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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. In the last 16 games, that defensive replacement has a 1.047 OPS. Can we wait until he is struggling before complaining about him struggling?
  2. He was in A ball last week with a batting average inflated by a ludicrous.471 BABIP. He’s not as close as you think...
  3. But he’s not a starter...
  4. And in 18-20% of all his plate appearances. That’s very likely the highest among the top 5 hitters. The 6th hitter is probably the second most likely, but he’s far enough down to not worry about. He should also be getting 54 fewer total plate appearances than the third spot...
  5. While DD did actually try to address the minor league pitching depth issues this off-season, he really didn’t actually sign much to choose from. I think we’ve already seen the best of Ryan Weber...
  6. Groome hasn’t played an MLB game yet at 20???!? What a bust!!
  7. He has struggled, but he also has an MLB track record that isn’t awful..,
  8. Also, he needs to go watch a Seagal movie. Cue up “Sheep Impact”...
  9. According to moon’s numbers, the #3 hitter comes up 44% of the time with 2 outs and no one on in the first inning. But that follows through in the game. If every hitter has an equal chance of leading off an inning, then the leadoff spot comes up 1st another 144 times, with the same percentages. So in the first inning, that means 72 times per a 162 game season, the third hitter comes up with 2 out and none on, and in the following innings does so another 57 times. (I’m using moon’s .333 OBPs, but even if you increase them the numbers don’t vary by much). So that means 129 times per year, the #3 hitter is up with 2 out and no one on. In a 650 PA season, that represents 20% of his plate appearances. If you up the OBP to .400 for both hitters, the number drops to 18.7%. But it’s in the neighborhood of 1/5 of his PA. The argument rests on whether any other spot in the top 5 exceeds that number. And they don’t solely because the lineup is set up in the first inning. In the 80%-ish PA where he does come up with men on, the 4th hitter should also bat unless there is a DP. Which is why the third hitter needs to be capable of avoiding them. The 3 slot isn’t for bad hitters; he should still be one of the best. But because he is more likely than any other hitter in the top 5 to come up with two out and no one on, his run producing opportunities are limited. And he should be able to stay out of double plays...
  10. Why not? This team has Ryan Weber and Josh Taylor on the roster. Demote both (which requires a DFA of Weber, but he will clear waivers) and call up Mejia and Erasmo Ramirez...
  11. When do we get to see Chavis compared to former Mariners top 3b prospect DJ Peterson? Or how about Kyle Seager, who had a .691 OPS through 53 games his first year at the same age as Chavis?
  12. Still wondering when the Sox will give Mejia a chance. His season looks respectable with the exception of one game where he gave up 4ER in 2/3 of an inning...
  13. So at the end of the 2019 season, can the Braves extend a qualifying offer to Keuchel? He is a mid-season acquisition, but not via a trade from another team...
  14. It’s basically a pro-rated qualifying offer...
  15. It all matters. But the only time you can control it is the first inning. And while the 7-8-9 hitters are supposed to be the ones on base in front of the leadoff hitter, the team is going to have a worst hitter. Where should he bat? To me, the ideal spot is last, where he gets the fewest plate appearances...
  16. You give him one more thought than I do...
  17. With Holt and Nunez both hitting, it’s very possible. But part of me questions exactly what Sam Travis brings to a major league team...
  18. I was surprised that didn’t happen months ago. I guess he’s still in the plans...
  19. I do believe Walden, Brasier, Hembree and Taylor do all get credit for holds...
  20. His hiatus was due to no one wanting him to pitch. And he did have an injury with surgery. Wright’s is just due to injury and suspension. It’s easy to forget about Wright, but he still has a chance to contribute...
  21. To be fair to Wright, his hiatus from MLB is shorter thanRyan Brasier’s was last year...
  22. I think you might be right about Kapler. But there are plenty of stories around the internet about how angry Phillips was after the two contracts. Age certainly made a difference, but Phillips came up about $150mill less because the Reds wouldn’t pay for RBIs. And while Phillips whined about it, he did pretty well financially over his career and there will always be good on his table, and no one put a gun to his head to sign a $72mill deal. But it was certainly an instance of teams no longer paying for RBIs like they used to...
  23. Chavis can’t hit anything. If he fell off a cliff he wouldn’t even hit the ground...
  24. Be careful what you wish for. The Sox have 4 guys who fit the career minor leaguer mold, and 3 have been awful...
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