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Yes there is a chance the Sox get a different declining reliever, but the idea is not for 5 years and not for $20mill per. If the Sox get Ottavino for 2 years, the likelihood he declines in 2 is less than the likelihood Kimbrel declines in five. And if he does, the wasted money is significantly less. It's like when the Sox signed Sandoval, I was on BDC saying the Sox would be better off acquiring Luis Valbuena. Well, it turned out that, like Sandoval, Valbuena also was pretty bad. But his deal was far less of n issue for the Angels than Sandoval's deal still is for Boston...

Yeah we all thought Cleveland was the most favorable ALDS opponent two years ago, too. Then they swept us...

I heard this team would be lucky to win 85 games...

That depends on the deals they get. If Kimbrel wants 5 years, like Jansen and Chapman received, set up guys like Ottavino were only looking at 2 year deals last year, which lines up better with Betts free agency and Benintendi's more costly arb years. Those 3 years make a big difference in a lot of ways. Also, while I can't see a match just yet, there is actually a realistic chance Dombrowski trades Bradley for a closer. The outfield defense will suffer in whichever corner JD Martinez plays, but finding a short term DH bat is usually not that difficult...

Primarily because he might be one of the top 7 options. Over the full season, Kelly has the third best fWAR among Sox relievers, behind only Kimbrel and Barnes. I do think Kelly and Poyner make the post-season roster. If you like using fWAR, Workman is more of a question mark, as he falls behind Hembree, Johnson, Marcus Walden, and Carson Smith in that category and is tied with Pomeranz...

I could see the first three, but Cuevas is a longshot and with 5.4 BB/9 this year in limited action, gives no indication that he is the solution to walking too many hitters. I still think Kelly makes the roster over the other options, but might be limited to less crucial situations...

That seems to be the early indication. He's 1-1 with a 2.11ERA and a 0.797WHIP against them this year, albeit in 3 starts and 21.1 IP. Rodriguez has been far less effective...

Whether or not pitching "in Boston" is supposed to be some sort of supernatural skill is not the issue with Kimbrel. He can have whatever magical mindset fans claim he needs, but that isn't going to stop him from turning 35 at some point in his next contract. Were Davis' issues solely related to Coors? He certainly struggled there, but it's not like he was stellar on the road. He might be a case of age turning into his decline...

The Rockies also threw a ton of money at proven relievers in McGee, Davis and Shaw, only to see that even relievers can lose some effectiveness with age, especially if injuries start to pile up. All three had their worst seasons. Also, McGee was not help from the outside, yet even he had one of the worst seasons of his career...

He might be, depending on what he has left from ages 31 to 35. In fact, it is entirely possible Kimbrel himself won't be a good replacement for Kimbrel. We've probably already seen his best days. That doesn't mean he immediately falls off a cliff come opening day in 2019, but certainly you should be expecting a slow decline over those years that hopefully does not give the signing team one or two years of a $20mill BP pitcher. Will a 33yo Kimbrel still be better than any alternatives? He will probably be pricier. I'd rather gamble on keeping as many Killer B's as possible. If you think Kimbrel will be tough to replace, how tough will Betts be?

Early media guesses. Again, given the deals for Chapman (5 years / $86mill), Kenley Jansen (5 years / $80mill) and Wade Davis (3 yrs / $52mill at age 33), it is actually a fairly realisitic estimate. Even if he doesn't get that, he will certainly be close, especially with 5 years...

It’s funny you single me out for asking about Bellhorn’s point. Also the $100mil/5 year is the framework being thrown around in the media. Given the deals Chapman and David received, it is not unrealistic. But if you’re in the “Kimbrel at any cost “ camp, not sure why that matters...

1. The years are king, as one or both deals might be shed before necessary. 2. It’s cheaper, because it fills two roles. And possibly more effectively.

Especially since getting hot in September is pretty meaningless, what with the league so full of AAA pitchers...

Don’t tell ARod or Andre Dawson...

There’s also a really good certainty that spending $100mill to watch Kimbrel decline leaves the Sox with $100mill less to spend re-signing Betts and/or Benintendi as they peak...

Losing Kimbrel and signing both, say, Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino for basically the same money might make for a better bullpen than signing Kimbrel alone. And both Familia and Ottavino are very unlikely to command five years...

I thought that was fairly obvious. Is it escaping some people?

And do you know what they call people who ignore warnings of pending cliffs? I’m not sure, either. But I think “red stuff smeared on a bunch of rocks,” while cumbersome, is fairly accurate...

It's not a weak argument. It's a stupid argument. The Guardians have 3 of the 6 highest fWAR players and the 4 highest fWAR pitchers in the AL Central. And while the Guardians are good, the rest of that division is flat out awful. Whit Merrifield and Eduardo Escobar are the only two non-Cleveland position players from AL Central teams in the top 20 by fWAR of the American League. Nick Castellanos is the other before the next Cleveland player (Brantley). In the top 37 players by WAR in the American League, Cleveland has as many (and better) players as the other four teams in the division combined. And that's not evne getting into the pitching, which they beyond dominate. Not only do the Guardians walk away with that division even without Ramirez, they walk away without Lindor as well. And possibly Kluber, too...

It's much more likely all 4 are left off the roster than Cuevas being placed on it. If Cora goes with an 8-man bullpen, Kimbrel, Brasier, Wright, Kelly, Workman, Velasquez, ERod, and Barnes is a likely set. Johnson and/or Poyner might eliminate someone from that list. Cuevas is a few injuries away from entering the conversation...

You might say that you don't look ahead and try to gauge where the market will be, but that is Dombrowski's job....

Better to give away those games in September than in October...

The entire point is it was one game from Cuevas, and against a team not really playing for anything. Did you watch his other games this year? He was pretty weak all year in the other games we all watched. Hembree has been pretty bad for a couple months, but also gave the Sox 3 very good months before that. But really, before last night, what has Cuevas done? And you people who watch the games always assume those of us who know the stats don't watch. Why is that? All I did was ask you what was it about Cuevas you liked? So far, the answer is, he had one good outing. Is that correct?

1. Is Kimbreal really the best closer in the league? He's certainly up there, but Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Edwin Diaz are, too. 2. How much longer will he be an elite closer? He certainly has not been one since the All Star break. Re-signing Kimbrel will probably work out in 2019 and maybe 2020. But if he is signed until 2022 or 2023 or later, he absolutely will be a liability at some point. And not a cheap one. Reportedly he will become the mopst expensive closer in MLB history, and if the early rumors are true, by a lot. This will definitely hamper the Sox ability to retain as many of the Killer B's as possible, and if you think it is going to be tough to replace Kimbrel, how tough do you think it will be to replace Betts or Benintendi or Bogaerts? Which of those three would you give up to keep Kimbrel? It is very likely to come down to at least one of them. In fact, what if it comes down to the non-Boras clients, Betts and Benintendi? Would you rather keep Kimbrel and let one of them walk? Keeping Kimbrel might help the Sox ability to hold leads, but if they lose the Killer B's, there might be a time when getting those leads to protect is a bigger problem. This team has found closers before and will again. No need to have the most expensive one because of what he used to be...