harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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A year ago on this forum I suggested that Sam Travis was a mirror image of Seattle's Dan Vogelbach, another defensively limited first baseman and former teammate of Kyle Schwarber (Travis at Indiana University and Vogelbach with the 2015 Double A Tennessee Smokies). The 2018 projections are similar for Travis and Vogelbach, who were born about eight months apart and who each remain under team control for six seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14130&position=1B https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16263&position=1B https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/travisa01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vogelb000dan Each has displayed power this spring, posting these numbers entering Sunday's games: ST 47 PA, .267/.298/.622/.920 DV 51 PA, .400/.529/.850/1.379 Vogelbach may get his shot to start at first base as projected starter Ryon Healy recovers from hand surgery.
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I missed the report that other teams want Blake Swihart "badly." http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/blake-swihart-would-benefit-trade-and-his-trade-value-may-never-be-higher I guess a trade would take only one team that buys into the high end of the divergent 2018 projections for Swihart instead of many disturbingly low projections: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C
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Substance, if any, gets lost in the pervasive profanity.
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Some hold the same sentiment about the Red Sox.
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FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe offers his take on Hanley Ramirez: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-happy-healthy-hanley-ramirez/
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A week ago this Over the Monster podcast discussed the likelihood of a Blake Swihart trade: https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/3/8/17097978/red-sox-podcast-blake-swihart-trade-david-price-bullpen-usage
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Jason Kendall had already posted 20.1 fWAR when he was the current age of Blake Swihart, who has posted 2.0 fWAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=993&position=C
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What kind of return could the Red Sox expect in a trade of five years of Blake Swihart in light of his divergent 2018 projections as the switch-hitter approaches his 26th birthday in a few weeks? https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=swihar000bla
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The projected 2018 WAR of 0.7, which last year was valued at $5.5 million, and the $22 million vesting option for 2019. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS
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The tanking Miami Marlins are 11-6 in Grapefruit League play (a game and a half up on the Red Sox). A Spring Training record is not indicative of a team's quality but I suspect the Marlins are not nearly as bad as many fans think. Fans tend to exaggerate prognoses: the strengths of the Yankees are exaggerated just as the weaknesses of the Marlins are exaggerated.
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Blake Swihart reportedly will get a start at third base on Sunday: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/03/blake_swihart_boston_red_soxs.html#incart_river_index
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Just as I had hoped Blake Swihart's age 25 season last year would approach catcher Mike Zunino's age 25 season in 2016, I hope Swihart's age 26 season this year approaches Zunino's age 26 season in 2017.
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FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel project the following 2018 batting averages, on-base percentages and OPS for Blake Swihart: FG: .235/.296/.649 S: .242/.304/.672 Z: .228/.288/.726 M: .265/.333/.743 2017 AL average: .256/.324/.753
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Impressive. Where do you find that information?
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By my count Blake Swihart has appeared at catcher in only five* of his 13 Spring Training games so far this year (with five games as designated hitter, two games at first base and one game in left field). * counting the February 22 game against Northeastern University. Swihart has caught only four games against MLB foes.
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I suspect Marcel, Steamer and ZiPS have more sophisticated methods of reaching their projections than a forum poster does. Still, the range of the Marcel, Steamer and ZiPS projections is interesting.
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Marcel, Steamer and ZiPS have these 2018 projections for Blake Swihart: M: 211 PA, .265/.333/.413/.746 S: 81 PA, .242/.304/.368/.672 Z: 307 PA, .228/.288/.338/.626 Steamer and ZiPS project ISO (isolated power) of .126 and .110, respectively, for Swihart, who has an MLB career ISO of .113. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C
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On this forum about 14 months ago I compared Blake Swihart with Jarrod Saltalmacchia (and Mike Zunino). Early scouting reports on Swihart and Saltalamacchia were similar in terms of hitting tool and overall athleticism. Swihart and Saltalmacchia had similarly disappointing age 25 seasons, Swihart in 2017 and Saltalamacchia in 2010. In their age 25 seasons, each spent considerable time in the minors after gaining at least 100 games of MLB experience in previous years. It should be interesting to see whether Swihart can top Saltalamacchia's season high of 3.5 fWAR in 2013 or Saltalamacchia's career fWAR of 8.9.
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It should be interesting to see how Blake Swihart's career compares with that of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, another switch-hitting catcher who once was a top-ranked prospect.
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A blogger offers his opinion on the top five starting rotations in baseball: https://thekzonenews.com/2018/03/09/top-5-starting-pitching-rotations-heading-into-2018/
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I disagree with this Seattle blogger who proposed a trade of Rusney Castillo to the Mariners, but ... https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield
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The Red Sox signed righthand-hitting Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to a seven-year, $72.5 million contract in 2014 three-and-a-half months before the Arizona Diamondbacks signed righthand-hitting Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million contract. Castillo, who is three years older than Tomas, has posted 1.7 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR in 99 MLB games while Tomas has posted a negative 2.2 bWAR and a negative 1.4 fWAR in 305 MLB games. Neither contract has worked out but I would take Castillo and his glove over Tomas and his defensive liabilities.
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Rough start for Jalen Beeks against against a lineup of the Twins' top hitters.
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In terms of leadership skills, J.D. Martinez reminds me a tad of Adrian Gonzalez, another talented hitter. In the three years before joining the Red Sox, Gonzalez had posted an OPS of .910 and an OPS+ of 151 in 452 games. In the past three years Martinez has posted an OPS of .943 and an OPS+ of 148 in only 397 games. Gonzalez, who joined the Red Sox when he was about 22 months younger than Martinez's current age, had a stellar first season in Boston, posting an fWAR of 6.1, a bWAR of 6.9, an OPS of .957 and and OPS+ of 155. During that 2011 season Gonzalez signed a seven-year extension through his 36th birthday with an AAV of $22 million ... the same AAV that Martinez has in his five-year contract through his 35th birthday.
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I've already been reminded that I took the field against the Red Sox in the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes this offseason.