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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    I don't think guys like Groome and Ball have a ton of value right after they're drafted. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. If those guys were good enough to get an elite return early in their careers they would have been #1 picks, guys like Harper. I'd also rather trade 3 lesser prospects for 1 higher ceiling guy any day.
  2. Hugh2
    Never underestimate how horrible the bottom of other teams' 40 man rosters are. I wouldn't lose any sleep if we lost Franchy for example, but he'd get scooped up somewhere. I still think he has a better chance at a productive MLB career than Ockimey does. But, lets be honest, if enough guys went down in enough time to where the Sox actually had to call a guy like Ockimey up, they've conceivably moved guys from the 40 man to the DL, so there is no issue. But, I still wouldn't want Ockimey replacing anyone on this 40 man now.
  3. Hugh2
    If I was a team, and I genuinely saw two guys equal and needed a tie-breaker, I'm drafting the player who I think I can sign for less money.
  4. Hugh2
    That's the thing, Ockimey is not on the 40 man roster. And if I'm losing a player to make room for someone, it's going to someone like Duran later this year. I'd honestly rather let it ride with Dalbec and let him give him some more time because I'd want to platoon him at 1B. There's going to be a 40 man crunch at some point, some of this stuff works itself out with injuries but I suspect some deadline moves will be made as well.
  5. Hugh2
    The impression I've been getting from what I've read is just that. It's not that Leiter or Rocker have done anything to hurt their prospect status but rather other guys have pushed themselves up into that top tier. That's good for the Sox picking #4.
  6. Hugh2
    Call it a difference of opinion but I don't think name means a thing at the top of the draft. Maybe in later rounds. You see that stuff happen in the later rounds, where a team drafts a scouts son, or something like that. That certainly happens, but not at the top. In terms of all else being equal, for me if all else was equal I'd go with Rocker because of the physique. His body just screams starting pitcher while Leiters makes you wonder if he can pitch 32 games a year for the long haul.
  7. Hugh2
    Personally, I think there's very little chance that two fall that far, but admittedly I know nothing. I read what guys say who talk to scouts who for all we know has an opinion not in line with the head decision-maker come draft day. These boards change every week too. Still, I don't think any team would be unhappy with a top catching prospect in their organization, even if it was another top catching prospect.
  8. Hugh2
    If we decide to trade any star players at the deadline this year, can we please do it to a contender who doesn't have money? that way we have a chance to bring them back in FA.
  9. Hugh2
    Maybe at one point, at this point there's been so many eyes on these guys at the top of the draft his name means nothing. He's where he is because he has real talent.
  10. Hugh2
    Keep in mind cathers take longer to develop, and Ford is a high school catcher. By the time Ford is MLB ready Rutschmann could be close to a FA, he also could get injured, Ford is also an elite athlete who scouts say could play other positions. With a very strong arm and a 1.8 pop time I don't think the O's would let Rutschmann stop them from taking Ford. If, they're interested in Ford, I'm assuming Law isn't just throwing darts at a board. It could very well be that the O's have guys who they would take there but have a deal in place for a guy like Ford if the draft doesn't develop how they'd like.
  11. Hugh2
    This is the highest anyone has House, one has to wonder why Law put him there. Good chance he's being scouted by teams and there's some talk of him cutting a deal there.
  12. Hugh2
    7 At bats is a pretty small sample size this year. If you look at his career Milb spits the best he's ever done VS. LHP was a .786 OPS back in 2017 in Salem. Also, his defense is 1B only, and he's not really even that great at 1B. I think Ockimey is more of an emergency depth option at this point. If the Sox were looking at needing Ockimey to stay up in the bigs, they'd likely make a move and sign someone else. I also think Casas would pass Ockimey on the depth chart very soon, some time this year.
  13. Hugh2
    Callis has. 1.Marcello Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS 2. Jack Leiter, RHP Vanderbilt 3. Jordan Lawlar, SS Jesuit Prep HS 4. Henry Davis, C, Lousville 5. Brady House, SS, Windor-Barrow HS 6. Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt 7. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS 8. Jacson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS 9. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 10. Sal Fredrick, OF, Boston College. There's been some talk of teams in the top 10 cutting deals and saving money to spread around in the later rounds. Someone above the Sox is bound to do that so it's highly probable that not only one of the top college pitchers from Vanderbilt, but also the top college bat or one of the top 2 HS SS will fall to us at #4. If the Sox cut a deal, I think they go college bat, I'm not sure if Davis would take slot or slightly under but they could like Fredrick at #4. I'd be happy with anyone from the Davis/Lawlar/Mayer/Rocker/Leiter/House list as that seems to be the top tier on most boards.
  14. Hugh2
    Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them. 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA Interesting take by Law having Rocker above Leiter. It has felt like Leiter is above Rocker but people have also been saying that's not a 100% consenus. Callis at MLBPipline has us taking the college catcher, Davis at #4.
  15. Hugh2
    It all comes down to who the Sox like. I think there's a decent chance they get a Leiter/Rocker, but they could easily like a guy like House, or maybe even Davis if they really believe in the bat. If they think Davis would be a better MLB hitter one day than those guys would be a pitcher......then you'd draft the hitter.
  16. Hugh2
    I mean, if all else was equal maybe, but I'd suspect most of the time, particularly at the top of the draft you have player A ranked over player B. The draft is such a crapshoot, and unlike other sports, you're not getting everday value out of these guys for 4-6 years. The team doesn't draft on need, nor do most. I think when you get to the bottom of the draft, and with undrafted free agents you see teams filling in rosters for their affiliates, otherwise, you can always trade hitting for pitching.
  17. Hugh2
    But even in a normal year I think the MLb is a little tougher to project.
  18. Hugh2
    This year I think is harder to project than other years. There doesn't seem to be that one stand out guy at the top, there are 5-7 guys who conceivably could go #1, also Covid really screwed things up for players and scouting departments, but I think that may play out more in the back of the first round which may end up being ever harder to project.
  19. Hugh2
    I'm fairly certain MLB drafts are 100% BPA, with that said some teams might be more comfortable with College Bats over HS bats etc etc.
  20. Hugh2
    Maybe not, a lot of people have the Rangers and Pirates nabbing the top HS short stops at the top, if that happens one of Leiter and Rocker would fall to the Sox. We could see guys cut a deal at the top too, so someone like House could go off the board too. I think there's a very good chance at least one of them is still there.
  21. Hugh2
    That's a pretty good guess as they're two of the best prospects in this entire draft, it would be hard to pass on them there. But, I do think the Sox are going to take BPA, and that could easily be Lawler or Mayer if they fall there, and maybe even Brady and house too.
  22. Hugh2
    Oh I'm sorry, what I meant to say was you have to go back 5-10 years until you can even start looking. If I want to see how good the "top 5" picks are, I'll start in 2016 and start working my way backwards.
  23. Hugh2
    You mean that we can't start looking at the hit rate for young draftees unless we go back at least 5 years? I'd agree, I think that's what you kind of have to do because even top prospects who excel can easily spend 2-3 years in the minors, and sometimes even all-star caliber players need a year or two in the majors to adjust.
  24. Hugh2
    Remember the return for Mookie = Verdugo + Jeter Downs. You could add in how the spend the cash Mookie is getting now, but that will be almost impossible to quantify over the next several years.
  25. Hugh2
    Someone over on the Soxprospects forum went back and looked at top 5 picks for a couple of decades and found only two players who did reach the MLB level. This high in the draft, busts are unlikely (if you judge boom/bust by a player being a big leaguer). Personally, I'd prefer someone who is a little bit more than that picking so high.
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