Nick

Rico is my favorite Red Sox....I became a fan in 1967 at the age of 11.

Let me be stupid and ask the following question. If the MLB season is cancelled, assuming minor league teams go ahead with their season, do we benefit? With improved farm, will we benefit from our younger kids getting to play another year? Do we benefit from expiring contracts while maintaining player controlled years on pre-arb and arb guys?

Yep....Sox 4 Yankees 1

My recollection was Sox over reacted to coming in second place to the White Sox in Jose Abreu sweepstake. I read somewhere Sox was NOT going to come in second place for two years in a row. Rest is history. Also we are on the hook for a portion of last year of Price's contract, $16M. Of course it has to count against our luxury tax. Otherwise we'd trade away bad contracts to get it off our books. Surprised we're discussing that...

I'm with you on this issue. I also pay attention to what the team says, including our manager. I'm not around people that lie constantly and I would hate to think Bloom is that type. He's pretty much done what he said he'd do. What I WANT and what I THINK the team will do is always different.

We ended 2018 championship year with $239M in payroll and opened with $243M in 2019. I remind you that on paper our starting rotation was solid, E Rod (34), Porcello (32), Sale (25), Price (22) and Eovaldi (12). We had JD (.940 OPS), Xander (.939 OPS), Devers (.916) and Betts (.915) leading the offense. Both JBJ and Beni ranked lower half of AL in OPS. So much for that 'great' outfield fans make up as years go by. Just like that our run was over. We were up 2-1 in AL Championship Series with 2 games left up in Fenway. What more could you want? It was an incredible season as far as I was concerned. It's a credit to Sox organization to become competitive again so quickly. We complain too much.

You throw in Price, Paxton (say if he's still hurt and options not picked) and JBJ (unlikely but we eat the option money in 2022), that's total of $123M to rebuild the team. You're left with Barnes final year and Sale. Others will be either arbitration or pre-arbitration. What I would like to see personally is to go after the shortstop we want (that can play defense) and extend Devers and build a team around them.

You're best at these things..... I simply refuse to believe we are 'cheap'. I believe Bloom is trying to come up with 'core' group to go for multiple championships. In theory, we only have three players with multiple year contracts, Sale, Barnes and Xander. Xander can opt out after 2022. I believe Bloom will fill out the roster with key free agent signings as soon as the 'core' group is identified, hopefully Devers will be at the top of his list. That core group surely includes extending Devers and Eovaldi, along with Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Verdugo. I think he will retain Dalbec, expect Duran to get a shot at some point and Casas and Yorke to join the group. Plenty of minor league arms in the bullpen mix if not as a starter. I like what's happening with our farm system.

Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man 2021 $147,825,000 (12) $152,189,618 (13) $165,665,645 (15) 2020 $ 73,428,704 ( 5) $ 80,584,972( 5) $216,269,251 ( 3) 2019 $203,079,488 ( 3) $220,307,173 ( 3) $237,199,519 ( 2) 2018 $182,406,139 ( 4) $198,733,661 ( 3) $193,316,649 ( 5 ) I just assumed the number in parenthesis was the rankings. Opening Day payrolls compiled by Baseball Prospectus include salaries and pro-rated signing bonuses for players on the active 25/26-man roster and injured list. Deferred payments and performance and award bonuses are not included. Year End 40-man roster payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned performance and award bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value. Year End Competitive Balance Tax payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include average annual value of contracts, earned bonuses, non-cash compensation, cash transactions, buyouts of unexercised options, and health and pension benefits. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

Cot's.....I think it's more of 40 man CBT payroll at year end. But I do think it takes into account mid summer acquisitions.

I would think end of year payroll is just as good if not better. It takes into account trade deadline acquisitions. But good work Moon. It's interesting to note that it was widely believed Cubs won a year early. There was talk (as always it seems) of dynasty. Cubs and Theo spent the money just to do that. Their end of year payroll went from $181M in 2016 to $186M, $198M and $220M. Obviously there was no dynasty let alone a repeat. On paper, Sox had good starting rotation going into 2019 but that season was derailed by injuries and other factors (I don't remember). I think the whole point is it is somewhat crapshoot but spending consistently will get you closer than not doing so.

