Hugh2
-
Posts
3,727 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
7
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Hugh2
-
There's also so much fluidity between the rankings too the further you go down. There's not nearly as much of a difference between 20 and 60 as there is 19 and 1. Guys in that range are either career Milbers or maybe emergency depth types. Or they're are very young and raw and just breaking into the list.
-
I mean, you're not wrong on the Sox system not having a ton of high-caliber starter types BUT, these are also prospects ranked below 50. I don't think anyone's system has ever projected someone that low to be a starter.
-
Think about how different things could have been if the Sox hit on Sale and he stayed healthy. They'd have that guy, and better results may have led to an increased interest in investing in this team leading them to actually sign another ACE. In that permutation of the universe in some other world Maybe A Dominant Chris Sale is at the top of the rotation alongside Scherzer, Verlander or DeGrome this year. Who knows. There's nothing wrong with not being able to develop an ACE if you could at least develop several home grown #3's. THen you can fill in, not developing anything for a long time really stings.
-
That might be part of it but the weird thing is that Keith Law rated our system even lower than he did last year, when the consensus everywhere else in baseball is that the Sox system got much better. So, without getting into it something is up with his rankings. I think you are right though, AND I also think Law heavily weighs proximity to the majors. Mayer and Bleis are further away.
-
Pretty much. I really wish they could draft and develop pitchers better but if you are better at position players then I get it. You can always trade from surplus 4 deficit. 2022: first pitcher was Noah Dean 5th round. 2021: first pitcher taken was Elmer Rodriguez Cruz in the 4th round 2020: first pitcher taken was Shane Drohan in the 5th round. It's worth noting there were only 5 rounds this year. The international pool is more of the same. The Sox do have a lot of intriguing arms in the system, and some of these guys probably have MLB careers. But the only pitcher they had in their system who looked poised to be an impactful starting pitcher has just graduated the system. Bryan Bello.
-
I wouldn't be surprised if those two pitched like a #2 starter all year or not. Bello could be mediocre his first year, Whitlock might not take to a full season as a starter. But the team doesn't lack talent, not to be confused with a talented roster that instills confidence in the team.
-
There might be few teams that can compete with the Red Sox when it comes to range of outcomes for the 2023 season. The Sox have a lot of talent in this team, but much of it is a combination of unproven, age and injury risk. Just think how good Sale/Paxton/Kluber will be with a clean bill of health for example? Not going to go up/down the whole 40 man but that’s a reoccurring theme on this team. I won’t be surprised if the win 90+ games next year, conversely I also won’t be surprised if they only win 75 and everything goes horribly wrong.
-
Well even Zips projections have Devers with a higher OPS than his last two years. So everyone is betting on a career year from a 26 year old on the right side of his prime. The over is .900 low .900 OPS. I don’t think that’s unrealistic at all.
-
SP has Jimenez at 39, he actually rose from 44 recently but that's probably mostly due to people above him being traded or graduating. I think the fluidity between 40 and 60 is a lot larger than 20 and 40. Jimenez is about 1/2 a season away from not even being ranked, unless he really takes a step forward this year.
-
This is a good point, and would explain a lot.
-
To be fair, it has to be hard for a guy like Law to accurately rank 30 teams prospects. How man of these kids has he actually seen? and when he does see them it's a small sample size. People like Law rely heavily on the scouting and consensus of others, others who are legit scouts and evaluators but much of it is still second-hand knowledge. Which makes it all the more perplexing that his rankings are more out of line than others. Maybe I'm just biased against Law, I don't think he's horrible at what he does but he always seems to be lower on the Sox than anyone else.
-
Yes, but if you're going on athleticism there's a lot of guys that you can put above him right now. Gilberto was in everyone's top 20 a year ago, It looks more like Law is just late to the party on his drop-off.
-
I know we bump heads a lot and I'm kind of a dick but this is a great point. And a team should never be free of any critique.
-
I actually feel better about Law being the lowest on the Sox system after seeing his player rankings. How can he still have Jimenez in the top 20?
-
German in 1 year without taking up the 40 man today.
-
Yeah, but it’s everytime. He’s lower on the Sox system than everyone just about every year. That’s consistency. It will be interested to see where others rank the Sox
-
I also think one can’t discount the timing of Betts extension. $365 million looked a lot more enticing during a time when there was so much certainty in the world and we didn’t even know if there would be a season.
-
I agree with Notin here, otherwise we have to compare Betts to Wong/Verdugo and whatever 30.5 million gets you. Which is arbitrary, I could fudge the numbers and chose the contracts that give me negative WAR or 7 WAR. Realistically, it make sense to evaluate the trade through the lens that you traded one year of Betts, because that’s true, and whether or not LA traded for him knowing they would extend him probably doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t signing an extension here.
-
Three points about Keith Laws rankings: 1. This is one man, who hasn’t seen the vast majority of the guys he ranks, opinion. 2. A recent trend we’ve seen in baseball is how much higher value is placed on prospects in the upper minors. The Sox strength appears to be in A ball (Mayer, Bleis, Romero) 3. This is probably the most important one. Keith Law is very biased. He’s not a bad guy, I’ve heard him interviewed many times, he comes on the Soxprospects show sometimes but he is biased. He’s a lifelong New Yorker and maybe that’s a coincidence but he always has the Sox ranked lower than everyone else. It’s like clockwork. You can always count on Law to discount the Sox system compared to everyone else. It’s Laws law.
-
And becomes a closer. With a name like that, lord make it happen.
-
Odor gave you even platoon splits. He was a career .725-.681 hitter vs RHP/LHP the last 3 seasons Valdez has had much larger platoon splits. 2022 (.598-.388) 2021 (.926-.665) 2020 (.722-.567). Unlike Odor who is maybe a fringey starter, Valdez is a prototypical platoon player.
-
I like Valdez, and I think he has an MLB future but I have two big concerns about him. His ability to hit LHP, and his defense. His defense is very subpar, and if he's a blackhole against LHP he's most definitely a platoon bat. I think he will contribute in 2023 but if the Sox are counting on him to play every day at some point for a prolonged period of time I think they are in trouble.
-
In the absence of a significant injury in ST I think he absolutely does start the season in AAA
-
This is the one area that even a Bloom un-fan has to give him credit for; that bottom of the roster churn. They might turn around and then say he’s allergic to making good moves at the top of a roster. They….aren’t exactly wrong here. I think we can trade German. I don’t think we get much but it will be something. I think. Who knows, maybe not.
-
I mean, if you're projecting a future roster several years in the future and only include players under team control you have to pick from guys in your system. At that point in time a lot of your arbitration guys are gone, not resigned, and other contracts have expired, so of course it's going to be 19-year-old kids. The fact that the 2026 roster looks horrible. Now, Whitlock and Bello might take steps forward and maybe someone in the Cruz/Walter/Perales group pops and then that rotation might have potential. It's tough to say. But I think the futures page does a great job of outlining organizational depth and seeing area of needs. Where they look thin in the system in 2026/27 is where they should be focusing on development now. Of course, you can always rob peter to pay paul.