Hugh2

Atlanta has enough talent in their rotation to not have to worry about losing Wright, but they are going to lose Teheran next year and Gausman the following year. Wright is a guy who they should hope to slide in and take a rotation spot which is what you want as a first-place team. I just don't see Atlanta taking that deal seriously. Dalbec was never a top 100 prospect and his ceiling strikes me as a Mark Reynolds type of guy if he pans out. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game and he could have a very pedestrian year (despite a decent showing in 2020 sss) and struggle before adjusting to MLB pitching. Atlanta, being a 1st place team might not want to part with a pitcher they think is on the cusp of entering their rotation for a guy who plays a position they don't really need an upgrade at. Riley is probably closer to producing at the MLB level than Dalbec is and he was regarded higher....and I certainly don't see Atlanta moving Dalbec to 1B and kicking Freeman out. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush, and that trade is asking for a bird in hand for a bird in the bush for a team that is in compete now mode.

The only thing that would have lost Mookie Money this year would be the Covid Market. Still, there's just no way to tell how a big market team might have responded. A team like TB needs to cut back in a covid world where NY or LA can just blink. Unfortunately, there is not a marquee FA to give us a template to go on. If there was, and the market is depressed, then you could argue a guy would take a one year deal and jump back in the waters next year. The one thing Mookie would have going for him is he would clearly be the best FA in the market (by a lot) and his value would be sky high right now. I suspect if he opted to sign a contract this offseason and Covid truly did drive the price down he still gets over 300 million.

I share your enthusiasm for Song, but Wright is closer to impacting a big league club and may have a higher ceiling as well. Doesn't matter, I don't Song even gets you close to Wright.

Given the state of our rotation, Happ would be a welcomed addition. Still, he's yet another year older and a guy who is probably not going to give you more than 175 innings next year. If the Sox are going to compete next year they need to strengthen the top of the rotation. The reality is, there just isn't much of a market for pitching. So a guy like Happ strengthens the middle of your rotation, you improve the bullpen and hope for a good year from E-rod and a mid-year return from Sale. If all that happens and a WS is a possibility you can always dive into the trade market next summer and improve the top of the rotation (given an ace is available).

I think Alex Verdugo is going to be a stud, not as good as Mookie, but 300 million dollars + cheaper for 5 years. I firmly believe unless the Sox gave Mookie similar money (they weren't going to) he was going to leave Boston. You can't fall in love with these guys and it would be bad business to invest close to 1/2 a billion dollars when the offense is not your problem. The trade will look even better if Downs turns into your everyday 2nd baseman. Not sure he's ready yet so maybe they can get a Cesar Hernandez on a 1-year deal? In hindsight, I wonder what the market for Mookie Betts would have looked like this year if stayed with Boston? Team budgets are tight and people are afraid of making long-term commitments but at the same time, he would be the clear-cut top FA in the market.

He does, but we have more time with him than I suggested. His opt out is after the 2022 season.

One thing about these Sox over the past couple decades is they've had a nack for falling apart and putting themselves back together. 2013 is probably the best example of this. They've never been afraid to change strategies that have had optimal and sub-optimal outcomes. For example, the Sox of 2013 would never sign David Price, they just wouldn't do it, it was never going to be part of their organizational philosophy. Ben Charrington did a great job at rebuilding the system, but the Sox were able to switch direction and bring in a guy like Dombroski had the balls to blow it all up and build a championship team. G.M.'s do that all the time, win 100 games and sit home in October so 2018 is just that more special. I'm not saying it's going to be a good year this year, I think best case scenario is with a clean bill of health this team hits like crazy and trades for another ACE at the deadline. Unlikely, but that's how we get to October. I'm also not claiming to know the future but I will say this. I think the Sox are willing to go over the Luxury tax, they just wanted to reset, I suspect a rebuild is coming after this year via trades and FA. And honestly, if guys don't opt out like JDM and Bogarets (unlikely) they only need to focus on the pitching side of things. I'm not saying trading Mookie was a great decision, but I think we have to see what they do with it.

