Hugh2

A Devers promotion is imminent, I've been saying for a month they are going to promote him right after the all star break.

I get what you're saying, and I agree that finishing last is never good and a high draft pick is a consolation price at best. Again, I get what you're saying.....but it took the Yankees over 20 years to hit on the first round. But to be fair, they've been worse than average at drafting over the past couple decades. The Sox have had much better success picking in the 20-30 range.

I'd be ok with Beltre coming here. He's under contract for another year as well. He might be the perfect mentor for a guy like Rafael Devers and Beltre has plenty bat to DH if we don't want him playing the field every day at 39.

Why not? We can just stick Lin at SS once we pick up a 3B or promote Devers?

Not it's not, but getting a player who is more than 2X likely to be a good player and 3X more likely to be an elite player is a nice consolation prize. The drop off from the first round to the rest of the draft is even more staggering. If you get a good everyday player in the first round, and two guys who contribute from the bench and in the pen later in the draft you had a decent draft.

I think a few things worth mentioning is as slim as a 30-40% hit rate seems, the drop off is even more staggering once you get past the first round. There are a ton of busts in the top of the draft and the vast majority of MLB talent is at the top of the draft are both true statements.

Thanks MVP!

I agree, I do think his stock has risen from a guy who looked to have no MLB future to a guy who could be useful in the utility role. I wonder if he can play the OF? He's got speed and I know his defense on the left side is exceptional. Guys like that a still very important.

Yes he's put on some weight, so he has that going in his favor. We will have to wait and see, but he's doing a fine job right now.

Yes but JBJ hit well in the minors and scouts loved his tools at the plate. You can't say the same thing about Lin and Marrero.

I get what you're saying but it's never a good idea to bet on the exception and not the norm. There will always be anecdotal evidence (Travis Shaw) to justify why guys like Tzu-Wei Lin will play exceptionally well at the MLB level. But more often than not guys regress to what they are. Also, it's important to not that Shaw could always hit, he had a .803 OPS in the minors and currently his MLB OPS is .809. The question with Shaw was if he had the bat speed to carry his hitting tools to the next level, and it looks like he does. Sometimes guys have other qualities that we just can't quantify, who knows what it is with Shaw....maybe he's just really smart and able to overcome that deficiency. Wei Lin is currently sporting a .877 OPS in 46 PA's after 6 seasons in the minors with an OPS of .638. It's extremely, extremely likely his MLB line going forward at some point is going to represent the .638 if not worse. Things change, this isn't set in stone, but he's not going to BABIP .448 for the rest of the season. I'm a big fan of riding what you got, catching lightning in a bottle, going with the trend, or however else you want to put it and Lin plays the position fine. But at times this teams lack of offense has really shown, and if there's one place we can use an upgrade.....it's at 3B. Perhaps Lin stays hot long enough for a guy like Devers in a month or two, but I'd be very uncomfortable if Lin is our 3B going into the post season. If I'm wrong, and he's sporting a .877 OPS come October I'd gladly eat some crow. You guys can shove a big old plate of crow done my throat. It's exciting to see guys defy the odds but hedging your bets at 3B could pay dividends when it comes to trying to win a WS this year.

HA! now that was funny

Another young guy to keep an eye on is Bryan Mata, I'm also really liking this young kid Scherff we just drafted too. Perhaps one of these young guns can turn recent trends of developing pitchers around in this system.

So if I want to get a boner over a cliff I will.

Everything is out of our control. Whether they win or lose, make the playoffs, who they bring in for the 8th inning, whether or not they sign a pitcher etc etc etc. We are just a very diversified bunch in terms of what we want to complain about and that is basically the foundation of every fan forum.

Exactly, when you look at this team, and take the talent that is either homegrown (Mookie Betts, JBJ) or traded for (Chris Sale). You can see they were acquired under old rules. All the rules that teams like the Sox were better at working than everyone else have been changed. You can't throw money around in the draft anymore (mookie Betts) you don't get multiple picks in the first round anymore (Matt Barnes, JBJ) (kopech = Sale) you can't just burn money in the international market either (Moncada = Kopech) Lin got 2 million. I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm not saying it's hopeless, but as a fan who is fascinated with the business side, and the development of talent etc etc etc I'm curious as to how things will transpire in the future. Just saying "prospects are just prospects and the problem will fix itself" in my eyes is sticking your head in the sand. That doesn't take away any problems. As a Sox fan who doesn't plan on dying the next three years I care about the future. I understand that everyone cheers in their own way, and different things spark our interest so to each their own. But please, this isn't being pessimistic, weren't negative people because we care about a subject more than other people.

Right, the glass is half full or half empty. Then there are those of us who realize the glass is going to be empty eventually and there's nothing in the fridge to fill it back up with.

If I had to choose between and all .800+ ops lineup with average to subpar defense and an all .600 OPS lineup with better to superior defense I'd take the .800 OPS lineup every single time. All things considered, the .800 OPS team would be in contention and the .600 team would struggle to win games. To be fair, I do think there are some who undervalue defense, especially at certain positions, but I think there are those of us who overvalue it as well. Nothing wrong with preferring something as a fan, some people like the long ball, some love watching a pitcher execute his game, and some love watching the diving play but the reality is if this team wants to upgrade the lineup it's going to be awfully hard going into the playoffs with two black holes in the lineup.

No, I was asking about the "fens" but I figure now you meant Fenway

who?

I think Devers is in line for a promotion any day now. If he is mashing it by July 30th and there's no good values out there for DD I think he will give the kid a chance, otherwise, I think they will look for an upgrade at 3B.

Yes but sometimes that pessimism is 100% justified. For example, Phillies fans have every reason to feel pessimistic about their chances of making the post season this year.

I get the window argument, and I'm even conversing about it on another thread now, and while it does concern me there is the reality that no one knows how the future will transpire. Perhaps the Sox draft the next Mike Trout with their 30th pick in the draft next year. Maybe they go after Otani and he becomes the next Kershaw. What I find concerning is when you look at the way this entire team is constructing you can pinpoint almost every player to a system that no longer exists (free agents aside). But again, everyone has to play by these rules and we don't have a crystal ball. I do worry about the future, I'am a bit pessimistic but I think I'd like to consider it more of a curiosity as to what the Sox will do to keep pumping talent in the roster. I believe I still reserve the right to enjoy the team now as well.

yes, and I'd argue it's after the 2019 season.

In the top 10? we're more like one for two....that's pretty good, see my last post.