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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I think while fair value is not the goal, it’s quite often the solution, as a trade proposal only becomes a trade when both sides agree. And more trades are done for reasons related to money. In those cases, getting an overpayment (or even equal talent ) isn’t always the goal. I mean, no one thinks Cody Poteet is as good of a baseball player as Cody Bellinger…
  2. notin
    And it’s easy to say “I doubt it will.” Safe bet random message board banter has never influenced any front office. Is Abreu plus Hamilton fair value for Jones? Maybe? But if Pitt is trying to capitalize on a hot market, “fair value” probably isn’t their goal…
  3. notin
    They post it as is. They used to add money to one side or another to make it work, but then said so in the comments. In dont think they do that anymore since you can post lopsided trades with certain access levels (which the site admin clearly has)…
  4. notin
    I can’t speak to why they update, but I can theorize. But history has shown it is usually fairly accurate. Of course most teams probably use similar methods but with different sources to determine trade values of their players and targets, which is why it usually works. But sometimes it doesn’t. Is that because it’s just inaccurate? Or because sometimes teams overpay/underpay? I think it did a good job telling you what’s fair. That doesn’t mean every team only wants fair value…
  5. notin
    I doubt they figure the cost of replacing the player. And why should they? Abreu’s trade value isn’t affected at all by the presence of Roman Anthony. That might influence Boston’s desire to move him, but it doesn’t make him a better or cheaper player…
  6. notin
    At some point, what BTV cannot account for is what Pittsburgh thinks of those players…
  7. notin
    I’m sure there are some sites that project arbitration and free agent salaries. Of course there’s some balance because of those salaries get too high, it increases the value of the WAR that they are countering. Crochet’s trade worked out really well on the BTV model. Some trades dont. Kyle Tucker’s recent deal, for example, was a massive overpass by the Cubs on that model. A trade off Jones might beas well, but that’s going to happen every so often. The simple math they use can’t accommodate what tans feel their players are worth and what it will take to pay them away
  8. notin
    Sure it can. That’s probably why Luis Castillo’s surplus value has jumped about $30million in the past 5 months…
  9. notin
    BTV is drawing his value from various projections like Steamer, ZiPS, etc. and gave him a surplus of $40.4mill. So what are those sites projecting for him? And at what salaries? I assume those folks are fully aware of his age. Personally I think he’s not as available as folks want him to be. Mitch Keller, also rumored, feels like the guy they move…
  10. notin
    Or maybe some people are assuming the best for a pitcher with a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in AAA…
  11. notin
    9.8 K/9 last year….
  12. notin
    Why would you pay all of his salary AND include a prospect just to trade him? At that point, it’s just easier to release him. Also if the goal is roster flexibility, you can demote Yoshida to Worcester. He still has options left.
  13. notin
    No. Hes another interchangeable Sandy Leon/Ryan Hanigan type.
  14. notin
    If they sign Bregman to play 3B and move Devers into a 1B/DH combo with Casas, this makes sense. If they sign Bregman to play 2B, that would just be stupid. I get Cora knows Bregman personally, unlike me, and obviously has a much better idea of the guy's limitations and capabilities.. But moving him to 2B looks like a step towards Jim Hendry Baseball, as that man's motto was "just get 8 good hitters and figure out the positions later."
  15. notin
    I don't know why it has to be an either/or. Especially since the Sox biggest needs (catcher, pitching) are not readily available from the farm...
  16. notin
    Henry was willing to put $700mill on the table. This is a big step up. If he had been willing to put half of that on one player in 2020, we would never have needed to talk about Soto...
  17. notin
    Yeah not sure who AZ has queued up for the DH slot, but I think they might prefer the one year contract over the 3 year one here. They'll deal Montgomery, but not for Yoshida...
  18. notin
    His OPS was .879 from April 13th to August 19th, although he only played 63 games in that stretch. At some point around then, he likely tore his labrum...
  19. notin
    The biggest need on this team is far and away a good defensive catcher. A good catcher can make your pitchers better if he excels at pitch framing. Right now we have Connor Wong back there literally losing strike calls because of his poor framing skills. Getting Burnes to pitch to Wong would be like buying an original Manet and sticking on your fridge with magnets...
  20. notin
    If JH “could” do that, why wouldn’t Cohen be able to do it as well? Why do people think Henry (2024 est net worth $6 billion) is in the same financial ballpark as Cohen (2024 est net worth $21.3 billion)? Even FSG ($13billion) Durant compete with Cohen. But at least they have the same number of digits in their net worth…
  21. notin
    The Braves need a shortstop. They have nothing at that position between Orlando “Awful” Arcia and some 18yo kid in A ball. They do have a good catching prospect in AAA named Drake Baldwin, ranked among their top 5 prospects by most sources. Sure they won’t turn down pitching, but it also isn’t a shortage for them. Story for Murphy does make sense for both teams, except with the money. Someone even posted a video of some Braves vloggers citing Story as a good move for the Braves. And I think both teams improve their C/SS combos here as the Braves are probably better with Baldwin/Story than with Murphy/Arcia. But Story is owed roughly $70mill over 3 years. So the Sox need to pay that down. Get Murphy, start the Mayer era in Boston. (Murphy can also DH when he doesn’t catch, since the Sox don’t exactly have Marcell Ozuna hogging those at bats.) Make it happen, Breslow. AA is expecting your call…
  22. notin
    … which might be later than when Story hits it..
  23. notin
    Nobody is an Arcia fan. Not even Mrs. Arcia…
  24. notin
    Story plus $15mill for Murphy. I’d rather have SS and C manned by Mayer and Murphy than Story and Wong…
  25. notin
    With Marcell Ozuna under contract for 2025, it’s a very safe bet Atlanta wants no part of Yoshida. They might want Story, but the Sox probably have to kick in some serious cash to make that happen here..
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