I remember back in the day I used to comment here all day long. Life has swept up in its many wonders of homeownership, parenthood, and running a business. I apologize if this has already been brought up but the F.A. classes of 2021/2022 look pretty stacked. I believe that is relevant given that they will get under the luxury tax threshold this year.

I don't have the patience to read through 11 pages so I apologize if I'm reiterating other voices. There's a case to trade and retain any good player depending on what the price is. The extension Bogaerts signed made it clear he's the type of guy you extend, but if Betts wants top dollar I think you have to at least entertain the thought of trading him. He could completely restock the system. This team could easily be as good as they were in 2018 next year, however, so perhaps you see how good you play this year and if you're in a position where the Yankees have a strong command of 1st place perhaps you trade him at the deadline.

It's kind of crazy to think a hometown discount at this point might be 10/300. But with the uncertainty free agency has provided the last few years I wonder if Mookie would bite if the front office came to him with that deal.

One of these guys are definitely trade bait. I agree with Jacksonians take that Chavis has the higher floor and Dalbec has the higher ceiling, but I don't think there ceilings are that far apart. If Chavis hits enough to play in the majors he has enough power to be a 30 HR guy too. This season has all the makings of trading away a couple top prospects for a late inning reliever come July.

I'm surprised no one is talking about Trey Ball.....the outfielder.

I always think the most recent scouting report is the most relevant. Scouts often try to project these guys and it's never 100%. You can look at a guy, look at his size, his body type and movements and you can see that he may not only not be a great athlete but he could have the body type that can easily put on weight. That's why it's easy to look at some guys and say "he's going to move to 3b" "he's going to move to 1b" etc etc. While I generally trust that consensus, at the end of the day, no one truly knows how these kids will develop. Sometimes guys work very hard to change their body and improve their athleticism and they just stick and improve where they are.

I highly doubt Shawaryn ever cracks the Sox rotation aside from a spot start. Sox don't really have any starters in the system. The two best bets are Mata, Groome and Houck. One of those guys might profile as a reliever (Houck) one might be more of a BOTRS (MATA) and the guy with the highest upside is starting to show questions about his ability to stay healthy. The Sox legacy of not developing starters may very well continue into the foreseeable future. And that's ok, you can still have a kick ass farm system without developing starters, and the Sox have shown you can trade away guys to build your roster where you are weak and built a 100+ win team.

Ok, so if all stats alone are bad stats, then I don't disagree with you at all. I guess I'm more of a the glass is half full type of guy with WAR.

Ockimey is also a first base only profile. Funny, if he could play a plus SS, C, or CF, he'd probably be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball with his bat. It's good, but you almost need to be great if you're a first base only profile.

Wasn't*

I don't think anyone has ever said WAR was flawed, the point is there isn't a better singular stat.

So.......you can't name a stat at better evaluating a player?

WAR is Obviously a hot topic that always drums up a good conversation with conflicting views. Personally, I've always liked to use rWar for position players and Fwar for pitchers.

We've seen a few similar situations over the last few years of young players struggling at the onset of their MLB careers, or during their first full seasons. The problem is, that sometimes young guys struggle. They are in a spot where they have little left to learn in the minors and the only way they're ever going to learn and adjust to hitting mlb pitching is to go through the trails and tribulations of a full season. Some times they will struggle for a 1/2 a year or a full year and come back strong and sometimes they will sink and never learn to swim (e.g. will middlebrooks).

I'm optimistic on both of them, power is a good tool to have. If anything else develops with it it's easy to carve out a MLB career. But I just can't get over Dalbecs K rate. You have to make contact for your power to be worth anything and if he's K'ng more than 33% of the time in the lower minors. They're also the same age at the same level but Chavis has missed a bunch of time the last two seasons. He could easily be in the majors today or in Pawtucket knocking on the door if he didn't get suspended. Again, two good assets to have, Sox will be lucky and benefit greatly if one of them pans out. Chavis has a little bit of swing and miss in his game too, and I'm not sure he has the height to play fist base, which I'm sure is not uber important.

Name one stat better at evaluating a player.

Can he play 2nd???

His current line in Pawtucket is .172/.294/.241. I don't think he's an option right now. Tzu-Wei Lin is the better option at this point, and I think he can give you plus defense at multiple positions.