Hugh2

That's what DD does, he signs guys quick even if he has to overpay for it. Not saying it's an overpay, but of all the big signings that can happen early probably a DD signing is the least indicative of what a market is going to be.

I like to plug trades into BTV after they happen. Often times the value is spot on, or close.....other times.....not so much.

Yes, on one year deals not guys signed for 1/2 a decade.

And....why would we do it?

I love using BTV, but I can't argue against this. It's an imperfect tool

BTV Accepts MARTE for Masataka Yoshida, Jordan Hicks, Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, and Juan Valera. Then we'd be sitting $40 million under the first cap. Who do we sign for that money? Bo bichette and ALex Bregman? maybe Bregman and Alonso?

Why would Arizona do that?

Everyone is interested in everyone according to everyone this time of year. It's the same thing in other media markets......except maybe the A's. There headlines probably read "According to sources A's are not intersted in trading for Ketel Marte"

If the Diamondbacks want a top infield prospect for Marte perhaps a 3 team trade could be in the works. Mariners get Jarren Duran, Hayden Mullins & Tyler Uberstein Diamondbacks get: Colt Emerson, Kutter Crawford & Teddy McGraw Red Sox get: Ketel Marte BTV grades this as a small overpay by Boston but returns slightly more value to both Seattle and Arizona. The Mariners get the outfielder they want plus two arms for their bullpen in Uberstein and Mullins. Diamonbacks get a top prospect in Colt Emmerson, a young pitcher with team control and another prospect. Red Sox get Ketel Marte

There are times where I wouldn take the proven talent as well. When we are trading from a position of strength for a position of weakness. Trading from a position of weakness doesn't fit the bill. Has anyone ever considered that Arizona would also accept a lesser package? just because they're asking for player XYZ doens't mean they're going to settle on player XYZ. That's like walking into a car dealership and instantenously agreeing to pay MSRP. Sure, that car might be a mercedes benz, but it's still MSRP. man.....I'm just hemorrhaging amazing analogies

I took that analogy straight from the cosmos, I thought it was amazing

Sub .800?

Yes and none of us have a crystal ball, we don't definitively know who is going to bust and exactly what year the Martes of the world will hit a wall. But we do know the general directions they move in. Youth gets better, and older guys get older and decline. It's a lot like predicting the weather. They have no ideal what is going to happen two weeks from now but we know with absolute certainty that it's going to be cold in the winter and warm in the summer.

I mean we can play this game all day, I probably could have worded that more carefully, there's a difference between a prospect in A ball, vs. AA ball, vs AAA vs. a little MLB experience and on the cusp of a career. ALso a difference between a guy with good numbers vs. a top 100 guy vs a top 25 vs a top 10. But If you wanted to weight a team that had 100 Mayer vs. 100 Marte trades and built solely on those players and see how that team/organization is doing 4-5 years down the road. I'll take the Mayer team every single time.

We don't need him to play SS, we already have Story and Mayer who can play SS

I think you guys spelled SKenes wrong.

For the reasons I'd be weary of trading for Marte, I'm also weary of re-signing Bregman. With very very few caveats, every player who plays the game completley falls off a cliff and becomes a negative WAR player at some point between 30-35. We constantly fall into the same trap of assuming a guy, no matter how good is going to continue to do what he's done the last few years over the next few years. When time and time and time again history proves us wrong. The problem is, we remember the guys who play until 40 like David Ortiz, and we never remember the names of the Matt Kemps of the world. I haven't even thought about Matt Kemp in over a decade but I remember a period of time when we just HAD to trade the farm for him because of how good he was. Marte could age well, or not. Betting on youth like Mayer over Marte isn't going to net positive results all the time but the vast majority of the time they do. Even if Mayer never amasses the career war that Marte does betting on the Mayers of the world 23-38 over the 33-38 Martes more often than not nets positive results. Teams will make good moves and bad moves, no one can predict the future, but good teams are the aggregate of many good sound decisions. And again, I don't think it's bad trade, it just does not match what this team needs right now and where they are at. Thats the type of move you make when your window is closing and you're getting desperate. Sox should not be trading from a place of desperation ESPECIALLY considering they're 100% unwilling to spend the money on guys.

I'd rather do Marte for 17 million a year than Bo for 30 million a year too, but I'd rather have BO/Mayer at 30 than Marte/NA at 17. Id' also be paying for Mayers 23-28 years vs. Martes 33-38 I'd rather have Mayers ages 23-38 and BO at 28-30 million vs. Martes ages 33-38 + hole yet to be filled at 17 million. So I'm not really even sure I'd do it straight up, if the Sox were at an end to a competitive window I'd do it in a heartbeat. But there has to be a better match up out there. If anything, if they want high end infield prospects I'd trade DUran for that and flip them for Marte before I'd ever trade Mayer away. Remember in the Marte route, you still have another hole to fill, so it's not really a 30-17 comparision.

correction; Martes AAV will be calulated at 17.25 vs. the Luxury tax. Player options are calculated into AAV as well.

It’s like replacing Bregman with Marte but getting rid of Mayer…so now you have another hole. If we didn’t have a glut of outfielders and less question marks in the infield I’d be for it. But we arguably have a question mark at every single infield position. There’s other fish in the sea, it makes astronomically more sense to trade from your outfielder depth for an infielder. also, if you’re willing to take on 18.4 million in salary and lose Mayer. Why not take out 8-10 million more and keep Mayer and just sign Bichett? Now your infield is pretty close to set between Story/Mayer/Bichette.

I like Marte a lot, but he's 32 and he's at that age where a player can fall off a cliff any year. I don't think trading one of your top prospects who has a chance to be your cornerstone SS for a decade for an aging vet getting paid is good business. Yes, he's one of the best 2nd in baseball but for how much longer? I think we have to start thinking about what players WILL DO, and not so much what they HAVE DONE. Because the wall is undefeated and all these guys are heading for it.

I very much disagree. Even if Marte is better than Mayer going forward, he costs money and you are still down the same exact number of infielders. What if Story regresses? who is your 3B? who is your 1B? we have just as many holes but $22 million dollars more on the payroll for a team we know is operating on a budget. It really makes very little sense.

I see one big more coming, whether it's Marte trade (or something else) or they're signing Bichette or Alonso but they're going to add a high end bat. Maybe they resign Bregman, if they resign Bregman get ready for a long offseason....I think he's going to go into 2026 like he did last year.

Zero reason why we should do that. Then we just have to go out and spend $ on an infielder anyways, So we'd be trading Mayer to increase payroll....that is never going to happen. Unless the Diamonbacks want some of our pitchers or our outfielders there is no match here.

People think the past repeats itself, when it generally just rhymes. But more specifically they think the immediate past repeats itself. So therefore the Red Sox will never spend again. That will be true every year until it isn't. Truth be told, Sox spend....people just don't like how they spend.