I’d rather have Betts than all of that mediocrity combined.
Whether you like fWAR or not, it’s a good way to discuss the impact of a player.
Betts is worth about 8 wins per season.
A player giving half of that - about 4 wins per season - is going to cost half of that Betts. Betts has been worth 24 fWAR in the past 3 years. Lorenzo Cain has been worth 12. Cain costs $16mill AAV last year, alittlr under half of Betts’ guesstimated salary.
A 10/11 win pitcher is a little vague, but a value of 2.7 fWAR is a good estimate if he throws about 180 IP. Mike Leake (also $16mill AAV) is a good example here
Roll fillers are cheap and provide little if any value. Brock Holt is probably one of the most valuable, giving a ful win above replacement annually. His pre-arb salary is low and his FA cost is TBD. Let’s say it’s $5mill AAV.
Bullpen help is nice, but costly on the free agent market. Cody Allen just got $8mill and looks like a bargain (that’s setup reliever money nowadays). He’s picallly worth about 1 fWAR per season.
So if it comes down to spending $35mill for Betts and 8fWAR or $45mill for Cain, Allen, Leake and Holt and getting 8.7 fWAR, which looks like the better deal? I think the Sox can make up the extra 0.7 fWAR with $10mill.
Now Betts does carry other concerns like length of deal, injuries, drop in production, etc. inherent to putting all your eggs in one basket. But I still take him in that case...