Hugh2

I don’t think people realize how good Mondesi and Duvall can be if healthy. Or maybe it’s just that they don’t have much confidence in this team staying healthy. I have more confidence in Duvall staying healthy than Mondesi

It could be way worse, in reality, it's not bad....but given how last year went to start this year off in such away doesn't exactly strike confidence in anyone. Still, I'll remain optimistic, I'm looking forward to games.

Right now those two are ahead of Mata on the depth chart, and baring a rash of injuries a good performance by at least one of them can keep Mata down on the farm most of the season to continue developing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's surpassed those guys by mid season.

I know people say not to look into ST stats, but especially now, look who is playing. This is what I love about spring training, there’s always a few guys who’s name you read and you have to ask yourself “who the heck is that?”.

It's not like Paxton wasn't rehabbing and ramping back up all last season. He didn't suffer a major setback but rather a minor injury at the end of the season. With a normal offseason, I'd expect him to be right here. It's a good sign.

First of all, 1.5 is still 1/2 the time frame as 3 years. And seeing how some are being so specific here it's actually more like 3.33 years. Also, when you miss 1.5 years from Tommy John, you're not not throwing during that time. And you're in a professional system, with the care, attentiveness of pro mlb trainers and doctors etc. You are on throwing programs with pitching coaches, and at some point facing live batters. It's a completely different experience from being away from a sport for that time frame. Then more than DOUBLE that time frame. A case-by-case basis it may be. But has anyone ever taken 3 years off from the sport and made the jump from A ball to the majors. Ever? even just once?

My point is the difference between 4 years and 3 1/3 years is non-existent to insignificant at best. That's why this whole conversation is stupid. It doesn't matter. If he lost his stuff after 4 years, he's already lost it after 3. Could it return? yes but not in one season.

Just like prospect rankings all things can vary. This is #1 on my list

I dunno, this has got to be top 3 of all time.

BA ranking as #10 says something. When Law had us low the naysayers were out in full force, that ranking was to be taken seriously but now that someone else says we are a top 10 system they have nothing to say.

I would be happy with at least 5 of the 7 making it to the season healthy.

My god this is the dumbest f***ing argument ever. Song hasn't been pitched since 2019, people see it's the 2023 season coming up. They do simple math and get to 4, but when you really think about it by the time he pitches this year it will have been closer to 3 1/3 - 3 1/2 a year. Whoopdy f***ing do, what point does anyone think they are making here? This does absolutely 100% ZERO to do with the fact that it's been a very long time since he's pitched competitively. Does anyone actually think there's a HUGE drop-off in velocity and stuff going from 3.33 years to 4 years? That's a long time to not pitch AND make a jump from low A to the majors and STICK. Even if Song turns into the next Scherzer it will have been the right call to not have protected someone who fits his profile. Guys like him don't get picked, it was called unprecedented and the only jackal the say otherwise (Peter Abraham) is a baffoon who doesn't know what he's talking about. EVEN HE WALKED back his own comments and said he overreacted. He probably gets returned or the Sox gets an asset for him. There's are a billion reasons to call the Sox FO incompetent, but we'd be better off blaming the rain on them at this point. Seriously, I nominate the conversation in this thread over the last week for the dumbest convo in Talksox history award. PLEASE can we get the regular season and just have more interesting things to talk about. Talk about straws...damn.

DD absolutely did not expect this, because now he has to carry him on the 26 man. It's weird, people are looking at this like DD is a genius who picked Blooms pockets. Which is an easy narrative to buy into around these parts given their track records here, but I think the opposite is true. DD didn't want this to happen, he wanted to carry Song on the exemption list this year.

this sounds very plausible.

If they trade for his rule 5 rights they would no longer have to carry him on their 26-man roster. Discussions? I doubt they have started between teams but I'm sure Philly is eager to take a look at him, and perhaps has an ideal of what it would take for Boston to trade him. Song was a DD pick, and we know how DD is about his guys, when he wants a guy he goes out and gets him. That's the strength he has that built a championship here in Boston. I think it could also be used against him, if he really wants Song but can't afford to carry him on the 26th man, Sox may be able to get back equal value.

I suspect competent baseball ops wouldn't think like this BUT. One downside of all this Song talk is....does this create the illusion that under similar circumstances in the future Song needs to be protected. When in reality, a guy who fits his profile probably doesn't get selected. So you waste a spot year after year and continue to lose guys who have a much higher probability of having an impact on your roster like WARD. This is a crude analogy, but we are effectively asking if we need to change our daily lives because a meteor hit our neighboring town. Out of fear of death, meanwhile, we continue to sit at our computers, drink, smoke, and down cheeseburgers all day. God damn, I really want a cheeseburger right now.

If anyone wants an expert analysis of the Song situation check out the latest Soxprospects.com podcast. They jump right into it at the 2:55 mark https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/26051379

Well Whitlock is by far the greatest rule 5 pick in recent years that I can remember. Would be nice to see a list of some of the most valuable picks the past 10-15-20 years.

Also, I think there’s a recency bias in Boston after plucking Whitlock. Whitlocks are rare, you don’t get them every year. It’s rather rare to get burned in the rule 5, but it does happen.

The thing about this whole Song situation is this. He wasn’t the first pick, when you think about how the rule 5 typically goes, what it’s there for, and the type of guy who gets picked there were several guys to protect above Song. Such as Ward. Who really belongs in this conversation. Song wasn’t picked until he reached Philly, Ward was the #1 pick

They also don’t have to put him on the 40 man yet, I think they have 15 days after opening day. A situation unique to Song

I truly believe the exemption increases the odds Philly returns him to Boston. But I believe they have to put him through waivers first so would t that mean another team could claim him? I can see a scenario where Philly is in competition and can’t afford to stash Song but he gets claimed by a team that can afford to do so…like Oakland.

I think we often fall into this trap that all prospects are boom or bust and forget that sometimes guys take time to develop. While my hopes for Duran might be shadow of what they once were I think he could develop into a useful bat first corner outfielder, maybe at the very least a speedy platoon player with pop from the left side. It's tough when your defense isn't great, because then you HAVE to hit.

What doesn’t make sense is who they DFAd in weeks ahead instead who they protected over Ward. If anything they look dumb getting nothing for him but Idk, it’s looking like a horrible move but we shall see.

There are also talk that song wanted to apply for an exemption back then; which he did and was denied multiple times while with the Sox. The Sox new this, which is why they rolled the dice with him in the 4th and round and not the 1st. At the time. There was legislation that if passed may have made it more likely he would have received an exemption. It did not.