notin
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Everything posted by notin
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So you’re saying backup catcher over bullpen? Over 1b? If Wong is the detriment you say, why not simply call up Seby Zavala? -
There is also the option of NOT trading Ryan. He’s not a free agent until 2028 after all…
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And it probably won’t take Garcia to get one. But what about a player with 1+ years of control or more?
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That’s a fairly small and specific role to keep a prospect for. I could see him filling that role, but i wouldn’t let losing out on a weak side outfield platoon stand in the way of a potentially good trade…
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Maybe, If you were the Twins CBO and your job was riding on this trade including what the press said, do you make that trade? Or do you give up 2.5 years of one of the best pitchers in the AL despite pitching in a very weak division? And face the wrath of LaVelle E. Neal III the following morning?
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If they only win X games between now and the deadline, they will take away as much as possible from their MLB roster. And recall Campbell. If they win more than X, whatever Breslow thinks that number is, I think they add a 1b and bullpen help…
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Probably the system. I’m also very hesitant to get worked up about pitchers with 17 IP above A ball. A lot can still go wrong on the way to Boston…
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Don’t blame the reader for misunderstanding the word “never” to mean “within the past 10 years.” Im not even saying the Sox need to deal Tolle here. But I am saying I doubt Minnesota makes the deal without him. But I think this board is prime for some Deadline Disappointment after banning any trade that includes Tolle or Garcia or anyone with potential, and yet still expects a #2 starter to comeback in a deal for Sandlin, Vaughn Grissom and Cooper Criswell. It turns out most teams prefer the single dollar over 4 quarters…
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Is that really true? Most of the rental relievers traded last year went for fairly nondescript fungible minor leaguers I never heard of. Carlos Estevez, for example. The RPs that netted more (e.g. Mark Leiter Jr) had multiple years of control…
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Ryan is one of the best pitchers in MLB right now and under control for 2.5 years. If you’re comfortable with a trade package for him, it’s probably because it isn’t enough…
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While injuries are a concern, it’s a bit unfair to cite them solely for Ryan. Isn’t Tolle equally capable of getting hurt? Im not sure I would deal Tolle for Ryan, either. But I would be very surprised if Minnesota made the deal without him. And certainly not with Mullins in his place. Not like Ryan is a rental…
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The Red Sox have NEVER had a pitching prospect like Tolle? Never? Maybe in recent years, but does never go back far enough to include Lester? Buchholz? Clemens? Tolle might be great, but didnt we also think that about Kopech? Or Hansen? Ryan is among the best in MLB right now. I can understand not wanting to deal Tolle for him. I can understand that being a dealbreaker, too. But let’s not go overboard…
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Evaluating minor leaguers is difficult for anyone. BA is one of the most popular sources for many fans, but if you look at any past Top 100 list, you will find 10-15 guys who peaked at utility infielder. Really any job that involves predicting the future involves being wrong a certain percentage of the time. As for Mullins, not sure how undervalued he is. He is a 24yo LHP who turns 25 n two months and has pitched 33 IP above A ball in which he has 5.3 BB/9. He might go on for a great career, but I am not so sure he is a hot trade commodity in 2025. Certainly not as a secondary piece in a trade for multiple years of a SP already valued at 3.9 bWAR in early July…
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But how valuable is Garcias to Boston? With their current roster, they might not have a starting OF position available until 2030. Sure there will definitely be injuries in that time, but do you keep Garcia around for depth? Or avoid trading him in a potentially meaningful trade just so he can replace Refsnyder on the weak side of a platoon? He’s not available for just anyone but I think he has to be available…
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I assume these are ranked by how easy they will be fill? No .500 team has “backup catcher” as their biggest need…. -
I was just giving BTV values. Tolle has a surplus value of $20 mill. Mullins has a surplus value of $2.3 mill. Minnesota might be willing to accept Mullins along with Sandlin and Duran, but that deal doesn’t work on the BTV model. Maybe it does work on how Minnesota evaluates players. No idea. But I also have my doubts…
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But would you give them Duran, Tolle and Sandlin for Joe Ryan? It’s not an unreasonable trade proposal…
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BTV gives Ryan a surplus value of $69.6 mill and Duran a surplus value of $39.5 mill. In order to make up that difference, the Red Sox would need to include something a long the lines of Peyton Tolle and David Sandlin. Not that I know what Minnesota would be interested in…
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If the Sox get a 1b and a RP, I will be satisfied. SP is tough to acquire in July… -
I think we both understand San Diego’s chances in 2025 - which they clearly have not surrendered - depend heavily on Cease. Rental or not, they won’t trade him unless they fall out of it. And if they do, they might suddenly be less interested in Duran…
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Yes, Hamilton helps both defenses…
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How many of them were even considered legitimate prospects back then?
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San Diego wants Duran, but not to the point of giving up Cease…
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Story has 3 years left ($96mii). Ozuna has 3 months left on his deal..
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Mostly because you have no clue how that tool works. (Hint : it creates a new thread for you when you use it.)
