Hugh2

That's right. released by the ANGELS for JUNK!!!

Why hasn't anyone else signed Iggy yet.... I don't get it.

Those last three are zero chance of happening. The cavalry ain't coming, and if it does it's going to be some version of Story/Mondesi/Wang.

barely gets you a bench bat now a days.

Here's the thing.....you don't think this is how things play out between team and player? "well you are worth this" "well we think my client is worth more than that, he's entering his prime" yada yada yada. If you don't budge, if you don't have incriminating photos of said player, or he isn't the small margin of players willing to take pay cuts to stay in their hometown (where is Verdugo from?) then you're going to have to loosen up that wallet a little bit. Like I said, it all depends on what you think the player will be moving forward. I think Verdugo is just entering his prime and his next 3-5 years will absolutely be his most productive.

And if you take out Nimmo year last year he was a 2.5 WAR guy, he had a career year in a walk year. What kind of payday does Verdugo get if he does that? how much more is it if he does it two years in a row? I'm not saying he's a 6 wAR guy, but in his prime do I think he can have a few seasons where he puts up 4-5? absolutely. Maybe you think that's dumb because you think how he is playing is a flash in the pan right now. I think Verdugo will come back down to earth but I also think he could be something in between, healthy, and in the middle of his prime. I suppose it all comes down to whether or not you believe in the player, because at the end of the day if Verdugo has two good years here, no one is going to give a s*** what his WAR was when he was 23.

Even if he's just a good reliever he's still worth the money.

You don't need vitamins when you have a perfect diet. I'am a little effing grouchy though, I drove all the way up to Boston last night to watch the Celtics blow game one.

Interesting you use Nimmo, because most of his WAR is attributed to only two good seasons. He put up a 4.6 WAR his age 25 seasons and followed that up with a .09 and a 1.8. Verdguo has already bettered his age 26 and 27 season the last two years and he still has all of this year to play. If he has a few good years like Nimmo did his last two and goes to free agency with a better track record than Nimmo had of staying healthy AND factoring in two years of inflation he would get more than Nimmo. It all comes down to what Verdugo wants. If he wants to stay here he will take a deal, if he wants to go to free agency he will get overpaid, and if he performs like he is now or something in between he's easily making 100+

Maybe 5/90 is too high, but I'd be willing to wager that Verdugo will get more money than the figures you all are throwing around here. This happens every time.

Verdugo also has a much better track record of staying healthy. If Nimmo had, he'd have got paid a lot more.

His defense also took a huge hit last year, when he was playing with injuries all year. This year he's healthy, and he looks much better out there.

I've been here before, the results are ALWAYS the same. You guys underestimate what guys will get paid. There is always an anecdotal occurrence to back up a different opinion, but most guys don't sign super team-friendly deals. You can't take rational to an irrational market. If Verdugo hits FA coming off of a great season or good and great it only takes ONE gm to think this is who he is in his prime and not the WAR he was putting up his first few years in the league. One, it only takes one. If we want to get serious about keeping guys we need honest conversations. Verdugo is NOT signing for 50 million dollars.

And here we are again. At the very least this time lets not insult the team by "low balling" verdugo. There's always an example out there of a guy taking less money, and we have yet to see Verdugo 23/24 seasons. Also, Reynolds had more arbitration years bought out than you can go for Verdugo right now. That's always going to lower AAV.

Verdugo was on pace for a 6 WAR season a few years ago and then get all fancy and tried to change his physique last year. Even his down years were decent. Just coming into his prime, if he has a good season this year AND next he's getting paid a f*** ton of money. Not Betts money obviously but if a guy is in the middle of his prime a team is going to weigh his last 1-2 years more than what he did years prior. Listen, we play this game EVERY time. When we were talking about extending Bogey, EVERYONE in here was throwing numbers around like 6/130 or less. I was the only ******* who said "ya'll are crazy, he's asking for 10/300 and it's going to take something in that ballpark to stop him from getting to free agency" I didn't think he would get that much, my prediction was 7/215, in the end it was closer than what anyone else was throwing around. As a general rule, whatever you think a guy is worth, DOUBLE it, that's what he's getting in FA. If you don't like it, well you can complain about trading him or let him walk and get a draft pick.

I'd start at 5/90 buying out his last arby year and see if he bites on that. He might, Verdugo strikes me as the type of guy who does not start slacking once he gets paid. I think he rewards the team.

Omg no, I don't even know if 5/100 gets it done. What do we think Dugo would get in FA right now? he's going into his prime.

f*** it, lets go for a sweep. I mean, we already won the Kluber start.

It would be a really good look for these Sox if they can take a series win vs. Toronto.

That’s often the case, which is why a lot of guys elect to go to FA pretty much no matter what they’re offered. Not surprised that people who are the best of the best at what they do in the world might have that “bet on themselves” mentality.

So you're surprised a guy with one year left before FA would sign an extension? WHy? it was said in here that the Sox should do the same with Bogaerts. But if our perception with players is that they're just going to go to FA then....well every player is different. Some are more willing to extensions than others. Bogaerts was also on his last payday chance. Making an extension for him less likely.

I will say this. I think we could both be right here. I’m 99% certain he won’t jump past Perales in the next rankings, and probably not June either. But proximity to the majors matters, if Drohan ceiling changes, and he’s projected as a solid #3 type or more then maybe he could leap frog Perales. But knowing Soxprospects they’re going to want to see a much larger sample of work and the uptick in stuff…and I just don’t see that happening in a couple months. They did say about him “ Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future” I think it’s plausible, my only criticism is I just don’t think they will be quick to do so. And it won’t be because Perales is struggling, it will be because Drohan takes another step forward and continues to show it for a few months

Problem is guys get off to slow starts, sometimes non prospects get off to hot starts. If Perales is a guy who has all the talent in the world but is struggling with consistency and command (because what 20-year-old doesn't) and they bump him down only to bump him back up a month later when he regains his stuff then rankings lose their legitimacy. It becomes all about the stats, anybody can rank any system just by looking at numbers. Rankings take into account so much more than stats, and Soxprospects tries to honor that as well as anyone else. Walter is a great example of that, as was Yorke, they barely nudged him and it's looking to pay dividends this year.

Based on their latest take on him, I highly doubt that happens. They’d need to see a prolonged period of not just bad stats but his “stuff” being down. Perales is ranked purely on his stuff, and it looks like they really like his stuff http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/04/notes-from-field-luis-perales-and-elmer.html?m=1

This is the thing, that's NOT why they're ranking him. They talk to scouts, and player development personnel, and the money soxprospects raises goes towards sending their scouts out and seeing these guys. They're looking at mechanics, arm slots, velocity, seeing what they're working on or not working on, who they're playing. There are SO many variables that go into account. Perales jump had everything to do with his raw stuff, what the scouts see in him, and very little to do with his stats. The older he gets and the more developed he becomes the more that stuff matters in the end. But right now there's so much stuff behind the scenes that we don't even see. They talk about this stuff often on their podcasts, and I'm basing this on their philosophy not my own. I happen to agree with it. July? IDK, maybe, that's a little bit more realistic but I still think no. But they jumped Drohan by a LOT because they thought he could do what he is already doing. That's what you would expect from a 24 year old in AA, it's not like he's doing additional things. I don't think they even care what the box score is on Perales right now. Lots of good information in their podcasts.