To base next year's draft order on two year average makes absolute no sense. Teams with bad record from 2019 ALREADY benefited from having a bad record. Why would you reward them second season in a row by combining team's ineptitude from 2019?
MassLive
The Boston Red Sox dropped to 18-32 (.360 winning percentage) with an 8-4 loss to the Marlins on Wednesday. Only 10 games remain in this shortened 60-game season. The Sox are on pace to finish with 21.6 wins, which would put them near the bottom of the MLB standings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates at 14-34 (.292 winning percentage) are the frontrunners to finish with MLB’s worst record.
Boston has played better baseball recently. It is 6-5 in its past 11 games, and 12-14 in its past 26 games.
But the Red Sox still have the second worst winning percentage in the majors, which is a positive looking ahead to the 2021 MLB Draft.
Two potential frontline starters sit at the top of the draft board. Vanderbilt righty Kumar Rocker is projected to go No. 1 overall. Jack Leiter, another righty from Vanderbilt and the son of former major league pitcher Al Leiter, is projected to go No. 2 overall.
The order of the MLB Draft in a normal year is determined by reverse standings. The team with the worst record the previous season receives the No. 1 pick. The team with the second worst record receives the No. 2 pick. But commissioner Rob Manfred has the ability to modify the 2021 MLB Draft order because the 2020 season is fewer than 81 games.
As readers have pointed out to me on Twitter recently, if a 60-game season is enough to crown a World Series champion, then it should be enough to determine draft order. That’s a good point.
Best-case scenario for the Red Sox is to lose as many of their final 10 games as possible, finish with a bottom two record and hope Manfred decides to use the 2020 reverse standings to determine draft order.
Baseball America reported Aug. 31, “Sources believe nothing will change in terms of how the draft order is determined."
But MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo wrote Wednesday, “We don’t really know what the 2021 Draft order is going to look like, but we expect it to be some kind of combination/hybrid of the 2019 and 2020 season records.”
Mayo speculated MLB either combining each team’s record from 2019-20 or giving “equal weight to both seasons in a 50-50 split.” Mayo further explained, “Teams who have surprisingly done well or poorly this year move down or up more in the 50-50 system, pushing a team like the Padres down seven spots or a team like the Red Sox up five.”
The Red Sox were in position as of Wednesday to draft 14th by combining the 2019-20 records or ninth in a 50-50 system, Mayo pointed out.
Worst winning percentages in MLB this season:
Pirates: 14-34 (.292 winning percentage)
Red Sox 18-32 (.360 winning percentage)
Rangers 18-31 (.367 winning percentage)
Diamondbacks 19-31 (.380 winning percentage)
Nationals 18-29 (.383 winning percentage)
Angels 20-30 (.400 winning percentage)
Royals 21-29 (.420 winning percentage)