off as a tough year has really started to turn around. From what I gather from many of the scouts that have seen him play is that he was getting great at bats and making loud contact a month before the numbers really started to show....he was literally just hitting the ball hard at people. Right now he looks like he's mastered the level, still I think he'll get the complimentary AA cup of coffee with 1-2 weeks left. But he started off at the same level as Benintendi and Moncada this year and he's apx 1.5-2.5 years younger than both those guys. I think he could be knocking on the door as early as late next year and might break the line up permanently sometime in 2018.
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No I agree with that, it's not that he never deserves criticism. Just because you have a guy warming up doesn't mean you shouldn't bring him in.
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There will definitely be some competition for those spots. However, Shaw has come back down to earth and is showing the concerns that many scouts had with him coming up through the minors that he can't hit lefties. Moncada appears to be ready at the plate, but his splits are lagging behind. His swing from the right side could use some more work, I think he could hit RHP now but he might initially struggle against LHP without more development. Sam Travis is a good but not stellar prospect who I thought would be in the fold for 2017 but his injury this year might have set him back. For me, to be able to fully commit to a rookie you'd like to see a strong track record in the minors and/or some success at the MLB level. Not only has he missed most of the year this year but he likely would have had some time up with the big club now if he didn't get hurt. If Sam Travis never tore his ACL he'd likely be getting called up now if he had already not. If he was still having a good year down in Pawtucket and showed promise the rest of this year I'd say he'd be a very strong candidate for 1B next year but now....I'm not so sure.
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Listen, I'm not a John Farrell fan and would not take issue if the team wanted to part ways with him and install a new manager but some the criticism towards him is unfounded. Take last night for example, during the last Price start he screwed up by not putting any faith in his starter and taking him out of the 8th when he was jaming along. Last night, he was too slow to take him out after dominating for 7 innings. Also, he made the wrong move by bringing in Abad. But you traded for the lefty reliever to get lefties out so if Farrell left Barnes in and Barnes got hit by the lefty the criticism would still be he's mismanaging the pen because he didn't bring in the lefty specialist to face the lefty. Sometimes, s*** just happens.
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/list-9-prospects-second-half-turnarounds/#vY45RQdPAUxWw4yI.97 Nice little read on Rafael Devers who is the first talked about prospect on this list. I know I've heard it elsewhere too that he's made a lot of improvement on his defense too.
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Well, I meant as a floor I don't think he's going to worse than Brentz. He easily has the tool set to be better, it sounded like with a little more familiarity with the monster he should improve. I don't know how he's looked the last couple games in Portland. I want to go back and see when they scouted him.
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No, I meant when I said when I said many fans. I feel many many of us, even the best of us who know better at time fall into that trap.
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I meant that more from the progression being linear from player to player. Two players can have identical stat lines that will likely translate differently to higher levels. E.G. Players A & B can both have stat lines of .300/.380/.500 but player A might have average bat speed, he's able to feast on pitchers who don't throw as hard, can' t find the strike zone, or tip their pitches to close the gap to player B who has a much better chance of replicating that stat line at the next level. What I meant was, fans just look at the box scores and say "ohhh if he can do that at the MLB level he's a superstar" but its' not that simple, scouting matters.
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Good points, most fans don't see the game this way but there is a big difference between hitting AA and hitting MLB and the mistake many make is they think the progression should be linear from player to player. It is not.
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http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/08/transaction-analysis-breaking-down_2.html Sounds like he should be just as good as Brentz out there, it seems like he needs more familiarity with the monster. Lets just hope he's not overmatched at the plate.
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Good point, but hey I didn't say it was a perfect apples to apples comparison. No doubt he's being rushed, some guys make the adjustment quick others do not. Lets hope the move doesn't backfire on the sox.
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From what I've heard he's been taking reps at 3B for at least a week now.
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One has to wonder if they were able to land Carlos Beltran if they'd be making this move. It seems reasonably unlikely given that they were in on him and the trade deadline passed yesterday. One has to ponder if they aren't 100% sure he's ready, but then again if they didn't think he could be ready and could help the team now I doubt they promote him. To be fair, I don't think there is such thing as being 100% certain a guy is ready so if you have the chance to bring in a proven vet who you know can contribute that would seem to be a more viable option, hence....the push for Beltran. Andrews push reminds me of Ellsburys run through the system in 07, lets hope the results are similar. Worst case scenario is he struggles and the team is no better off than they already were. If he performs not only will it help but his value will increase as well, and playing well will increase his value much more than struggling would decrease it. I'm not 100% convinced he's not on the trade talk table in the off season if the Sox decide to make a run at Chris Sale.
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Other sources saying they are pushing harder than anyone else. 70 minutes until the trade deadline, teams are posturing, call it 50/50 someone trades for Sale at this point.
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I can see the Sox offering EROD/Benintendi/Kopech for Sale, with CWS saying we'll give you Quintana for that package but if you want Sale you have to throw in Devers. I wouldn't disagree that theres a good chance he stays put, but I'm not unconvinced that they are just posturing by saying they will stay put.
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If we give up Benintendi I like trying to develop Swihart in LF. I'd give up EROD/Benintenid/Kopech/Devers. It's a heavy package.....but we've seen what the market for pitching is.
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Think of it this way, the average fan let alone Sox fan ever hears of other teams failed prospects. Can anyone in here name 5 prospects in other teams organizations let alone one??? We don't see other teams Henry Owens, we don't see other teams Allen Websters, we don't see their Lars Andersons.....we only know who they are when they turn into JBJ's and Mookie Betts. If anything, other teams prospects fail more often than our own.
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A year ago I'd easily agree with you but if anything that is way too light the way the market has been going. Relievers are netting multiple top 100 prospects.
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I'd start with Benintendi, EROD, Kopech for Sale. Will probably have to throw in more but that package is a pretty solid starting point and reportedly the CWS really really like Benintendi a lot.

