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Everything posted by notin
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I saw it. They're giving extra rest to their starters especially during stretches where they have 5 or 6 games in a row. Is that helping? It certainly seems that way, since they have two starters headed to the All Star game who have not been full time starters since 2019 and who have combined for barely more IP total in the past 4 years than Giolito has had in the past two all by himself. Now my point is if Sale was in Boston, would he be getting this same treatment? And if not, how would that effect his performance here? (Yes, he would still be better than Cooper Criswell. But would he be in Cy Young talks and a solid frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year?)
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Well what is the going rate for 35yo pitchers who've only managed 150 IP in the past 4 years?
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I'm sticking with Tyler Anderson and Paul DeJong as my choice of realistic targets. I suppose Anderson could push himself out of the Sox range. Put Winckowski back in the bulllpen to help out there...
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I thought we established that was irrelevant. The bottom line is Sale would not be treated this way if he was still in Boston...
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They’re clearly babying Sale in a way the Sox couldn’t. Good for them as it’s working…
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You need to be Justin Steele to make it work with such a limited arsenal…
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It might raise concerns but it shouldn’t lead to conclusions. It could be as simple as making adjustments, which is harder to do in 323 PAs spread out over 3 years than if they were all in one. He’s 23 years old, and he’s got limited MLB action spread out over 3 years. Why are you trying to draw conclusions from this extremely limited data?
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But then he went down and they didn’t replace him. That was a definite issue…
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I think they moved him figuring they’re probably not going to get their IP from him, and someone had to go to fit a SP who can into the budget. But they clearly liked Grissom as well, and had to pay more cash to get him in return. Of course it didn’t help that they will get 0 IP from the guy they expected to provide 150-180 IP…
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Or just play DeJong since his best attribute isn’t his bat…
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Adding another starter would have been nice for Boston. I’ve repeatedly listed some MLB vet talent that settled for MiLB deals. No idea why Boston just avoided them all. Let me explain my point. An MLB season is about 1450 innings. A good goal for a team is to have the rotation pitch 800-850 innings, leaving the remaining IP for the bullpen. Sale in recent years has not been much for innings, with about 150 from 2029 thru 2023. If the Sox counted on Sale, and he only pitched 40 IP, they have fewer arms to handle that remaining 760-810 IP. The Braves, as shown by the 13 names listed previously, have many more arms to pick up that difference…
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Sale obviously makes the Sox that much better. But they simply couldn’t count on him. Giolito looked worse in every way but one - he has had superior durability to Sale. I suspect that was the goal here…
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At the beginning of the year, they had Strider, Fried, Morton, Lopez, Sale, Elder, Waldrep, Dodd, Vines, Smith-Shawver, Schwellenbach, Ynoa, and Winans. Their system is also working quite well for Reynaldo Lopez. That’s 13 starting pitchers. Who are the Sox top 13?
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I’m not asking how it works for the Braves’ overall won-loss record, just how it affects an individual pitcher’s performance and health. Is it better for ann individual pitcher? Does it somewhat mitigate the risk of injury? Or does it exacerbate it?
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Yes. His numbers as cited do include some bad luck, which isn’t hard to find. His BABIP is ridiculously low. He’s below league average BABIP for both groundballs and line drives. His expected slugging is low, as he has yet to show any power. That isn’t likely a luck factor. Could be related to his flu recovery. Could be he’s just not much of a power hitter…
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Huh? It didn’t matter who else Atalanta gives additional rest to. Charlie Morton also gets some. The point is Atlanta can do this because unlike Boston, they have multiple starting pitchers in the majors and ready to step in from the minors. Heck the Braves had a former MLB All Star on the AAA staff to start the season. If Sale was in Boston, would he be handled the same? Or would he be pitching with less rest more often?
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Well if he had chosen instead to gain the extra day with Dr. Sam Beckett, he might never have leapt home in time for first pitch…
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The Sox could not accommodate him similarly. We scrimp and scrounge to get a 5 man rotation. By the way, Bellhorn, this is what I have been talking about saying Atlanta was in a better position to accommodate Sale…
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Acquire a SS (DeJong?) Put Rafaela in CF. Move Duran to LF. Move O’Neill to RF. Abreu can be used as the 4th OF to give each a regularly scheduled Cora Break. Or he could be demoted to play more. Refsnyder moves to a RHH DH role in a platoon with Yoshida.
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No, those are built on a foundation of luck…
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Anything expected, like xBA, xOPS, etc…
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I didn’t come to that conclusion. Batting runs are a function of wOBA against league and park factors, among other things like position, etc. In order to accommodate luck, it would need an expected component, like xwOBA, xBABIP. Basically something that uses an expected outcome over an actual outcome, as this is how luck is included. I can’t find any such reference. https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/
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I don’t think luck is factored into fWAR…
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He might not contribute this year. Luckily a few guys who couldn’t contribute last year have stepped up…
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Of course Max keeps pointing out the Braves are giving Sale additional rest days. I can’t find evidence of that despite his slightly lower GS. But if that is the case in Atlanta, it should change the narrative here, since Boston doesn’t have the starter depth to accommodate him the same way…
