harmony

The John Lackey trade from a recent St. Louis perspective: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/goold-who-really-won-cards-startling-lackey-craig-trade-with/article_5881dfd5-2ea7-5527-b895-33cc9da78466.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

FanGraphs examines the respective needs of the Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-coming-red-sox-orioles-bidding-war/

What could the Red Sox fetch in return for one year of Drew Pomeranz?

For what it's worth, Seattle reliever Steve Cishek made his season debut with four pitches Monday night, getting Oakland slugger Khris Davis to ground out to shortstop. MLB Gameday: Athletics 5, Mariners 6 Final Score (05/15/2017) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Athletics vs. Mariners at Safeco Field

Matt Holliday has posted 0.7 bWAR with an OPS+ of 146 in 32 games while Mitch Moreland has posted 0.5 bWAR with an OPS+ of 110 in 37 games.

That offseason Falmouth native Steve Cishek signed a two-year, $10 million contract with Seattle and proceeded to post better numbers than Craig Kimbrel in 2016. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cishest01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml The pendulum has swung in the other direction this year as Kimbrel has been stellar while an injury has postponed Cishek's season debut (which is expected shortly).

Many folks on Red Sox forums would not have traded Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje for Craig Kimbrel, or Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz for Chris Sale. The initial negative reaction to each trade ranged from mild to harsh. Through a grieving-type process, many Sox fans came to accept each trade. My point is that perceived value evolves over time. Before a trade a fan tends to overvalue the assets of his or her team while undervaluing the assets of other teams. A trade itself can change the perception.

Drew Pomeranz in his prime has posted 0.1 fWAR in six starts this year with a $4.45 million annual salary in his second to last season before free agency. Pomeranz's fWAR this year has topped that of Adrian Beltre, who has been sidelined with an injury.

Drew Pomeranz cost the Red Sox prospect Anderson Espinoza, whom Baseball America had ranked 15th on its midseason prospect list last year: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#A5YoTVrM4rUspElO.97 Drew Pomeranz! In its updated prospect rankings this week, Baseball America has Rafael Devers at No. 14: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#pr7P2jBAs4xC0EL0.97 What is the comparative worth of two-and-a-half years of Drew Pomeranz, who last year posted half of his career value of $47.3 million, and one-and-a-half years of future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, who has posted an average annual value of $42 million over the past six seasons? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P#value

The Texas Rangers are only two games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. I doubt either team will sell off. Because the of luxury tax, the Red Sox probably face more financial constraint than the Rangers do. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers have only $93 million (including Adrian Beltre's $18 million) committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $165 million payroll: Meanwhile, the Red Sox already have $123 million committed to the 2018 payroll after opening this season with a $197 million payroll: Texas does not have a small-market team looking to shed payroll. With the nation's fifth-largest television, the Rangers rank 11th with a team valuation of $1.55 billion, according to Forbes magazine: https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/11-texas-rangers/#112282b164c6 The Red Sox rank third in team valuation at $2.7 billion, albeit with slower one-year growth than the Rangers: https://www.forbes.com/pictures/58cc474f31358e1a35ad373d/3-boston-red-sox/#7c1449077275 I doubt the Rangers would trade Beltre for anyone short of Rafael Devers ... and even Devers might not be enough.

The added year of team control should add to the trade value of a player who has been averaged $42 million in value in his six seasons with Texas: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B#value Sure, Adrian Beltre is likely to regress with age, but he should still provide surplus value with his $18 million annual salary. The Rangers, who don't share the Red Sox luxury tax concerns, probably are not looking to dump salary.

The Seattle Mariners got only a supplemental draft pick in 2010 after the Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre, who was merely a Type B free agent under the antiquated compensation system in place at the time. With the compensation pick, the Mariners drafted righthander Taijuan Walker, whom the M's traded with Ketel Marte six-and-a-half years later for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis. Heading into today's game, Segura and Haniger had posted 1.3 fWAR each this season despite injuries that have limited the duo to 22 and 21 games, respectively.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier offers his take on Jackie Bradley Jr.: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/10/what-jackie-bradley-continues-struggle-plate/BmeTBwSJMT3Cwsa0Z9QgyK/story.html

The White Sox traded Chris Sale for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and pitcher Victor Diaz: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml#all_transactions_other

Andrew Benintendi has been solid, ranking third among rookie outfielders in fWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=40&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Things could be worse. No. 5 starter Yovani Gallardo is the only preseason projected Seattle starter who is not currently on a disabled list that includes James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Drew Smyly. The Mariners are mired 1.5 games behind the Red Sox.

For what it's worth, last July FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron ranked Mookie Betts seventh on his trade value list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-1-to-10/

We agree on this.

I don't think Steamer makes those projections, but FanGraphs currently projects the Seattle Mariners with a 2017 record of 80-82: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-W So the chances of a Mariner pennant this year are slipping away. I hope to witness another Seattle pennant in my lifetime but at age 61 my time is running out. Nevertheless thanks for asking. Trivia: In the three-plus seasons since Boston won the 2013 World Series, the Red Sox have a record of 257-258 while the Mariners have a record of 262-254.

ZiPS and Steamer project rest-of-season wRC+ of 97 and 105 for Jackie Bradley Jr. and 75 and 75 for Blake Swihart, who has posted a wRC+ of 71 in 52 plate appearances at Pawtucket this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C I hope we can agree on which player is the better defender.

ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Jackie Bradley Jr. with rest-of-season WAR of 2.1, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively, after Bradley posted 4.8 fWAR last year and 0.1 fWAR to date this season: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF

Beyond the Box Score examines Boston lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/5/5/15527622/eduardo-rodriguez-red-sox-breakout-strikeouts-walks

A hot streak is unlikely to change the trade value of a 27-year-old outfielder with 1,485 plate appearances in 410 MLB games. Jackie Bradley is what he is ... and carries some value. Of course Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi would command a greater return in trade.

Deven Marrero has posted a .169/.178/.211/.389 line in 73 plate appearances in 19 games this year at Pawtucket (with two errors) after posting a .198/.245/.242/.487 line in 388 plate appearances in 96 games last year (with 14 errors): http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=marrer001dev

To his credit, Bill Carrigan guided the Red Sox to World Series titles in the Babe Ruth years of 1915 and 1916