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Everything posted by notin
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The mental approach I agree with. Baseball players might be the most superstitious people on the planet. But sometimes guys are lucky or unlucky. And sometimes it is blatantly noticeable and should be very obvious. On BDC I noticed a couple players whose stats clearly were not living up to their play. And while many were deriding these guys (Nava and Buchholz), I predicted bold turnarounds with startling accuracy and tried not to pat myself on the back for how incredibly I nailed them both. (I failed then and clearly still am.) That was all done with noticing good at bats that should have produced more hits and crunching BABIP numbers. Or less hits, when I did the same thing for Buchholz...
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Randomness is a huge factor plenty of times. When I used to coach, I'd remind the kids that you can do everything right and still not have it work out. Next time you're watching MLB Tonight and they do the Web Gems highlighting the fielders, sometime try and take note of the hitters. I remember one year being shocked at how many times Mark Kotsay was featured on Web Gems as the hitter being "gemmed". What adjustment was he supposed to make? Hit balls even tougher to make a play on?
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Darren O'Day also has issues wIth him.
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I was referring to signing Bautista as a non-issue . I don't think it's going to happen. Not sure Dombrowski thinks he's an improvement over the current roster...
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True unless "all in" meant "all in up to the tax limit"
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I tend to think given Dombrowski's history, the pick is less of a factor then his personal or staff's opinion of Bautista. This argument, while informative to me, is probably a non-issue...
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Agree 100%. I was going to comment on the misapplication and inability to resolve then outcomes on this thread, but I let it ride and found an answer I might have posted myself (although possibly using even more words). We all misspoke statistics at one time another for arguments/counterpoint. But such is the nature of baseball and stats. Even as much as I eschew certain evaluation techniques like the "eye test", I still use it myself and knowingly make the exact same mistakes I know are built into it.
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Picking up Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg cost the Sox 6 players likely to be in the BA Top 100. One late first round pick isn't going to restock the farm. So is Dombrowski all in or not? It's actually very possible he just doesn't think Bautista is very good any more and last year where his overall play was basically a wash with Moreland (as both would fit on the Sox) is likely to be his immediate future. If so, the lineup is pretty much set. However that does limit message board topics between now and February. ..
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what all star break?!?! 2016 or 2017?!??!
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Based on last season, it's practically a wash. Moreland was worth 12 DRS more than Hanley, who would shift to 1b. And Bautista was worth 13 Runs Created more than Moreland. However on average Bautista is typically worth about 42 RC over what Moreland was worth last season. While not likely Bautista tops him by so much agsin, it does come down to how much faith Dombrowski would have in Bautista bouncing back. If history is any indication, Dombrowski probably believes in Bautista. He does tend to ignore age for superstar players. ...
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Exactly. I don't think this idea comes down to Rodriguez vs Abad or Rodriguez vs Hembree. There are plenty of bullpen improvements still available. The Sox could trade or release either or both of Abad or Hembree and sign a body or two from the set of Holland, Storen, Hochevar, Petit, Romo, or David Herandez and still have the same depth...
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Any interest in Bautista will likely come in late January when he is more desperate. While his agent might be proposing the Stephen Drew/Kendrys's Morales route, both Bautista and hos agent have likely seen how badly that has worked out before...
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I started a post about Bautista a few weeks back and the response was almost universally"he's not a good fit," which I'm not sure exactly what that means. While he may never be the dominant hitter he was prior to 2016, he is certainly an upgrade over Moreland. Financially the Sox could fit him into tje budget by including an insanely low player (not team) option, as player options are automatically assumed when calculating AAV* However it would still require Bautista to accept a short term pillow contract. The loss of a draft pick is a concern, but less of one as it is a late round pick. If the Sox are "all in" to the point of dealing away Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Shaw, Diaz and Dubon, why would a late first round pick suddenly be a deal breaker?
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Because over their careers Wright has been the better starter and Pomeranz has been the better reliever...
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1. It doesn't mean he is right. Frankly I think its stupid to name your rotation in December. A lot can happen over the next four months. 3. Clearly this topic bothers you on some level. Feel free to start another.
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This is usually the exact strategy a lot teams employ...
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Yeah my auto correct sucks sometimes
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I don't think Travis has much of a chance at a bench spot. I see the 4-man bench as Young (or Moreland), Vazquez, Holt and either Rutledge or Plouffe if the Sox actually sign him...
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This is also true, especially when all weigh their opinion against a standard or established baseline. ..
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That's not a straw man. That's a paraphrase of the pro-"eye test" argument, with some intentional sarcasm thrown in. Really it is how many use the eye test, myself included. To say UZR is even remotely equally subjective to the eye test is an error of unfathomable ignorance and arrogance. It simply lacks the data content and any sort of baseline, both of which are the focal points of UZR. Just because UZR isn't perfect isn't the condemnation many want it to be, and its imperfections do not necessarily level the playing field with other defensive metrics, especially the eye test. Sort of like how while air travel isn't perfect - flights get delayed, baggage lost, etc. - that doesn't mean it becomes equal to walking...
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He spent most of his outings in a Sox uniform performing poorly as a starter. At the end of the year, Buchholz was out-pitching him...
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True, but the reverse is not necessarily true. Having someone else start the year in the bullpen can very much impede their ability to move into the rotation...
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That has got to be the WORST criticism of UZR ever. It's subjective because multiple people are involved? Really? As opposed to the "Eye Test" where dome fan who thinks he knows everything about defense but in reality has less knowledge than he realizes and no established baseline instead watches one team play 162 games and all the other teams 6 or 18 times, decides that is equal, and concludes "Hey Player X made more great plays by my proprietary definition of 'great' than any other shortstop so therefore he id the best defensive one in MLB!" No one ever said UZR was the end-all, be-all. But I will positively state it is far more accurate than any individual "eye test"...
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Then that also kills Soxprospects notion of Kelly in AAA. Teams put players in AAA for reasons other than development and service time. In fact, depth might be the biggest reason for most players in AAA. I do think fans overplayed his success and prefer to marry it to his potential. Wright has been much more successful than Rodriguez at the MLB level, but as he is nearly 10 years older, his bright future has already passed. And its not like putting Rodriguez in AAA in April postpones his debut. He's very likely to be up before May regardless. In fact, history tells us there is a significant chance the Sox don't leave Spring Training without an injured starter...
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There is a difference between"wanting him" to be a starter and "forcing him" to be a starter....
