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I was reading one article somewhere that did a study of fWAR accrued by everybteam in recent drafts. The conclusion was that the overwhelming majority came from first round picks. Certainly everything that comes after isn’t luck, but it does appear to be less and inconsistent. The Sox have 5 first round picks in your list. It’s a bit early to give pass/fail grades to Chavis and Groome (although Groome hasn’t given anyone a reason to get excited either), but certainly Benintendi and Kopech have worked out for Boston, even without Kopech ever making the MLB squad. If both Chavis and Groome do pan out, that’s actually a pretty good run of first rounders. Remember, about 30% of all first round picks never play Major League Baseball...

Exactly. And the current plan for reloading is to keep as many of the current young stars as possible. While plenty of fans and some in the media chastised the Sox for not going “all in” in 2019 and bringing back Kimbrel or a close equivalent, I think a big part of the reason was to keep some cash and payroll space available for as many of Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, etc. as possible. I don’t think Porcello is on this list, but he might be. DD has a long history with him...

Weird thought of the day: Somewhere in the USA or Dominican Republic, there is an 8 year old boy who will one day play Major League Baseball against or with Bryce Harper before this contract expires...

The Phillies are making a huge splash this off-season and certainly grabbing headlines. And obviously selling a few tickets. But until this actually translates into wins, the competition for the entertainment dollar of the casual fan isn’t over. If the Phillies start out, say, 20-40, Bryce Harper Mania won’t matter to casual fans, beyond the occasional gripe about how “overrated” Harper has always been...

Bogaerts is the clear shortstop, regardless of how Lin does. If Bogaerts misses time, Lin is certainly more likely to replace him than Chatham, especially for short stretches. But for 2020, it’s a little more wide open. Lin likely has a future in Boston as a utility infielder. Chatham might replace Bogaerts in 2020 or might fall into minor league obscurity for the rest of his career. It’s too early to tell either way...

But how much of these boring offseasons is from owners deciding to pocket money as opposed to GMs holding back to make better baseball decisions? We’re used to offseasons where the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants spend like drunken sailors. None of those teams were heavily involved in free agency this year. The Dodgers and Giants made an attempt at Harper and the Dodgers signed Oollock and brought back Kershaw. But beyond that, those teams were silent, but not because they’re pocketing revenue-sharing. But without those teams, it magnifies the lack of activity from the rest of the league, which in many cases is consistent with most offseasons. Teams act like this in other sports all the time, and really always have in baseball. Why is it a problem now? The big problem comes from Boston, the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Cubs and the Nationals producing good young, cost-controlled major leaguers and not needing free agency. And that they all did it at once just made it look so much worse...

Oh please. Yes you’re very generous with your accolades for other teams signing free agents and spending money . But with Boston - it has to work out and translate into wins. Or do you suddenly have some appreciation for Ben Cherington now? After all, when he signed Hanley and Sandoval, was he or wasn’t he trying to win?

Nothing sells more tickets than winning. Isn’t that what it’s all about? I’m not counting Machado, Arenado and Harper, since they all just signed. But if you look at the 10 largest contracts in MLB history before this off-season, they have resulted in TWO CHAMPIONSHIPS. One was A-Rod in 2009, the other was Price in 2017. Now plenty of these deals have not finished, but I don’t think that number is going up by much. (And hopefully all by Price.) The reason these teams don’t sign star players is the risk. If the star doesn’t carry you to a title or two early in the deal, chances are he will follow that up by dragging your team down late in the deal. Sometimes it comes down to a simple choice - do you want a star player or do you want to win? If you don’t like Harper vs Sizemore, that is what the Pillies bought. Harper has a better Q factor for name recognition and for TV commercials but that doesn’t make his baseball any better and isn’t going to translate to more wins for Philly. Unless you count a win in the war against dandruff...

But more rings...

Actually I think you’re not getting it. Teams are still paying. Some of these salaries even for the non-superstars are outrageous. Yasmani Grandal, for example, is making $18mill next year. That makes him the second highest annual salary in the history of the Brewers (I believe only Ryan Braun made more). The players just aren’t getting the years they want, because history has shown that rarely works out and teams don’t want to be penalized tomorrow for today’s mistake. The Sox didn’t get a closer and that they are still paying Pablo Sandoval is a big part of that. Heck, Carl Crawford’s deal only ended in 17 months ago. Fans might not like it, but a lot of teams are dividing up well over $100mil among 25 employees. That’s not really being cheap. The difference, now if you’re 30, you’re not going to get paid until you’re 35 or 36. If youre26, teams will be willing to put up with 4 or 5 bad years to get 5 to 8 stellar ones. But at some point, Philly won’t like that Harper deal. The length of that contract is 50% of his life, and this guy was a strong parallel for Grady Sizemore to date. Can you imagine giving Grady Sizemore 13 years after HE turned 26 in 2009? He played 313 games over the rest of his career and that contract wouldn’t be over for 4 more years...

So what if he did? Should the Sox cut every player who tries PEDs? MlLB has gone to great lengths to eliminate PEDs from the game, but they will. EVER be eliminated from the minors where there are an abundance of players with nothing to lose. If teams cut or release every minor league PED user, they might find they don’t have enough players left to field minor league teams...

So you’re saying that the owners are being too cheap about their product because they are blatantly refusing to ignore future implications of their bad moves? Saying the casual fan is not interested in fWAR, luxury taxes, etc. is like saying cake enthusiasts are not excited about flour, frosting, eggs, etc. The casual fan wants a winning team, and if heeding fWAR, luxury taxes, etc. are key ingredients, the casual fan will embrace them...

Especially the part about Bagwell flourishing at 3b, a position he never played above AA ball...

I’m concerned about the bullpen, but probably not as worried as Dombrowski, who will possibly get fired if it’s half as disastrous as jacko thinks it will be...

How good does it have to be? It’s not like we finished 8 games out last year or lost in the ALDS or had some other equally sad end to our season...

For me, nothing to do with being former Red Sox and everything to do with him being really good and yet still in no position to break the bank...

I take it that was the money they had budgeted for Yasmani Grandal...

Your boss is an *******.

No. Harmony is right. It’s part of a global conspiracy to cover up the criminal past of Michael Chavis. First, soxprospects.com “conveniently” forgets about Chavis’ past. Then ESPN does. This time tomorrow - CNN won’t be talking about it either. And before you know it, the whole world HAS FORGOTTEN ABOUT IT!!! And Michael Chavis can UNLEASH UNHOLY TERROR ON ALL MLB PITCHING!!!! What? He can anyway? You say he served his punishment and it’s over? Oh. Never mind...

They might just sign Martin Maldonado...

We do have worse pitchers in the bullpen

I’d take Buchholz over a 31yo pitcher with a total of 33 IP in the past 5 seasons...

Ryan Madson is still available...

A BABIP of .197 isn’t really all that unlucky for a guy with a 14% line drive rate. His xBABIP is maybe .240 or so...

But here he could have closed...