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Fair. But if pitchers are riskier, doesn’t it make more sense to lock them up when they’re cheaper? As opposed to paying too dollar and THEN shelving them?

Possible he was simply a lousy 2b in college. There is this weird tendency to take overly speedy infielders and move them to the OF. There have been success stories (Billy Hamilton) but also serious flops (Donnie Sadler). I see the appeal, but I don’t think speed = defense. Some guys are fast but still lousy outfielders. And this makes no mention of Duran’s weakest defensive attribute - his arm…

For a 1b with a weak glove? I would wait and focus on locking up my SP cheap…

I’m not even sure what this means. Freeman did play in his 20s and never approached that kind of money, accepting an extension from Atlanta of about $105mill over 5 years at age 27. A Freeman in his 20s didn’t have an MVP award under his belt and had 2 of his 3 best seasons (by bWAR) in 2022 and 2023…

Ok but what if he doesn’t? Only 6 players reached both of those plateaus last season. And Freeman missed by one HR…

On everything but line drives. There all line drives in the box score…

Actually, Devers' AAV is higher than Betts. I suspect there was a lot of PR involved in the Devers' negotiations. After losing out on Betts and Bogaerts, I don't think the Sox could afford to let Devers walk as well. And it is hard to extend a player one year from free agency without basically paying free agent money for him. Plus Bett's deal was signed amidst a pandemic-induced shutdown. There may have been desperation on one or both sides to get something done...

Freeman got $27mill one season after winning an MVP award. Not sure his price tag goes up much higher 3 years later with him being 3 years older. If Freeman did get a $30mill AAV today at age 34, it would probably one be for 1 or 2 years...

I think they are trying to extend him to get him locked up through his arbitration years at a bargain price. Casas seems unwilling to play for a bargain price and prefers to go through arbitration unless Breslow hits his magic number. Not sure why/if they are not trying to extend Houck or Crawford. It's very possible attempts have been made. If either is unamenable to to same type of negotiation, then those extensions get more difficult. But the lack of stories about the subject doesn't mean there have been no negotiations...

I didn't miss it. I just don't buy into that media hype. They were getting injured as fast or faster in 2014 and 2015, but no one seems to mention that and only compares to 2023. These injures are no unprecedented. There is significant precedent. But that precedent doesn't serve the purpose of the adding controversy to the pitch clock. Add to it the pitchers this year have largely had big names and corresponding pay checks. But these numbers are not unheard of.

Casas has no track record right now. In his one season, he was worth less fWAR than Lamonte Wade Jr in SF. I suspect/hope he improves upon that, but he is very much an unknown. And the worst kind of unknown - one that wants to be paid significantly...

A risk inherent to every player ever. If either had a significant track record, that would be one thing. As of now, they do not...

No he doesn't. Maybe he has to prove more to Breslow. But it's unlikely you and he have the same threshold for proof...

Who said they were hot commodities? They're good pitchers. They might not be good starting pitchers, but if they get extended now, they probably won't be paid like good starting pitchers. So either you have cheap starters or moderately paid relievers. What's the risk?

I do not get why they moved him to the outfield, and why they kept him there. He should have been left at 2b...

I'd lock up Crawford and Houck before Casas. Despite repeated failed attempts by Bloom, first base is simply not the toughest position to fill adequately...

If Houck proves too much more, then the extension gets that much more expensive. If you lock him up early enough, you can get him for middle reliever/set up guy money. That reduces that chances of him being any sort of contractual albatross...

I can't think of any 24yo first basemen with 1 year of service time that have been extended recently to draw a comparison...

Would you extend Houck for 3/$24mill or 4/$32mill? Fairly short contracts that stand a good chance at being worth it even if he does not stick as a starter. Bello is NOT paid like 1/2. Bello has a lower AAV than Reynaldo Lopez, who barely has a track record as a starter...

No way should he get that. Freddie Freeman is only getting $27mill AAV, and he is a former MVP with a Hall of Fame track record. Casas has youth on his side here, but anything over $20mill is probably too much...

If Houck can be locked up to a deal like Bello with a ~$9mill AAV, he wouldn't even have to stay in the rotation to justify it. Set up men like Hector Neris and Matt Moore received $9mill this off-season. If you get him for less like a $5.5-6.5 mill, you find he is making about the same as some rather unexciting arms like John Brebbia, Keynan Middleton and Phil Maton. Why are teams paying Middleton and Brebbia that much, given they usually just each toss a couple innings and take the rest of the season to recover? I would expect a Houck extension to be close to Bello's in terms of AAV. If so, go for it. If they can get him for Martin Perez money ($8mill), the Sox will most definitely not regret it...

Not likely.. I doubt they regret extending Rafaela, even though he is one of those with the defensive reputation, but unlike White, he at least plays a position in which it can have a greater impact. As his AAV is only about $6.25mill, it might not be such a major regret, and the Sox have swallowed much bigger contracts, like Sandoval, Hanley and Rusney Castillo. Let's say Rafaela has a ceiling of Byron Buxton - 4.6 to 4.9 bWAR. If he reaches that, he is a bargain. But his floor is probably closer to Kevin Pillar (~1.5 to 2.0 bWAR). In the case of the latter, he still might not be a horrible investment, unless he gets replaced as a starter. Of course, injuries might change this somewhat. Bello's extension only carries a $9mill AAV. So even if he flounders, this type of money gets you a Wade Miley/Alex Wood type pitcher today. Miley is probably a bit underappreciated (and an insufferable ******* according to some) and if Bello can maintain that level of performance, the Sox will not likely regret it too much. Really unless he succumbs to injury problems, the Sox have a guy paid like a mid-tier SP who has potential to be much more. If he peaks at a mid-tier performance, he is not untradable under his current contract. I'd say his chances of not living up to his deal rest solely on his ability take the mound every 5 days...

I agree on the fielders. Very few players seem to make MLB solely with defensive reputations. Seattle's Evan White was one of the few who rose to MLB based on his glovework, and he was immediately extended b the Mariners. They now clearly regret doing so...

One largely unmentioned factor has been the demise of artificial turf surfaces that allowed groundballs to get through the infield faster...

There is more than that. Teams promoting top prospects can now earn an extra draft pick if the player accrues a year of service time per the PPI (Prospect Promotion Incentive) in the CBA. A prospect has to qualify by being a top 100 prospect on X number of lists and have less than 60 days service time in his career. Mayer certainly meets these requirements. If the Sox promoted Mayer before the service time deadline and let him accrue 172 days on the MLB roster, the Sox would receive an extra draft pick after this first round, in what we used to call the sandwich round. Jackson Holliday was promoted with 173 days left in the season for this exact reason. It certainly helped that he was absolutely raking in the minors and that some of the Orioles' infielders (notably Ramon Urias) were struggling. Story went down with about the same number of days left, leaving this an opportune time to promote Mayer as well. Except that at the time, Mayer had not yet played a game since August 2nd. This was probably a very large factor in not promoting him. And if it was not a factor, it damn well should have been. The Orioles might have been able to promote Heston Kjerstad as well, as he was eligible for the PPI. And the early struggles of Santander and Austin Hays certainly justified getting him into the lineup. Not sure why they did not, unless there is a limit to how many PPI picks a team can accrue. Or it could be as simple as they have faith in Hays and Santander ending their slumps, unlike Ramon Urias. They also might have promoted Kjerstad if Ryan O'Hearn was struggling, but he is flat out mashing right now...