Nick

I would suggest resetting every 4th year and going got it other three years. So 2019 will be 2nd and 2020 will be 3rd year 'going' for and we then reset. 2017 tax reset Below $195M 2018 budget near $237M ($40M plus tax limit) 2019 budget near $246M 2020 budget near $248M. 2019 we're at $224M. We can sign Eovaldi and pick up a closer if need to in July. Say $18M for Eovaldi, putting Sox at $242M. Starting rotation of Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. All position players are back. 2020 Sandoval contract of $18M plus Nunez contract of $5M should cover most of the arbitration raises. I'm going to assume we'll sign Xander. His delta should be covered by Pearce/Moreland pay. Keep your fingers cross and JD returns for one more year. If JD returns, we sign Sale with Porcello's contract. We lose one starter, but we still have Price, Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi. We replace 1B internally (chavis?). Gotta live with him or Dalbec. If JD leaves, then sign both Porcello and Price with JD's money, $22M. Sale at $33M and Porcello at $25M. (that's $21M raise for both combined). Sign someone cheap to handle DH. 2021 Use JBJ's money to take care of Bett's delta and other arbitration raises. Screw the reset. 2022 We'll need to trade away some veterans to pay our younger players. CBA will be reset for 2022. Hope it goes up to $250M.

Winning the world series requires top line starting pitching in my opinion. This is where I have issues with in deciding who to keep, Sale or Porcello (for 2020). Porcello is a work horse. But I rather have Sale in the playoffs. As I get older, even as a fan, my focus begins to narrow on winning it all. So at my age, 63 and counting, I want the Sox to have top tier talent to go for it. I understand that playoffs can be a crap shoot but my feeling this year was whoever won the AL, would win the World Series. Sorry LA fans. I just didn't think you were good enough to win it all and I DON'T want to feel that way about a Sox team. Either go for it or re-tool and pick another year. I don't want to be the Atlanta Braves of 1990's. We can go for it in 2019 with simpling signing Eovaldi and pick up a closer in July if the pen situation is in disarray or move one of our starters to close. We don't need to do anything else to go for it in 2019. Henry will not squander this opportunity for few measly millions. I hope that he understands no one will give a damn about how much money he had when he died. But millions will remember how many World Series he won as owner of the Sox.

One of best trade we made was to give up Miller for three months and get E Rod in return. We should have turned right around and signed Miller, a win win situation.

It's my hope that Chavis, Dalbec or any other position players are traded for a reliever. Go through the farm and see which ones can be serviceable in the pen. Relievers are fickle. I would never waste the farm on a reliever unless he's a lock down closer under team control. And not too many of those are available.

Are you talking about 2019 or 2020? This is probably the biggest hit year for arbitration with Xander, Betts, JBJ and E Rod. My thought is if Sox wants to keep all four, then we will not sign Sale and extend JD. Something has to give.

Let's cut to the chase, again. What does it cost to be under second tier penalty by a penny? Luxury tax limit will be $206M, $208M and $210M over the next 3 years. For the sake of easy computation, let's put it at $210M and we spend $250M less a penny. For 2019, we're at 30% penalty for $40M and additional 12.5% surtax on $20M. That works out to $ 14.5M ($12M + $2.5M). Thus the total cost is $264.5M ($240M in payroll/benefits + $14.5M in penalties). For 2020, we'll be at 50% penalty for $40M and additional 12.5% surtax on $20M. That works out to $22.5M ($20M + $2.5M). Thus the total cost is $272.5M. ($240M in payroll/benefits + $22.5M in penalties). For 2021, it'll be same as 2020. Total cost is $272.5M. I think Henry can live with the budget of $272.5M. If you can't compete spending $246M, $248M and $250m over the next three years, you need a different GM.

Betts will be making close to if not over $25M by the time of his 3rd arbitration raise. That amount is already baked into our budget. What's another $10M if we are rebuilding a team around him in 2021? What's the famous line in movie Rounders? "Pay that man his money." We need for Chavis to be a major league starter by 2020. We need our farm system to fortify our pen. Hell, every pitcher we have is is being converted to the pen. That should be the area we can go cheap. You can't pay everyone $20M.

