notin
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Means is looking at a deal anywhere from minor league contract to $1.5mill (aka The Fulmer Deal), and people are all up in arms like this is their Big Move for the off-season… -
Last year, Crochet was very open to an extension after a trade. I think he’ll get one. No idea on money/ years…
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I live in White Sox/Cubs country. It’s hard to cry “cheap ownership” to those fans. But I will say, far too often when fans call any owner cheap, they’re only referring to new money spent this year…
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Paying Fried got a lot less likely with the Yankees involved anyway. The Sox can’t outspend the Yankees, but they can put together better prospect packages…
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He really isn’t, sadly enough. Especially when compared to other owners. I mean, you’re calling a guy cheaper because he was outbid after putting up SEVEN HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS. In one bid for one player. How many full season payrolls spread across multiple years do you have to add up from the Pirates to get to $700mill? Or the Reds? Or As, Rays or Brewers? For all his penny-pinching, the Sox still had the 11th highest payroll in MLB. Over half the teams spent even less. Hell the Nats non-tendered their ALL STAR CLOSER a couple weeks ago because they didn’t want to pay him $4mil. Now THAT is being cheap…
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And sometimes it gets to the point where money is no longer a factor. When Trea Turner reached free agency, San Diego was determined to sign him at all costs. Philly was in it, too. Offers went back and forth a few times and his deal kept escalating. But Turner’s wife is from Philadelphia, and she wanted to go back there. Turner had to tell San Diego to please stop bidding. And of course they did. And took the bulk of the money they didn’t give Turner and spent it on another shortstop - Xander Bogaerts. Which is why his contract got so ridiculous as well…
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Are you selling your car any time soon? Please let me know. The offer was FIFTEEN THOUSAND or lottery tickets, and you only want the cost of the tickets?
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Also, it is impossible to measure top 25 vs unranked. The numbers are going to be lopsided. There are certainly more players in MLB that were never ranked in the top 25 than ones that were, for example. Way back when, I briefly scoured a few years worth of BA Top 100 lists that were old enough (even at the time) that the players had established themselves. I did find on any list of BA Top 100, you get (usually within +/- 5 the following: 10% All Stars, quite often multiple times 30% MLB starters, SPs and closers 30% Utility infielders, reserve outfielders, middle relievers 30% that simply never make MLB, beyond maybe a September call up. Having good prospects is essential, but counting on them? You’ll be disappear more often than elated…
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Ok, let’s make it 100 chances at $50,000,000. You in yet? (These are $2 tickets, by the way. No 33% chance of winning anything here.)
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So you’re saying they shouldn’t even try? I’d have been a lot more disappointed if they said “well, we did want Soto. But then the Mets got involved, so why bother?”
- 225 replies
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- garrett crochet
- kyle teel
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I do think owners have the opposite viewpoint as fans regarding spending. As shown repeatedly on this thread, the fan logic is “but Fried only costs money.” I think for ownership, the folks who pay those views, the logic is closer to “but Crochet only costs prospects.” And prospects can be enticing with their potential, but the reality is many are lottery tickets with regards to actual MLB output. Now, if you could pay your bills with lottery tickets, wouldn’t you? “I could put $15,000 down on that Tesla. Or I could instead give you TEN CHANCES to win $50,000,000!!”
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Just because YOU prefer Fried doesn’t mean he has the better future. Crochet might flop, but the risk is much less. Sign Fried for 8 years at $220+ mill and if he turns into David Price 2.0, where does that leave the Sox? Still needing pitching with a lot less to spend on it. But hey, maybe Breslow can pair him up in a trade with Roman Anthony in hopes that some other team takes on half of that contract! Also, why is Crochet with one good season a flash in the pan, but Teel with no seasons at all suddenly the “catcher of the future”?
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And yet with all that, the Mariners haven’t had a Japanese player come over to join their team since Yusei Kikuchi in 2019. The Red Sox currently have one…
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I’ve been railing about our defense all offseason, although limiting it to corner infield and catcher. I think Story will be leaps and bounds ahead of Rafaela at SS. 2b is a mystery but I think we have good candidates in house. (And why Bregman at 2b? Do the Sox care that little about defense on purpose?)
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But Ort could give you 12.9 BB/9
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Having attended a few White Sox games and watched the occasional one as well, this is very true. That team didn’t lose 121 games by playing stellar defense…
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Search “Plan Z”…
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Why would he sign with the Mariners?
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ERC was traded for a 26yo catcher with boring MiLB statistics and 15 career plate appearances in the Majors. I think both sides gave up here.,,
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Ok, but so was David Price. Fried will start to suck at some point on that contract. Maybe year 3. Maybe year 5. Most likely before year 8.
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Not his pick, high MiLB attrition rates for pitchers, and saw a need for catching depth. Like every org, the Sox have five other ERCs. His only distinguishable characteristic was that his name was Elmer…
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Odds are well against that happening. Even with their topflight farm,, the chances are the Sox don’t have multiple future All Stars. Remember when KC had 8 players in the BA top 100, including a few in the top 20? Looking back, those were a wide range of performers, with the best of the bunch coming from your choice of Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas or Wil Myers. Some, like Christian Colon, topped out at the utility infielder level. I think their best arm in that bunch was Jake Odorizzi. Of course the only other one I recall was Chris Haney, who I think never even made MLB. Or if he did, it was fleeting…
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Chicago didn’t..
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Not to mention, I’ve long postulated the Sox reluctance to sign Betts was directly tied to David Price’s contract (plus results). This was maybe partially confirmed by Zack Short. If Anthony or Campbell or Mayer really is the next superstar, I don’t want to see them hit free agency at 28 so we can keep paying 37yo Max Fried…
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With Rafaela signed long term and Anthony ahead of him, his opportunities were getting limited. And of course, Duran. (Remember the speculation about trading Duran for an ace? Well, so far we’re keeping him, too.) But Montgomery certainly might have been fun to watch in another universe…
