harmony

Drew Pomeranz in his prime has posted 0.1 fWAR in six starts this year with a $4.45 million annual salary in his second to last season before free agency. Pomeranz's fWAR this year has topped that of Adrian Beltre, who has been sidelined with an injury.

Drew Pomeranz cost the Red Sox prospect Anderson Espinoza, whom Baseball America had ranked 15th on its midseason prospect list last year: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#A5YoTVrM4rUspElO.97 Drew Pomeranz! In its updated prospect rankings this week, Baseball America has Rafael Devers at No. 14: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#pr7P2jBAs4xC0EL0.97 What is the comparative worth of two-and-a-half years of Drew Pomeranz, who last year posted half of his career value of $47.3 million, and one-and-a-half years of future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, who has posted an average annual value of $42 million over the past six seasons? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P#value

The Texas Rangers are only two games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. I doubt either team will sell off. Because the of luxury tax, the Red Sox probably face more financial constraint than the Rangers do. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers have only $93 million (including Adrian Beltre's $18 million) committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $165 million payroll: Meanwhile, the Red Sox already have $123 million committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $197 million payroll: Texas does not have a small-market team looking to shed payroll. With the nation's fifth-largest television, the Rangers rank 11th with a team valuation of $1.55 billion, according to Forbes magazine: https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/11-texas-rangers/#112282b164c6 The Red Sox rank third in team valuation at $2.7 billion, albeit with slower one-year growth than the Rangers: https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/3-boston-red-sox/#7c1449077275 I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough.

The added year of team control should add to the trade value of a player who has been averaged $42 million in value in his six seasons with Texas: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B#value Sure, Adrian Beltre is likely to regress with age, but he should still provide surplus value with his $18 million annual salary. The Rangers, who don't share the Red Sox luxury tax concerns, probably are not looking to dump salary.

The Seattle Mariners got only a supplemental draft pick in 2010 after the Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre, who was merely a Type B free agent under the antiquated compensation system in place at the time. With the compensation pick, the Mariners drafted righthander Taijuan Walker, whom the M's traded with Ketel Marte six-and-a-half years later for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis. Heading into today's game, Segura and Haniger had posted 1.3 fWAR each this season despite injuries that have limited the duo to 22 and 21 games, respectively.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier offers his take on Jackie Bradley Jr.: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/10/what-jackie-bradley-continues-struggle-plate/BmeTBwSJMT3Cwsa0Z9QgyK/story.html

The White Sox traded Chris Sale for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and pitcher Victor Diaz: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml#all_transactions_other

Andrew Benintendi has been solid, ranking third among rookie outfielders in fWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=40&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Things could be worse. No. 5 starter Yovani Gallardo is the only preseason projected Seattle starter who is not currently on a disabled list that includes James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Drew Smyly. The Mariners are mired 1.5 games behind the Red Sox.

For what it's worth, last July FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron ranked Mookie Betts seventh on his trade value list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-1-to-10/

We agree on this.

I don't think Steamer makes those projections, but FanGraphs currently projects the Seattle Mariners with a 2017 record of 80-82: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-W So the chances of a Mariner pennant this year are slipping away. I hope to witness another Seattle pennant in my lifetime but at age 61 my time is running out. Nevertheless thanks for asking. Trivia: In the three-plus seasons since Boston won the 2013 World Series, the Red Sox have a record of 257-258 while the Mariners have a record of 262-254.

ZiPS and Steamer project rest-of-season wRC+ of 97 and 105 for Jackie Bradley Jr. and 75 and 75 for Blake Swihart, who has posted a wRC+ of 71 in 52 plate appearances at Pawtucket this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C I hope we can agree on which player is the better defender.

ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Jackie Bradley Jr. with rest-of-season WAR of 2.1, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively, after Bradley posted 4.8 fWAR last year and 0.1 fWAR to date this season: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF

Beyond the Box Score examines Boston lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/5/5/15527622/eduardo-rodriguez-red-sox-breakout-strikeouts-walks

A hot streak is unlikely to change the trade value of a 27-year-old outfielder with 1,485 plate appearances in 410 MLB games. Jackie Bradley is what he is ... and carries some value. Of course Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi would command a greater return in trade.

Deven Marrero has posted a .169/.178/.211/.389 line in 73 plate appearances in 19 games this year at Pawtucket (with two errors) after posting a .198/.245/.242/.487 line in 388 plate appearances in 96 games last year (with 14 errors): http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=marrer001dev

To his credit, Bill Carrigan guided the Red Sox to World Series titles in the Babe Ruth years of 1915 and 1916

Manager Bill Carrigan guided the Boston Red Sox to last-place finishes in 1927, 1928 and 1929: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/ The Red Sox finished last six years running (and eight of nine straight seasons).

In 2015 the Toronto Blue Jays led the American League in scoring by 127 runs but finished fifth in runs scored last year en route to another postseason berth. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2015.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2016.shtml

Even the sabermetric skeptics on this forum might enjoy this analysis ... On this thread in January I compared the WAR projections for Andrew Benintendi and rookie Seattle outfielder Mitch Haniger: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17790-The-Benintendi-Thread?p=1046045&highlight=haniger#post1046045 Through Saturday's games Benintendi had posted an OPS+ of 118 with 0.5 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR in 17 games while Haniger had posted and OPS+ of 181 with 1.1 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR in 19 games. Benintendi went 5-for-5 on Sunday with five singles while Haniger went 3-for-4 with a double and a walk. Despite the January projections that leaned toward Haniger and Haniger's superior early-season performance, FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS all give Benintendi the edge for the remainder of season: FanGraphs Depth Charts project Benintendi with 2.4 WAR in 115 games and Haniger with 1.2 WAR in 115 games. Steamer projects Benintendi with 1.8 WAR in 113 games and Haniger with 1.4 WAR in 105 games. ZiPS projects Benintendi with 1.9 WAR in 119 games and Haniger with 1.3 WAR in 110 games. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14274&position=OF The updated projections would make little sense if one isolates on traditional statistics. However, I suspect Haniger's projections were hurt by his 22.7 percent strikeout rate and his likely unsustainable BABIP of .360. Benintendi has a strikeout rate of 13 percent and a BABIP of .333 after Saturday's games. Still it should be interesting to see how each rookie develops.

I have James Paxton in fantasy as well but failed in my bid to get Mitch Haniger. My team likewise is reeling from Starling Marte's suspension. For the second April in a row my fantasy team lost a base-stealer with the club's second-highest salary to an 80-day PED suspension. Last year it was Dee Gordon.

For what it's worth, entering the game at Toronto, Chris Sale did not have the highest fWAR of any American League lefthander scheduled today for his fourth start of the season. That honor would go to Seattle southpaw James Paxton, who posted 1.0 WAR and an ERA of 0.00 in three starts covering 21 innings while Sale had a WAR of 0.9 and as ERA of 1.25 in 21.2 innings. Paxton, who is nearly five months older than Sale, will be hard-pressed to match Sale's performance when the Mariner lefthander faces the Athletics tonight in Oakland.

WAR does not end the debate but I can think of no better publicly available statistic to begin the debate.

A misunderstanding of baseball analytics.