Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I think Teel really changes the outlook for catching depth in the organization. Wouldn't change your summarization at all. I would add that with the changes in today's game, the bat-no-glove catcher is going to be less valuable. Especially if you can't control the run game, which leads me to believe that Hickey is effectively not a catching prospect at all. But between Teel and Garcia, the catching situation looks much better from top to bottom. Catchers do notoriously take longer to develop in the minors, so guys with potential such as Lira/Brannon are intriguing as well because of how young and raw they are. Brannon has a strong arm, and Lira despite the bat deficiencies seems to know the strike zone well. You can envision a scenario where he adds strength and bat speed and Brannon becomes more polished behind the dish. I've always had a biased against catching prospects, but drafting Teel has sort of moved my stance on this.
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This is why I think Rafaela has such a high floor as a player. If he doesn't improve ONE bit at chasing and gets exposed at the next level, he's still a utility guy who can add substantial value in the field and on the bases, heck he still might be a starter in other cities and maybe even here in peak years. I think it's a guarantee (effectively) he's a MLBer in some capacity But if he takes a step forward with his approach he could be a star. This is exactly why I think it's not a great ideal to rush him to the MLB level until he is ready. He certainly looks so by looking at the AAA stat line, but as we all know......AAA stats are not everything.
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One of the many reasons I considered Johanfran the better catching prospect in our system before Teel was drafted.
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Your gut feeling is pretty much buying a lotto ticket to say that the underlying data is wrong and Ceddanne will be the exception and not the rule. Entirely possible, but unlikely. The problem with Rafaela is he has really good contact skills, he's really good at putting wood on the ball. This seems like the opposite of a problem but when you combine it with a high chase right it's not great. Because it means he's hitting pitches he might have been better off missing and puts weak contact into play. He has one of the highest rates of swinging at pitches out of the zone than any minor leaguer. MLB pitching will be able to take advantage of that MUCH better than AAA pitchers can. And yes, there are guys that seem to be able hit MLB pitching great like that. But the fact that you have to name someon like Vladimir Guerrero proves it's the exception and not the rule. It's a huge red flag with Rafaela.
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Mookie Betts and David Price have been traded to Dodgers
Hugh2 replied to Jasonbay44's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You also never know who is going to dazzle and who will fizzle. Someone like Jordan or Bonaci might not make it or turn out to be fine players and need a few more years until they're productive 26' 27' and others could just skyrocket. Anthony doesn't have an ETA of 2025 right now, but he could be starting in Boston that year too. Same thing with Perales. -
I just find it ironic how people look at what a guy has done recently and think that's it for them and that's all they will ever be. Kike was "washed up" and I always made the argument that he'd be fine as a utility player. Plus I'm sure it probably helps playing somewhere were the fanbase hasn't grown to hate you. I never hated Kike, I was just disappointed in his play this year. I was very adamant that he'd do fine if used right and in the right circumstance. Others have held this opinion as well and Kike is making us look good right now. Also, a "change of scenery" may be at play here as well.
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JBJ was also rushed as well, which only makes the argument stronger for not rushing Ceddanne
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My brain......it hurts.
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Every scouting report I've ever read or listened to on him says his defense is plus in centerfield and ok at SS, that he's not the elite defender there.
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Ironically Kike Hernandez has been hitting very very well since leaving the Sox. And Ryan Braiser has been pitching like a shut down closer.
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Story didn't have a spring training, this is effectively his spring training. I have zero issue with him finishing a rehab assignment and getting reps in. If we wanted a short stop who can play D but not hit we've had that all year, and at various times had a SS who couldn't field OR hit. Taking one's time is never a horrible decision.
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Yes but that would be a waste. Rafaela has plus D in centerfield, but average defense at shortstop; which is still a very valuable thing. Still, when your defense goes from elite to average, your overall value can crater if you can not hit and Ceddanne has big question marks at the plate. I mean, imagine playing JBJ at SS and getting good but not great defense but with no bat. Ceddanne shouldn't be rushed, and if he is, it should be to play CF here.
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I think his D and speed is so good he's going to stick around, it's just if he can't hit he's not going to be a starter. High floor with him.
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He ain’t that guy yet! He has to do it at the MLB level against pitchers that should be able to expose him. It will be interesting to see how he handles that adjustment. Regardless, he’s an interesting guy for sure, and I love how he’s pushing the envelope
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You wouldn't know a fact if it jumped out of your decaff coffee and slapped you in the face. That's right....I bet you drink decaf coffee.
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GM's are people in their position can direct strategy and probably have their hands involved with the first draft pick or two. For example, Bloom may set the strategy of going under slot with the first pick and direct his scouting department to identify players they can draft later and give overslot bonuses too. But who knows how involved he is when players fall and they have to switch gears. My guess is that a LOT of that is on the director of amateur scouting. A great example of this was the 2022 draft. The Sox likely identified Mickey Romero has a good talent worthy of a late first-round pick who would sign for under slot, and then they could use a lot of that money in later rounds to sign guys like Roman Anthony and cutter Coffey. I think Bloom probably had his hands in those three names. After that, I don't think he's ever heard of any of these guys.
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I will almost gurantee you Dombrowski had no ideal who Bello was. Dave, and Bloom for this matter get way too much blame and credit for specific prospects. Aside from your top pick, they have almost nothing to do with the process. That's why it really grinds my gears when someone says "yeah well wasn't Rafaela a DD guy". I suppose the quick answer to that question is "yes" but the longer answer is "no he really isn't"
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Prospects
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A few of these have been eluded too by staff. Anthony will be #2
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Sox prospects new rankings come out any hour now here are a few predictions. Roman Anthony will be #2 Luis Perales will be the top pitching prospect in the system. Johanfran Garcia climbs the ladder and continues his rise as the top pitching prospects in the system after Teel. Teel will be top 7 in the system when he debuts.
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Also you can’t just look at the first round. When you get the a top two pick in the draft almost ever year you get the bonus pool money that comes with it. That money gets spent in later rounds signing guys who fall or have signability issues. That really helps to stock a system.
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Also helps constantly finishing last in the dictions and getting top picks. They e had multiple first rounders, the #1 overall pick twice and the #2 pick in your time frame.
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This is why I wanted Bloom to pick up a solid starting pitcher. Didn’t even have to be an ace just a good #3 a#4 guy. What are the odds all those guys come back healthy? What are the odds if they do all come back healthy everyone else stays healthy? Like you said, a cleaner bill of health only pushes people to the bullpen and strengthens it up.
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Orioles have had their fair share of first round busts over the ages, and yes high school players carry more risk, but more so with high school pitching. Sox have done better than most with drafting hs position players. There’s a reason the org. Is now ranked #2
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I see your choice of words there. That is fair. I’m apologize for implying you had a stick up your ass.