Trading for Cano is the dumbest thing Sox can do.

Your corrected me for not having arbitration numbers for 2020 but you did not DEDUCT arbitration numbers for FREE AGENTS, a la Xander, Thornburg and Holt, totaling $17.5M. Let's try again with numbers you have presented. Cot's number assuming no other additions for 2019 and using mlbtraderumors estimate of arbitration numbers for 2019 you presented above. Cot's estimate for 2019 as of today $18.572M OVER the limit of $206M addition for increase in 2020 limit +2.0M addition for 2019 arbitration players becoming FA in 2020 +$17.5M (Xander, Thornburg and Holt) addition for FA Porcello $22.0M + Sale $15M + Pearce $6.25 + Moreland $6.50 + Nunez $5.0 M = +$54.75 Pablo's contract expiring +$18.455 JD opting out +$22.0 M Increase in arbitration eligible numbers from 2019 to 2020 presented by Moon above....$24.725 (Includes 1st year arb eligible players Beni and Marco) If you add them all up, Sox will have $71.408 to spend on FA. Let's say we round it down to $65M for increase in player benefits and rounding out 40 man roster. We'll be missing Xander, Sale, Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg. How would you allocate $65M to stay under $208M and still be competitive? SP Sale, E Rod, Wright, Hector, Johnson ...definitely need a reliable starter. Would you spend $33M of $65M on Sale? Line Up 1 Betts 2 Beni 3 Devers 4 JBJ 5 Pedey 6 Vazquez 7 DH 8 1B 9 SS It would really help if JD does not opt out for another year. That would cost us $22M, worth it having JD. Bullpe I still think we have internal options. We can't have Sale, Xander and JD without trading away someone like JBJ. (if you want to stay below $208M) For $65M, we can have Xander ($20M), Eovaldi (sign him this winter at $16M) and JD Martinez(if he does not opt out). Our lineup will be strong. Would Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Hector, Johsnon good enough? Can anyone come up with championship team for $65M to reset in 2020? Or do we reset year later?

I guess my concern with reset during winter of his FA is to convince him we'll be competitive going forward.

I had the benefits but not the arbitration numbers. I come up with $155M but I'll buy your $160M. It would clear things up if some of our minor leaguers see the big league during 2019. Resetting after 2021 makes sense if Henry is willing to pay 50% tax on overage over $208M and additional 12.5% on overage over $228-247.9999M.

Lets cut to the chase. Committed contract amount for 2020 plus benefits add up to $116M. Luxury tax limit is $208M. I think we need to reset in 2020. Say another $20M for arbitration increases. That puts CB Payroll at $136M. We have $72M to work with. We don't have to worry about 2021 (ie signing Betts) as long as we reset in 2020. In theory out budget for 2021 is $250M. Penalty will be around $10M and Henry will pay it. We have Price, E Rod, Wright, Hector and Johnson. Bullpen can be constructed internally with what we'll have plus the farm. We have Vazquez, Pedroia, Devers, Beni, JBJ and Betts. We need 1B, DH, SS. If would help tremendously if JD will not opt out and wait one more year. Remember the goal is to spend less than $72M to shore up SP, 1B, DH and SS. Lets say we already have Eovaldi under contract for $17M. We then sign Xander for $20M. That leaves us with $25M. Can we be creative extending JD with another front loaded AAV value of $25M with opt out after 2 years? His cash outlay would be close to $27M. Or we can just say screw it and extend Porcello. We'd have starters of Price, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. We would need to fill 1B and DH internally. I guess we can always trade JBJ to create some cap room. We sign Betts for 2021 and out window will be extended for additional 2/3 years. I'm convinced we're not in as bad shape as many here think.

Offer Eovaldi 4 year deal with the money loaded up front, similar to JD. The goal is for him to have two good years. He'll opt out after we win in 2019 and 2020. Three peat.