Quick question. Tanner Houck has 100 days of service. Under the old CBA, Sox would still have 6 years of team control correct? Maybe 4 arbitrations?

Old Red, do you mean John Henry is not up to this standard?

I trust Bloom but not sure why the JBJ deal had to get done prior to lock out. Not sure if there were several teams clamoring to obtain JBJ before the lockout.

Sox can claim to be one of bigger spenders each year. I don't think they really care what you and I think on a seasonal basis. They are not cheap. Period.

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere. The Phillies, along with the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Astros, finished with a tax payroll within $4 million of last season’s $210 million collective bargaining tax threshold. According to information sent to clubs from the commissioner’s office and obtained by the Associated Press, the Phillies’ final CBT number for 2021 was $209.4 million. If you do the math, the Phillies were just $600,000 shy of going over the luxury tax. Philadelphia finished third in MLB in luxury tax payroll behind the Padres ($216.5) and Dodgers ($285.6 million). The Dodgers paid a $32.65 million luxury tax bill while the Padres were charged $1.29 million

Sale may opt out of contract after 2022 season This has not been discussed much....so in theory Sox can lose $25M Sale (opt out) $22M JD (FA) $20M Xander (opt out) $17M Eovaldi (FA) $10M Paxton $7.5M Kike (FA) $7.0M Vaz (FA) $7.0M Wacha (FA) $5.0M Hill (FA) That's $120M plus $16M for Price, total of $136M. 2022 off season will be interesting.

Great point and this is where Moon is off base. It did not cost Sox the entirety of JBJ contract. You have to reduce that liability by debt relief provided by Renfroe's contract, estimated to be $7M for 2022. My guess is Bloom as a former executive of Rays is betting Renfroe reached his peak offensively and his defense was suspect despite having high assist figure in 2021. It would be a typical Rays move, sell high on a player. Don't fall in love with a player. I'm one of those fans that's devoted to Sox. As long as the team is winning I will never complain. Sure it would be nice to retain Betts of the world but free agency is about player movement. Some here should be on suicide watch if we can't retain Devers. Not me. I'm just as anxious to see what type of return we can get for him. When push come to shove, no player is worth $300M contracts.

You think we have to give prospects, plus JBJ, plus assume his contract? Contract requires two parties receiving something in return. Under your scenario, what is Sox getting?

Playing devil's advocate.....what if we do the Ottavino deal with another club? Trade JBJ for prospects and pay most of his salary?

It's difficult to have a meaningful dialogue without knowing the revenue side of the equation. Padres went from $104M in 2019 to $184M in 2021. What happened? Holding out in 2019 and pocketing big chunk of money or did the owner go nuts, convinced he can win it all in 2021?

Football and Baseball teams have different business model. Football truly is more of 'non-competitive' competition from business standpoint. TV revenues are essentially shared equally among all 32 teams. Small market vs big market really does not exist. Games are essentially played for our national pastime of sports gambling. Difference comes from stadium revenues in football. Teams such as Dallas has huge advantage over say Green Bay due to number of luxury suites and such. There was a Forbes magazine article in mid 1980's that pointed out San Diego Padres had total revenue of $50M from all sources. The Yankees on the other hand surpassed that amount on LOCAL TV/Radio revenues alone. This disparity has not completely gone away. I am all for imposing minimum player spending or eliminate revenue sharing altogether. Let these owners go bankrupt. There's always willing owner to step in and throw good money away. That's the nature of capitalistic society. Tampa gets plenty of help from Sox and Yankee fans propping up their gate revenue.

Does Sale's name appear in 2021 rotation in my post? I'm comparing 2021 vs 2022 projected rotation in April. At worst, its a draw in my opinion.

You missed my point. Sale was NOT in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2021. Read carefully.

Interesting that some believe 2022 rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill and Wacha has greater health concerns than 2021 rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Erod, Richards and Perez. I don't see much difference when you consider E Rod did not pitch in 2020.