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Everything posted by notin
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No one has EVER said WAR is perfect. No one has even implied it. That you infer WAR being perfect is not the fault of the stat. And we’re not talking about scouts doing eye test. We’re talking about fans. Potentially rabid fans, but fans nonetheless. However, the argument “it worked for years” doesn’t fly. Horses served the transportation market for centuries. But I bet you still own a car...
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You did it twice on this thread. In the Jensen/Piersall post, and a later post about some baseball experts who don’t know about baseball-reference.com. (The app doesn’t show post numbers. Apologies.) And the big difference between WAR and the eye test is that WAR has a baseline. The eye test is 100% subjectivity...
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Maybe we need Christian Vazquez to punch Aaron Judge in the face?
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Most people don’t know how to use the eye test. 1) It’s not even for the same criteria as WAR. 2) It doesn’t work for televised baseball. 3) It primarily involves massive imbalances in sample size. So saying “Bradley is a good CF” with the eye test is one thing. But saying “Bradley is a the best defensive CF” or “Bradley is a better defensive CF than Pillar and Kiermeier” with eye test criteria is another. 4) And to be honest, for most people the eye test boils down to “ I saw that guy make an error once.” You can’t denigrate WAR because people might not understand it, but still champion the eye test with that flaw...
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It felt like that had been failing for months
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When you go to the Boss for help to fill some holes, and he says “Play better!!”, it’s not a good sign...
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The safe assumption is the reset. That way an additional spending is a pleasant surprise...
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If it’s as uninteresting as last off-season, I plan on complaining even more....
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Not sure. If they do stay under limits, reportedly they have about $56mill to spend. Out of that they have to pay Betts, Benintendi, ERod, Workman, Bradley, and all the other arb cases. And then fill out the roster. Now if they blow past limits in 2019, maybe. But then Mookie is definitely gone forever. Resetting this season keeps them in the very limited Mookie market...
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Not “penny” pinching. “Years” pinching. Always have been, especially with pitchers. The only thing I liked about the Price deal was the opt out...
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Not sure. But I do know this. All year long I defended Bradley’s weak offense by saying People shouldn’t be so critical of the offense from the ninth spot hitter. But the flip side is, in a time of a potential budget crunch with multiple needs on the roster, you really can’t expect to pay that same ninth spot hitter with questionable offense $10-12 mill...
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I really don’t see the tragedy in fans “misinterpreting” WAR values. It’s not like there is a ironclad right or wrong answer in a lot of cases. Certain people value certain aspects of the game differently, and that can lead to a multitude of responses. Heck some fans think a player’s abilities should be solely measured by rings. Trying to say “WAR is flawed because it allows fans to disagree with me” doesn’t really sound like a critical flaw in that case....
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And yet your argument hinges on these people looking up WAR values?
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Not sure how valuable it has to be. Baseballtradevalues.com, for example, gives him a very low surplus value. He’s in the higher-paid years of his contract. And having a down year. What if Atlanta would take Brian Johnson or Travis Lakins for him?
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Still far too long...
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Might be a different story with his $4mill drop in pay next season...
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Is the pitcher with the better ERA the better pitcher? Know how many people think that’s true? Really this is a flaw with batting average as well. Tons of people think higher BA = better PLAYER (not hitter, player).. Even though that’s not what WAR measures, it’s closer to true with WAR than other stats with that sand flaw...
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By that logic, eye tests data are useless, too. It’s certainly possible for multiple people to watch the same thing and get different results...
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Inciarte’s AAV could be half of what Bradley gets in arbitration. It actually would be a big deal...
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Actually people mention games played all the time
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No it’s not. But it’s also unrealistic to add up runs and expect them to equal wins...
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Wow. Ok. If Player A has 120 hits in 500 AB and Player B has 100 hits in 300 AB, do you think “Wow. Player A is a much better hitter.” Are you seriously saying you’ve never looked at time played for any cumulative stat?
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Seriously?
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Yes because most others wouldn’t get 7 year deals...
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Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...
