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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    1. I think Swihart was only in the lineup because Moreland and Bradley are lefties. Personally, I would take Moreland in a lefty-lefty match up right now over offensive non-factor Swihart batting from his weaker side. But I think Coara was taking into account that Manea had no-hit the Sox his last time out and was hoping for better results. 2. There are the occasional plays where I think "Bradley would have had that", but really, that is just conjecture. It might occasionally be correct, but there are a lot of factors. There was a sac fly in the Yankee series when Betts was in CF and his throw home was short and late and my first thought was "Bradley nails that guy at the plate." But in reality, probably not. He's more likely to sail his throw 20 feet up the third base line as he is to nail the runner. A better chance with Bradley? Defintely. But anything beyond that is conjecture...
  2. notin
    We also did before when Manny was here with Ortiz. For all his craziness, Manny did top the 1.000 OPS mark 5 times in Boston and in his first 7 full seasons, only once had an OPS under .982. (Interestingly enough, the Sox won a World Series that year.)
  3. notin
    There are 17 players hitting under .200 with enough at bats to qualify. Some names inlclude Matt Carpenter, Jason Kipnis, Joey Gallo, Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Kole Calhoun, Dexter Fowler and Carlos Santana. All of them are staying in the majors...
  4. notin
    I think the most misused word in the English language has to be "can't". Devers has had 400 career plate appearances in MLB; what he can and can't do is still a mysery to most people, possibly even including the Sox staff. Now what he has done and hasn;t done might not be, but just because he hasn't done something doesn't mean he can't. I'm also not so sure I'd say he hasn't hit breaking pitches. I might go so far as to say he has struggled against sinkers and cut fastballs, but that is all. https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B
  5. notin
    Or simple demote Bradley and use his last option...
  6. notin
    No one can snag him up. He has an option left. Bradley's isn't getting DFA'd or released while he still has an option left. Pedroia might be back in a couple weeks. If he is and there are no other injuries, it is entirely possible Bradley is demoted to Pawtucket to clear space on the 25-man roster for Pedroia. Two problems resolved...
  7. notin
    I don't think he was disappointing the Pythagorean theorem for wins, which he developed. I think what he was getting at was that WAR for a player seems to be separated from the team play and focused on the individual. Sort of the opposite of win shares. For example, if the Yankees were 2 games below their projected wins (in real time), how could Judge be worth 8 wins?
  8. notin
    What stat is perfect? What method of player evaluation is perfect? James himself has had his own all-encompassing stats, like Win Shares, which eventually lead to the pre-cursors of WAR, VORP and WARP. If the only criticism of WAR is that it isn't perfect, tell me what metric is...
  9. notin
    As far away from the situation as we all are, I'm surprised any of us can see anything at all...
  10. notin
    It appears to be drifting that way. A lot was made of the declining salaries this past off-season for the available free agents. But the one position that actually made out quite well was relief pitcher. With starters going an average of about 5.1 IP/start, teams are more and more realizing bullpens are not just a roster spot you dump off the guy who couldn't cut it in the rotation. Bullpens are responsible for nearly 4IP every game on average. Probably why you never hear the expression "banished to the bullpen" anymore. Maybe in a couple of years, we will start seeing pitchers who couldn't cut it in the bullpen as being "banished to the rotation." OK, maybe not...
  11. notin
    I think you might have been thiinking about SLG, where he is second in MLB from 2014-2017, behind only Trout...
  12. notin
    I bet Kimbrel thinks he is capable of getting a 12 out save. Talent is certainly a big part of it, but you don't get as far as Kimbrel if you have easily shakable confidence. I know he has 0 6 out saves in his career. But how many pitchers have any number of 5 out saves? That Kimbrel has zero 5-out saves is probably more a statement about bullpen specialization and opportunities than it is about Kimbrel...
  13. notin
    That isn't true, but it isn't far off. From 2014-2017 (4 seasons), JD Martinez ranks seventh among all qualified hitters in MLB in OPS. His .936 OPS trails only Trout, Votto, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Harper and Big Papi. If you only look at 2015-2017, his OPS is a little higher (.943), but he still trails the same six names. (Apparently Papi was still considered a qualified hitter over that stretch.) Not second, but still impressive. Especially for a guy who was once released from a last place team while still making minimum wage...
  14. notin
    I believe this was his only appearance in a seventh game of a World Series.
  15. notin
    I thought this would be an easy one. No more guesses? I'll throw out a couple Tom Bolton Bill Lee
  16. notin
    Wheeler also missed 2 1/2 seasons with his injuries. He's pitched 120 innings since 2014, counting this season...
  17. notin
    Velasquez is the only pitcher with options remaining, making him a candidate. Hembree is making a case for himself, however...
  18. notin
    Bringing in Kimbrel was the right move there. If you want to get out of that situation, you use the pitcher most likely to get the job done. The only problem was that Kimbrel sucked. I didn't even mind the use of Barnes to start the inning. He was facing the bottom of the order. If he can't be trusted to handle the opposition's weaker hitters, what is his role?
  19. notin
    Really it also depends on the willingness of the Sox to take on money, right? And Ross is a complete wild card after missing so much time. If he follows the same career trajectory as his brother, he may not have it so easy returning to prior levels of production...
  20. notin
    Maybe not, but then Devin Mesoraco (-0.2 fWAR in the past 3 seasons) was enough to get Matt Harvey (5.4 fWAR in the past 3 seasons).. Ross is good, but his value itself is hurt by his missed time. When the season starts in 2019, he will have not pitched for a season and a half. And he will be eligible for arbitration, putting his salary maybe around $5-6mill. The Nationals may or may not trade Ross, and might get better offers than Swihart. But right now, Ross is the less risky of the two, due to his combination of health and potential salary...
  21. notin
    Neither Barnes nor Hembree is much more than an average reliever. If the Sox want to depend on their bullpen - a necessity in today's game - they need more reliable arms in there than just Kimbrel, Kelly and Smith...
  22. notin
    If you need to bring in Kimbrel to face the 9th place hitter, it does speak volumes about Barnes...
  23. notin
    Swihart should have been dealt in ST when teams were interested. Now, on the other hand, Deven Mesoraco, who has played 115 games in the past 4 seasons combined, was just dealt for Matt Harvey, in a rare trade where Harvey would be considered the durable guy. While Harvey isn't much, it does leave some hope that some team might be interested in Swihart. Maybe he, too, can fetch a talented pitcher who can't stay on the field. Swihart for Joe Ross?
  24. notin
    A healthy Price would be a very good thing. But in the event that he is going to be an oft-injured pitcher with a lot of nagging injuries here and there, I wonder (re: doubt) if the Sox would consider moving him to the closer role for the remainder of his deal after Kimbrel departs. Certainly he is overpaid for the role. But he is also overpaid for a guy with an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.40. He will be tough to replace in the rotation. In theory. Honestly, how much would it cost to replace his 0.5 fWAR through 7 starts? Jason Hammel is doing it right now for an AAV of less than a quarter of Price's cost...
  25. notin
    There is how we view things differently. I was hoping he would pitch well and opt out. In no way was he going to be worth that kind of money for the entire 7 years at his age. Not sure any pitcher has even been that good for that long at his age. The opt out was the only saving grace to that potential albatross. Take the 3 good years and wish him luck. But the combination of his health, his performance and the downturn of the free agent market last year have made his return as certain as death and taxes...
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