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Everything posted by notin
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How did MLBTR avoid the temptation to put him on their top 50 list?
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That was a general “you”. Not you specifically. Really aimed at any manager who trots out bullpen arm #8 as an opener. And it is a clever strategy. The biggest issue with deploying relievers by inning (e.g. setup guy in the 8th inning, closer in the 9th) is you cannot control the quality of hitters they face, and it can be an inefficient use of your best relief arms. But if you use one of those arms in the first inning, you are now using your better relievers to take down their better hitters. When done right, it shortens the game just as much as the traditional setup/closer strategy, just at the other end. But as teams far too often trot out someone like Colten Brewer, they’re not doing the strategy right and are instead just having a bullpen game, which is among the worst strategies in baseball in regards to pitching staff management…
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Bloom actually did ok with the Vazquez trade, getting two MLB-capable players for two months of a catcher. But he wouldn’t just do salary dumps. If he wasn’t getting some legitimate (in his assessment) prospect, he wouldn’t make the deal…
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Some of whom should be traded for pitching at some point…
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When done correctly (i.e. not with Joe Jacques), the opener is a clever matchup strategy. But the Sox and a couple other teams just employed it with random backend relievers, in which case you miss the entire point…
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Unless you like the opener strategy...
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Did you figure that out all by yourself?
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The other option is some sort of combo of Houck, Whitlock, Or Winckowski on the rotation and hopefully the Sox backfill the pen. I used to lather among Bloom’s flaws. Lately I’m wondering if he was even allowed to…
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Plus Pivetta is in his option year. Never discount that…
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Plan C. I’m on the Lauer Train first…
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Stanek isn’t a SP, but I’d still make him one before pitching Whitlock and Winckowski in that role…
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I don’t think anyone said Whitlock shouldn’t be in the bullpen, just that he wouldn’t be. And anyone who said he wouldn’t be has been correct so far…
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I do think Clevinger and Lauer both have better track record than Houck as starting pitchers, at least to date. Sign ‘em both! Wandy Peralta, too!
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All three belong in the bullpen…
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They can have him…
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So I see Lauer doesn’t get credit for 150 IP for his 2019 season in which he threw 149.2 IP. That’s fine. But signing him does make the bullpen that much stronger. That is important given the rotation is not going to carry this team. And many times has Houck thrown 150IP? Heck, how many times has Houck topped 107 IP? How many times has he topped 70 IP and kept his ERA under 5.00? And really, other than Montgomery, what available SP is a safe bet to get to 150 IP? Certainly not Snell, who’s only topped 130 IP twice. The same number of times Lauer has.
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Yes that’s the plan today. Yesterday out was “full throttle” in some fashion. I have to think they are largely flying by the seat of their pants. And I won’t eliminate th the possibility that they make a big signing simply because too good of an opportunity presented itself. I am more confident in the Clevinger/Lauer level signings. But I’m not out on Snell/Montgomery
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If that offer still stands, then there is a baseline. The bottom line is that unless the players lower their demands or the teams alter their budget, no one is signing these players. Now any player can change his requirement at any time. But of all the teams that can afford to change their budget, Boston is one of the better positioned teams to do so. And this won’t change until any of these players sign somewhere…
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Maybe Bailey can bring them back?
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I could see Clevinger or Lauer (is spin rate still a thing?) for a year. That’s Eric Lauer. Not Trevor Bauer. Totally different pitchers…
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And where do they go? Certainly there are a bunch of small market, non-spenders that will never be in play. While there are more big spending teams than MLB is used to, many of them have done their share of spending. Really the only traditional big spenders that have not been doing so are Boston (10th in payroll per Sportrac), San Francisco (12th) and Los Angeles of Anaheim (14th). Chicago Cubs (9th) should also be included. So these are the 4 likeliest landing spots for these free agents. Bellinger back to the Cubs. No brainer. Chapman is tough to fit anywhere if San Fran passes on him, which they have to date. But at a minimum, that limits Snell and Montgomery to Boston, SF, and LAA. And just Boston and LAA if SF signs Chapman…
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It seems that way to some, but so many teams are acting the same as Boston that it simply has not worked out for every free agent. Either the players have to come down, the teams go back up, or both. But right now it’s just too much of a stand-off…
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Fair. Some of those “improvements” involve compensating for departures. But I still think ours overall a better team than last year. And I didn’t even mention Giolito…
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Isn’t that also the argument to avoid Snell and Montgomery?
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I’m still optimistic. Why? Ok Starting at the 78 win baseline, and hoping to see: 1. Actual defense in the middle of the diamond. 2. A very effective bullpen that houses Houck and/or Whitlock all year (more likely with additions). 3. A full season of Tristan Casas post-adjustments 4. A more settled and improved Masatska Yoshida 5. Steps forward from Brayan Bello and the severely underrated and underappreciated Kutter Crawford 6. Outfield defense. It might exist next season. 7. A healthy Jarren Duran hopefully proving 2023 is not a fluke (with acknowledgement that Duran is still a viable trade candidate). 8. Option year Pivetta! 9. Vaughn Grissom, who can hopefully supplant Vaughn Eshelman as the New Greatest Vaughn in Sox History.
