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Everything posted by notin
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But if only the fans are upset, that agrees with my point. I think none of us have the entire story...
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I’m not so sure, and a few people posted links about how overblown that whole situation was...
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Well there is a certain wildly unpopular free agent shortstop that Dombrowski has reportedly tried to acquire before...
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I expect at least one of Dalbec or Chavis to be in MLB next year. But not in Boston...
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4 years for a pitcher whose had TJ TWICE????!?!?! Ignoring health and basing a contract on postseason numbers sounds like the exact logic that justified signing Pablo Sandoval...
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Hasn’t that been covered to death by the media as something fans seem to be overreacting to way more than the players are?
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The Sox do have a lot of those players for 2019 already. As Dombrowski is a big time trader and really, has not much in the farm to deal, who will he put on the market? I think, besides one or both of Chavis and Dalbec, the Sox might entertain deals for Rodriguez and Swihart. A third possibility is Bogaerts, but interest might be lessened once the Cubs make Addison Russell available at a discount...
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Game 2 of the World Series is October 24. He should have 5 days rest by then. So yes he does...
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And there is precedent for not making a pitcher with injury issues a closer. The Cubs tried to go that route with Brandon Morrow this season. And this year, the Cubs might be the biggest suitors for Kimbrel, even if/when they sign Machado or Harper...
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Or Benintendi and Mookie with the gloves. Let's no ignore that aspect of player contributions...
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But that wasn't the question. The question was "Is he closer to Rivera than he is to Papelbon"? At age 30, Kimbrel has been worth 19.1 fWAR At age 30, Rivera was worth about 12 fWAR. But he also only had 4 seasons as a closer under his belt and fWAR numbers from the 1990's might be incomplete. Through his first 9 seasons (same number as Kimbrel )as a closer, Rivera was worth 17 fWAR. At age 30, Papelbon was worth 14.2 fWAR by age 30 and 18.8 fWAR through 9 seasons as a closer. To me, Kimbrel looks a lot like Papelbon 2.0, and as the future is unknown, using a close parallel is one way to try to evaluate it. (It's actually the basis of the entire PECOTA projection system.)
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And that brings another possibility. Is Kimbrel closer to being Rivera than he is to bring Papelbon? It certainly is much easier to be the next Papelbon, which is why I lean that way. Kimbrel’s entire second half this year was subpar for him. Was this just a blip? Or is it the start of a decline? It might cost $100mill or more to find out. That’s a lofty price tag even if it’s just a blip...
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Kimbrel might have a Cooperstown career ahead of him, but hopefully the decision to resign him and then hope he does isn’t going to be made based on his World Series performance. But he is a name player; he will get the contract he wants. And he very well might set records. Right now he looks like Papelbon 2.0. Papelbon went out after a great World Series for Boston in his age 30 season (same as Kimbrel right now) and also wanted to be the highest paid closer ever. The Sox passed. Now, we’re the Sox right or wrong to pass on Papelbon?
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The Brewers had the best record in the NL with no starting pitching. This isn’t the Orioles’ staff we’re talking about...
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Flash in the pan does seem more likely. The Sox will have 2 more minimum wage years to determine which one he is...
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He’s already been in pinstripes and he spent most of that entire tenure on the disabled list. Teams going higher than 2 years need to be prepared for him missing a full season’s worth of games. Unless some team signs him to make him a closer. The reduced workload might agree with his arm...
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Why? Kimbrel’s next contract is about what he can give you for the next 4-5 years, not about what he did for one week in October...
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Me either. Kimbrel will certainly ask at least double what Eovaldi does. And it will be easier to find another closer than starter at that price...
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Who learns to spell anymore? You posting from an Etch and Sketch or something? What’s next? You going to start forgetting phone numbers?
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Slow down. He might not even have 6 years left in his career...
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Most Vanquished Player?
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I’m honestly questioning this. He still has major health reasons that will suppress his price tag. This is s guy who missed all of 2017, after all. Much like how no one ever gave a long term commitment to Brett Anderson, Eovaldi is probably looking at 2 years, which is the current trend for oft-injured pitchers...
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Yeah but I can’t get to LA for a game. Milwaukee is less than an hour away. Go Brew Crew !!
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Exactly. And comparing a relief pitcher whose entire career was relatively coddled to the relievers from the 60’s and 70’s isn’t fair. And comparing those old relievers to relief pitchers from the 1930’s and 40’s - where relief pitchers were starters in between starts - is equally misleading...
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Part of that might be because no manager has gone to his bullpen faster than Counsell. And I don’t mean this postseason; I mean in postseason history...
