Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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If you took out the Rays series the Sox would be on pace for 101.25 wins this year.
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If a guy comes off the IL, does someone not have to be removed from the 40 man?
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I figured they would sign a catcher in Vazquez or Contreras and have McGuire/Wong battle for the second spot. I’m not saying Wong might not be the better catcher. My initial point was that McGuire is not a bad catcher.
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I have a math based degree and have studied advanced statistics. I don’t know what the appropriate sample size is. But saying he’s averaging 3 runs more per game this year is clearly too small. If it’s large enough sample size then maybe Reese should be the DH. He’s going to be the next .400 hitter since Ted Williams.
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I think you gotta switch Brasier and Ort. Brasier is next to go. Also, there’s no way Duran is getting DFAd for Duval. He’s be traded first but the way he’s playing lately why would t we want to keep him? Especially if this is for real. Kike is gone after this year so you have a hole in CF, and Yoshida could be a bust. I don’t think he is and it’s way too early but it ain’t looking good. Duval is gone too but Duran has team control. Unfortunately he has options (unfortunately for him) so he’s probably going to go back to and come back up again at least one more time this year. But if he keeps this up he’s going to be staying in the lineup
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Paxton Joely Martin Story Duval Mondesi That’s 5 spots. Some roster maneuvering will be taking place. Now, odds are 1-2 guys go onto the IL while those guys make their way back. Hopefully not much more nor anyone key.
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Eventually they will need a spot, a couple, and a Braisers 9 lives are up.
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If the variance between McGuires and Wongs CERA (in as smaller sample size) is much higher than your article lays out between catchers (with much larger sample sizes) by definition your sample size is too small. That’s common sense.
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I’ll repeat my statement from several days ago. Brazier is going to get DFAd before Ort.
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That’s not how it works. It’s an insanely small sample size. A large variance in a situation like this might be a bad catcher who would have allowed 1 more run in 30 innings, but instead he gave up 10 more in 30 innings; Which may easily be due to other factors such as the pitcher. That’s a very large variance, that you’re using for McGuire, in an insanely small sample size. Saying things like and a paraphrase “McGuire gives up 3 more runs a game” is stating a very large variance in a sample size.
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Told ya'll not to give up on Duran.
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That's statistics 101. The smaller the sample size the more likely an outcome will vary from the mean. Hence, higher variances.
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Easy, they will win a few more games above .500 and be a few games out from a wildcard. If more goes right than wrong maybe more. That's how. I'm not betting on it, but I'm rooting for it, and when you live in a world that isn't binary, and everything isn't black and white you can imagine a scenario where they win 90 games, and yes one where they stink and win 70. I would like to formally apologize for not being as doom and gloomy as everyone else.
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Yeah I knew it wasn’t pretty. I’m happy we didn’t resign Wacha, but we could of used an upgrade not a Kluber
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I don't remember I only drove by it twice, it's outside of Tampa Bay right off the highway and there doesn't seem to be much in the area, at first glance it would look like the traffic in/out would be easy. But...It's not like I got off the highway and tried going to a game so I don't really know.
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You would think with such poor attendance the drive in and out would be pretty easy.
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And I believe it's been said that what little relevance CERA does have on pitching performance (which is some just very little) takes a much larger sample size than most other stats. Which begs the question....why do we keep nitpicking his every start? "today McGuire gave up 3 more runs than he otherwise would have" but if there's anything to CERA we'd expect an elite catcher to save a run every week or two.....not 3 day.
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If the Sox listened to me from my armchair we'd have Senga over Kluber, Nimmo over Yoshida, Kike over Duvall (because he'd be in CF) and Swanson over whatever our SS is. Probably wouldn't have signed Martin and we'd be right below the luxury tax. Probably with a few more wins as well. But, things can change quick. It is a SSS. Also the early returns on Senga look good, but you have to think those walks are going to catch up to him eventually.
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Yes, they will.
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A large variance in small sample size is actually direct evidence that the small sample size is..... too small.
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And there's plenty of articles that Praise McGuires defense, and stats to back it up...except for CERA....this one year.....in a tiny tiny sample size....that has been largely discredited. McGuire is a good defensive catcher, he is average to above average at just about everything behind the plate from framing, blocking, and his pop times. With the later being a little down this year. AND he's one of the only guys hitting. Also, a typical starting catcher isn't going to give you as many games as a healthy starting SS or any other position player. A catcher might start 120 games a year and thats GOOD, but if your SS did that you'd be saying he can't stay on the field. So even if Wong starts more McGuire is going to be a better 2nd than just about anyone in the league. it's really perplexing that we are talking so much about Reese.
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This team might not be that good, but they're playing mediocre with some of their best players (reportedly) out. Duvall, Story, and Mondesi for however games we get him healthy this year conceivably should make this team much better. Even if they have bad or down years, it's very reasonable to assume that all of Kike, Casas, Arroyo, and Yoshida are not going to be as horrible as they've been so far. With that in mind, I think the team has potential. They're not good like Toronto, and Tampa Bay but if they stay healthy they will compete for a WC this year.
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Even in the article, they state that the study revolves around figuring out WHY some catchers have a better CERA and they point to metrics that are more measurable. Such as throwing out base runners, framing, blocking etc. If you use Statcast, all their data from all years then Reese is 34th out of 219 catchers in framing and 24th out of 73 in blocking skills. His pop times used to be elite but have taken a tick down this year which is the only thing I find concering so far but it's such a small sample size. He's an average to above-average defender, not gold glove caliber but by all means, he can catch. Wong seems to have the makings of a plus defender behind the plate too. I'm thoroughly convinced our pitching woes are on the pitchers. I actually think the McGuire/Wong combo is one of the seasons bright spots so far.
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Had one good game and stunk the rest of the way? Kluber did that too
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Sorry…12 years