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The data I posted had it around 2012, peaking in 2014-15. Of course this was TJ surgeries only, and it’s possible that advancements in the procedure allow for surgeries on tears previously deemed irreparable, or something like that…

Surgery is probably a more intimidating solution for affected players than for fans, many of whom think it should be done ASAP…

But you ignore that $25mill difference, which exists to adjust the Sox luxury tax position. And good year or bad, at some point Bregman is going to collect that $25mill. Of course the larger picture here is the consistent comparison of apples to basketballs. Sure a deferment lowers Bregman’s 2025 earnings, but are you absolutely positive the Detroit offer had no deferments? And for the record, “ none that I’ve heard of” is an unacceptable answer, especially since no one really gets into those details until after pen meets paper. We do know the total value of each deal, and the number of years required to play to earn that money. Beyond that, what other common ground do we really know?

Exactly. The pitch clock might have a long term effect on some pitchers, but determining it as the sole or even major cause for the “spike” in TJ surgeries in 2024 is not only premature, but completely ignores history. The one thing we do know that ruins all pitchers is pitching. And I’d think it’s likely multiple various aspects of pitching leads to that injury. But honestly, it’s looking more like media fluff about the rash. 2024 fit in just fine with the timeline for the past decade plus. And at some point, the scope of what the surgical procedure could handle was just as big of a factor as the injury. And already calling the pitch clock even a significant contributor is right now simply screaming “correlation equals causation!!” Its like listening to my late mother-in-law talk about home repairs, since she apparently believed her house was one giant holistic organism and changes made in any part of it could have negative consequences anywhere else (despite my father-in-law actually being a very handy guy). Nevertheless she would say things to my wife like “oh, your father went and replaced the gutter guards, so now the drier doesn’t work.” Or “your father went and installed those LED lights in the garage, so now we don’t get PBS!!”

If the data is indeed correct, the increase in TJ at the MLB level was around 2012. But was that because of some factor leading to more torn tendons? Or advances in the surgical procedure that allowed it to fix a wider range of injuries? Or some combo of both, since neither are simply static?

The data shows that same level of TJ surgeries were incurred in 2014 and 2015, back when a pitch clock was an ignored clause in the rule book. Blaming one spike on them right now is not only premature, it ignores history. And the pitch clock micro level thing ignores the obvious - was the previous way good? 15 seconds bad? 18 seconds good? 20 optimal? And how much better, because 2024 wasn’t the high point for this surgery. It might have been the high point for media stories about this surgery, but that’s not the same thing…

First of all, I think we were both wrong when we said “pitchers have always thrown as hard as possible.” We’ve all seen All Star games where pitchers were typically watch throw 93-94mph are suddenly hitting 98-99mph. Could be different radar guns, but it’s also possibly pitchers pacing themselves. Certainly starting pitchers throw fewer IP than they did 15 years ago, and relievers throw more, and the role of the bullpen has expanded in both IP and roster spots. Shift Ban Supporter Freddie Freeman confirmed that nowadays it’s not so simple to go the other way because “everyone throws 95 mph.” Maybe the reduced IP from starting pitchers throw fewer - an ongoing trend - appears to have encouraged pitchers to throw even harder. Maybe pace themselves less. I could see this causing issues. Maybe. Honestly looking over that blog data, there likely isn’t a single cause beyond simply pitching. With 390 roster spots dedicated to probably 800-900 pitchers over the course of a season, the range in the number of MLB Tommy John candidates isnt so large, ranging from 1 (2005) to 11 (2014, 2021). And none of them happened to a pitcher who started pitching that year. Ergonomically, every pitcher is different, capable of handling different limits. But over years of repetitive pitching motions, occasionally something will go wrong…

If this data is correct, it pretty much negates the pitch clock as the cause. https://www.leanblog.org/2024/04/theres-no-special-cause-of-common-cause-variation-tommy-john-surgeries/

It’s not about throwing as hard as you can. The reality is the “as hard as they can” has being increasing now for a while, and is us nearly 3mph over the past 15 years. Why? I think it’s the focus on velocity that has lead to work outs, exercises, and routines geared toward throwing harder and harder…

More likely cumbersome and burdensome. That's the fear we all face...

That was my EXACT post that you criticized. That he only needs to sign a 3 year $51mill deal to make up the rest of that money. That's basically the contract the younger but more frequently injured Tyler O'Neill just signed. I never said anything about how long it would take to get the $120mill. Just that he would get it . Even at age 34, if Bregman stays healthy, I think he will be able to get a 3 years $51mill deal before the 2028 season...

I doubt it's the pitch clock. Pitchers like to blame every change that comes along. Remember when Glasnow blamed his TJ on not being able to grip with foreign substances (aka cheat)? The reality is pitchers throw harder every year, and nothing hurts them more than throwing harder. In 2010, the average fastball was 91.6 mph. In 2016, it was 92.6mph. In 2024, it was up to 94.2 mph. And that is just in MLB. Kids are throwing harder in high school than need be, because radar gun readings equate to scholarships and signing bonuses. Giolito had TJ in high school because he was throwing 96-98 mph at 17 and 18. No one needs to throw that hard to get high school hitters out. But it worked for his draft status. Anyone who throws that hard that often from high school into his MLB career is very likely to have arm injuries at some point. The league isn't filled with ergonomic freaks like Nolan Ryan...

The last few spring trainings have featured actual rotation locks less and less each year…

So how long until we start seeing baseball players paid in Bitcoin?

Then deferred wealth needs to incur a timeline. Deferring $30mill over 5 years isnt the same as doing so over 20 years. Either way, it still not something to ignore altogether just because the future value is TBD. And with the money we are talking about here, it’s not really that important. Alex Bregman isnt going to need to get by utilizing the SNAP program until he gets his deferred money. With the salaries and annual values, it seems like it’s more a matter of pride than it is having enough financial security to ensure one’s great, great, great, great grandchildren won’t need student loans…

There shouldn’t be an argument that he positioned himself to make more money in the long run. Especially since defer means “postpone” and not “forget about altogether”…

Define “big season”…

It’s not Spring Training until Gerrit Cole has an MRI…

Kyle Gibson

I only referred to the total value, not just three years. But that didn’t stop you from correcting me. And my numbers were correct…

I never mentioned the Tigers…

94?

Abreu over Devers?

He will get the deferred money at some point. I think the $95mill will pay the bills in the meantime. He might have to cancel Netflix until then, however…

As I’ve said all off-season, they were one of the worst teams of all time. And then they traded away their best player…