Hugh2

They usually update 1st of every month, but they’ve been late by a day or two before. Casas will graduate with the next update.

You're talking about a 20-year-old kid in A ball who has never pitched more than 35 innings in a season. He's not being ranked because of his stats right now, I highly doubt anyone considers this a "major concern" Moon I think you're letting your personal bias on scouting box scores on players cloud your judgment here. I don't think the ceiling or projection has changed one thread on Perales. It's going to take a lot more than one month of results to move them. He was not ranked because of his stats, he is ranked where he is because of his raw stuff is, it's very natural to have raw stuff, a high ceiling but very poor results because you're very young and just learning a routine. I'd be VERY VERY VERY surprised if they drop him below Drohan right now. He's probably #7 on the next rankings. I've been following soxprospects for a long time, I'm basing my opinions off of how I see them evaluate, rank, and move players. They're not and never have been quick to move guys based on SSS. Yorke had an entire lost season and they barely dropped him in their rankings. It took an ENTIRE lost season to drop him just 3 spots, and I'd say he only really dropped on two of those guys....Bleis just popped. THey really like Perales, they love his stuff, and they know he's a young guy who has a lot of development and I know they're not looking at the box score right now.

They don't cast such a large shadow when the guys you sign perform e.g. Story, Duval, Yoshida, Sale, Paxton, Kluber, etc etc.

Again, I understand the point people are trying to make here. And I think that when you dive that deep you're evaluating the organization, the GM, or the president (whatever title for whoever handles the role). But it still doesn't change the value of said return. If you trade player X for player Y, and it opens up a hole to trade for player B. it doesn't make player Y any better. Maybe the totality of the moves equals a better roster and the organization can be judged by that, but it does NOT change the value of said trade. Maybe I'm stretching this next point a little bit here, but it almost feels like a cop out to not say "hey maybe the return in the Betts trade wasn't that bad" Because thats one of the guys we got for Mookie, and no one is saying that trade looks a little better now.

Casas will graduate in the next rankings.

This almost kind of feels like a back handed compliment. If Sale is healthy, and his command is on, and he can be more consistent, I don't care if it's the Guardians, the Twins, or the Rays, he's going to give us a chance to win the game.

And Verdugo/Wong doesn't make it so? If a completely different trade. I just don't think it's a good ideal of getting in the habit of weighing two completely different trades against each other in terms of evaluating them. It just opens up pandora's box, and makes evaluating things convoluted. And it's just not accurate, they were two different trades at two different times.

That's just the thing, scouts over at soxprospects and other places know a LOT more about him than me or you. My opinion on this matter is 100% conjecture to be fair but based on my experience following soxprospects. Moving a guy like Perales down after a month as a 20 year old in his first full season of ball seem 100% against their typical moves.

Would we have liked the Mookie Betts trade better if Franchy Cordero turned into a stud?

Ok, I disagree, however I understand your point now and what you meant. I think it's a good look for the organization overall, but I can't evaluate one trade based entirely on another one. To me, you're evaluating Vasquez vs. Valdez/Abreau and that's it....It might be a good thing, better for the organization, and a good look that Wong/McGuire look great filling that hole but that doesn't change the trajectory of Valdez/Abreu

They have to weigh so much. If a guy has talent, but can't get results because command and control suck, or he has trouble with his mechanics etc etc etc. and he's 23/24 and in the high minors he's going to drop in value. But a 20-year-old? that's not very uncommon at all to struggle with those things. If his stuff is still there I highly doubt he moves much at all unless he REALLY stinks all year and there's a tick down in his stuff. etc. velocity drop etc etc.

A lot of the guys Drohan jumped over weren't ceiling guys like Perales. There's a difference jumping a few spots from 40-60 range vs. the top 20. Heck I'd say jumping from 12-7 is more of a jump than outside the top 60 to something like 25. I don't think it's impossible that Drohan moves ahead of him, I just don't think they're going to do it on the next rankings update, which should be due out any hour. It's not their MO to just move guys around month to month based on the box score.

We didn't get Wong back in the Vasquez trade. We got Emmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu back.

Those are good examples but remember, they didn’t immediately move those guys down either. By the time Downs fell he was much older in AAA. Perales is one of the youngest players in his league. So, I think he’d have to struggle all year, and if he did I could see him and Drohan sort of flipping places. Given his profile I don’t think they’d drop Perales more than a few spots unless he’s struggling all year and starts off next year bad too.

Writing Casas off already, huh?

For example, if Story’s injury issues continue I could easily see the Sox picking up a middle infielder, a CF/RF, and a starting pitcher or two over the next couple years. Depending on how Wong/McGuire look I could see a catcher too, but as of right now the catching position is showing a lot of promise.

Their projections are based on players in the Sox system today that are under contract then. It’s a good tool to see where you are thin and would look to improve via trade and FA.

I’ve been following soxprospects for a while, and while again I can’t speak for them I’d be very surprised if they jumped Drohan ahead of him. They don’t move guys up and down a lot month to month the higher up the list you go when there’s less fluidity. They also go by their scouting reports and not necessarily the stats. I think they even talked about this on either their last or second to last podcast.

Wong with a .955 OPS the last 7 games. If this kid can hit, with his defense he completely changes the Betts trade. Kind of ironic, it felt like he was the throw in prospect to Downs.

Paxton and Klubers money comes off as well. Along with Mondesi, Tapia, Braiser and Duvall, I think that’s about another 30. More money comes off the following year, and I really think the Sox go above the cap next year.

Wong was part of the Betts trade. With Verdugo

I can’t speak for Soxprospects.com but I’d be surprised if a month of baseball from a 20 year old in A ball is going to change their projection over a 24 year old who has performed well In AA. The massive jump Perales took was due to a testament to the ceiling they think he may posses. I really don’t think he gets passed by Drohan.

Walter, maybe. Perales and Mata no way.

It would be interesting if that was the case. I know it was in one of his starts, but I have no ideal about his last. If it was! It’s just another example of why you shouldn’t just scout the box score.

Verdugo/Wong + however you want to allocate $30 million.