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Everything posted by notin
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Coffee. No cream. No sugar. If I can go 86 years without a World Series, I can handle the occasional bitterness in my morning beverage. ..
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They do make up heights and weights, but everyone does that to the point where I wonder if it's stipulated in contracts. I've seen Pedroia listed as 5'10". Sure he is...
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Let's let Benintendi get hurt a couple times before he gets the fragile label. If he goes down, the options are unimpressive. Most likely a Holt/Young platoon. The outfield at Pawtucket doesn't provide much on the way of depth. The Sox could bring back Rusney Castillo, whose battled injuries himself and has a prohibitive salary. But that isn't likely due to the luxury tax. It's a shame because he might be their best outfielder in AAA. Although that isn't saying much given the other options are Allen Craig and Junior Lake. So ... Holt/Young if any outfielder goes down. Not exciting...
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I'd be surprised if the Sox tradef for Abreu, who opted out of his contract to receive arbitration and would severely cut into the luxury tax wiggle room. He would be an awesome addition. I also think Moreland will lose his job and Sam Travis will be playing first base by August....
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I wouldn't say Romo stinks, but he certainly gets hurt alot. I'd pass too. I'm ok with pen upgrades, But that will probably mean getting rid of Hembree and Abad, so these guys have a certain bat they have to teach to justify the money. Not that it is a high bar. I'd rather see some league deals for depth right now. ..
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Agree on Abad. It was a stupid trade from the word go. We gave up a minor league pitcher with options and released Tommy Layne in order to acquire a more expensive version of Tommy Layne.
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I don't think of Storen as a missed opportunity. He may or may not be an upgrade over Hembree, who would likely have been waived at some point if Storen was signed. However the Diamondbacks signed Rubby De La Rosa to a minor league deal. That was more of a missed opportunity. Not that I have great expectations for De La Rosa, but I would expect him to be an improvement over Owens and Johnson...
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He wouldn't have added any depth, so it comes down to whether or not he's an upgrade over Hembree. And if he is one, would he have been enough of one to justify losing luxury tax wiggle room?
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Absolutely fans love closers, especially closers who give great radar gun readings. Did Epstein go in so heavily because he wanted a closer? Or was he trying to get one of the best available players to end a 108 year drought?
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And despite all that, he was never a top 100 prospect on any list...
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The Chapman cost looks light, but it was in the aftermath of his domestic violence incident. The Dodgers were prepared to give up more for him before that. But many of the others were viable alternatives. Kimbrel was the biggest name. At the time (and this was bbefore signing Price), starting pitching looked like the bigger need and going in so heavily on a closer looked foolish and naive. The Sox had bigger issues in innings 1 thru 8 than in the ninth. But fans love closers, despite their inability to create wins. That's the nature of the role. When DDombrowski went in so big on Kimbrel, the big question was "will this team have enough leads to protect for one inning?"
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Kimbrel was a Nike sneaker. No different than a dozen off-brands, but at multiple times the cost...
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Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...
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Hey, they should have learned to field. Although, plenty of late bloomers get given up on by one team (or more) and go on to great careers. David Ortiz leaps to mind. I mean, seriously, Papi might have been the single greatest free agent ever acquired by the Red Sox. But was anyone excited at all when he was signed? I can admit I was more excited about Jeremy Giambi that off-season...
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Per Soxprospects.com, Carson Smith has just over 2 years of service time, meaning he pitches 2017 for the league minimum, and is eligible for arbitration in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Currently the Red Sox control him for all those years....
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Rare, but not unheard of. It is probably more common among defensively talented players, because their defense keeps them in the MLB level sometimes...
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Bradley drastically altered his swing by removing a preceding toe tap. This extremely minor change allowed him to start the physical bat movement portion of his swing mere fractions of a second earlier, with major changes to his productivity. But when Bradley was struggling, his BABIP was roughly equal to his xBABIP. He was not the victim of bad luck. He still has occasional hot and cold steaks, but these just seem to be normal variations around his new career norms. What Bradley needed to do was listen to his hitting coaches who tried to get him to eliminate that leading toe tap two years earlier. ..
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Actually I paid that pigeon. Best use of 3 popcorn kernels ever...
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There's a difference between saying streaks are a function solely of randomness and that the hot hand doesn't exist. Correct me if I have this wrong - your argument is streaks are the product of a brief period of elevated talent due to mechanical changes, hard work, etc. Like an adrenalin rush. The counterargument is that streaks are the product of luck (which enhances existing skill) but their very continuance is not dependent on their existence (i.e. the coin flipping analogy). So just because a player is 0 for 20 or 10 for 20 really has no impact on that 21st at bat. Do I have this right?
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I The bottom of every bullpen is questionable right now. Most teams don't spend money on their 5th, 6th and 7th relievers. The budget for the backend is limited for everyone, and the only pitchets who fit into it are usually a talent crapshoot. Getting a good pitcher is like winning a lottery. And how do you hedge your bets in a lottery? Sign as many tickets as possible to minor league deals...
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If the slumps are products of randomness, and many are, they can have predictive value. I made successful predictions in the past for Nava and Buchholz in those exact situations. Conversely a player like Leon who is clearly a random product of success can also allow for a predictable equalizing slump. But yes, injuries and certain personal criteria can mess with a player and create slumps that are not due to randomness and therefore have no predictive value...
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Well, for batting average we look at one extreme as being successful 30% of the time and the extreme worst limit as being successful 20% of the time. But those are our limits(-ish). Really we start thinking of a good hitter as maybe hitting .270 or above and a bad hitter as hitting .240 or below. So nearly every hitter will be successful between 20% of the time and 30% of the time. And we label based on whether or not they are successful 27% of the time or more, or 24% of the time or less. Thats a pretty small range...
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Yes, although Hanley got off to an amazing start in 2015 before banging up his shoulder. Had he not done that, his 2015 might have been better than his 2016. But yes, players do have wide fluctuations in performance. But really, these wide fluctuations still encompass a very small range....
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At this poiin the off-season, I would want the Sox to stockpile pitching depth for both the rotation and the bullpen. Pitchers like these are upgrades, but do not help in depth. While upgrades are certainly good, waiting until July when needs are easily identifiable does make some sense...
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Absolutely true. Just like I don't feel exactly the same every day, I don't see how athletes can't wake up with a sore ankle or a headache and we expect it to NOT be a factor in hitting a 95mph fastball. It's just a headache, right? We're close to the same page with our defonitions. I have a way of measuring that luck, which may or may not be accurate. But to me, hard work and increased skill still only allows for success with certain parameters. Which is why I think Sandy Leon was very lucky last year and not likely to repeat...