Reading between the lines, DD expects 2019 to be the last year for our 1B tandem. That's savings of close to $13M. Next year will be last year for Nunez and his $5M. Pablo's $18M comes off the books. Sale's $15M also comes off along with Porcello's $22M. JD can opt out and saves us $22M. Xander's arb figure is $11M. I can see Pedey retiring after 2019 season. That's another $13M. We're up close to $120M. Our current CB Payroll is $225M. That figure is reduced to $105M for 2020 before arbitration raises. Set aside $20M for arbitration raises. Tax limit is $208M for 2020. That leaves us approximately $83M to 'go for it' in 2020. C Vazquez 1B Chavis? 2B Hernandez? SS Lin? 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH Dalbec? SP Sale, E Rod, Johnson, Hector (Wright is FA) Bullpen....???// Are we better off signing Eovaldi and Porcello (2019 and 2020) versus signing just Sale? ($40M for two SP versus $33M for one?) Or can we sign Eovaldi and Sale for $50M (again for 2020, Eovaldi would add $17M to 2019 payroll) We'd have $33M left to either sign JD or Xander. For 2021, we can then focus on signing Betts and letting JB go. In reality, JB's/Betts old payroll amounts should conver Betts new contract. I don't see a cliff as long as we insert cheap pieces for bullpen, 1B and 2B.

I think we have two year window. I advocate signing Eovaldi. It's difficult to fathom Price, Sale, Porcello and E Rod all being healthy all year. In terms of importance, Sox should focus on signing, extending Position Players Betts, JD Martinez (Beni, Devers under team control), will need 1B, SS, CF Starting Pitchers (Price, already under contract), Sale (Eovaldi, assuming we sign him this winter)

Think how different the conversation would be had we not won the World Series. Yikes. This is so much better. Now we're only worried about repeating in 2019 (and wouldn't jump off a cliff if we come up short). Sucks to be a Yankee fan. Things maybe looking up. But can they win it all? Pressure is all on them.

Only way I move Betts to 2B is if we sign Harper. That ain't happening.

That TV contract works out to $37M per team annually. Sox will spend it on players. Others will pocket it. Who is more consumer friendly? Sox or the Rays? Boras has a point.

Again, missing the point. Yep, Moreland was not going to be the last signing. JD was also not worried about Moreland signing. It wouldn't have matter who but Morleand and JD do not play same position. Moreland signing had nothing to do wit JD. I was merely pointing out that IN WORST CASE SCENARIO, he had every position covered BEFORE he went after the BIG FISH. That's what grown ups do in management. DD is methodical. DD is astute. DD gets what he wants.

Even Kimmi thinks we need Eovaldi.....I agree.

Can you see a scenario whereby Sox trading away one major piece (for younger pieces) and still remain competitive for 2020?

I think you go for it next two years while you still have Betts. We may need several one year rentals for 2020 to stay competitive.

Cost of luxury tax, $40M plus threshold penalty 2018 $40M x 20% + $20M x 12% = $ 8M + $2.4M = $10.4M total cost $50.4M 2019 $40M x 30% + $20M x 12% = $12M + $2.4M = $14.4M total cost $54.4M 2020 $40M x 50% + $20M x 12% = $20M + $2.4M = $22.4M total cost $62.4M Let's keep the math simple and assume that the luxury tax payroll is $200M. My question is this. In big scheme of things, is there a huge difference between $262.4M (50% penalty) vs $250.4M (20% penalty)? What I'm getting to is this. Once you make the decision NOT to adhere to the luxury tax limit of $200M, would $12M dissuade you from putting the best product on the field? For the Sox, the magic number is NOT $200M, but it's $240M and penalty of $22.4M (50%-3rd year) is not much off from the penalty of $10.4M (30% - 2nd year). We PISS AWAY that money each year in non performing payroll. It's only 5% more. ($12.4M/$250.4) We don't need to reset. Let's just wait for the new CB Agreement and hope the threshold gets a major bump for 2022,

How much is playing 14 additional games worth to the Red Sox? Not to the players, but to the team? Few years back there was an article about what it meant to the Yankees financially to get into the playoffs. The gist was it was worth another $30M or so. I was thinking at the time that would pay for FA signing for one year. Maybe I was just day dreaming. Any idea?

Pretty much everyone on Sox roster gets a pass after winning the World Series, for me. Even Pom, who did not hurt us.