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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. Look up Barnes. It says he has three blown saves this year. I listed them out earlier in the thread and none were in the ninth inning. The problem is, there is no such thing as a blown hold, so it is listed as a blown save. If you notice in the “elsewhere “ where holds are listed, there is nothing indicating how many were blown. Brasier is also listed as having 2 blown saves. One of these was for Gardner’s grand slam in the 7th inning. A blown hold is listed as a blown save. Regardless of the inning...
  2. No. A hold is basically a save but before the last inning. You don’t get a save, but you do get a blown save if you fail to get a hold. Barnes and Brasier have combined for about 54IP in the ninth inning in their careers. So saying they had 24 ninth inning save chances in 54 career innings seems like a lot for two guys whose careers as closer is limited to 6 overlapping weeks...
  3. No. A hold is a “save situation.” Where are you getting this data?
  4. NO THEY DIDN’T. There is no such stat as a blown hold. As a hold is basically a save situation before the ninth inning, failing to keep a hold is credited with a blown SAVE...
  5. But plenty of them were hold opportunities, unless you think Cora was going to leave a pitcher in for a 3 inning save. Brasier has 2 blown saves this year, but only one was a ninth inning BS. Barnes has 3 blown saves this year, but one was in the 7th inning (against Colorado the other night) and the other two were in the eighth inning. None in the ninth. Actually Barnes and Brasier have been quite effective in the ninth inning traditional closer role. It’s been the earlier innings where they struggle. But Barnes in particular has been handed tougher assignments, like always facing the opposing best hitters. So it’s more understandable that he would have the occasional rough outing...
  6. If you knew it was a blown save, you said the opposite in the post I quoted. Unless you already acknowledged your error...
  7. Really it says more about them as relievers in general than anything related to ninth inning activity...
  8. That is called The Backfire Effect. The more you disprove someone’s belief, the stronger their belief becomes...
  9. Yes it was a blown save. Anytime a reliever loses a lead of 3 runs or less, it’s a blown save, even if it happens in the third inning...
  10. It’s True. I think the biggest reason the Sox haven’t benched Bradley earlier is the absolute lack of other available options that don’t suck...
  11. Again, if the Sox need bullpen depth, they’re going to demote before DFA. When pitchers start coming back, the first moves will be to demote Smith, Weber, and/or Brewer. DFAing Thornburg does nothing since Dombrowski has been hesitant to add a Major League arm with any sort of track record anyway...
  12. 17 innings is enough? He might never come around, but I think a lot of people underestimate how far he has come back from a very difficult problem...
  13. He is leaving starters in beyond limits we see much later in the year...
  14. Big difference between deciding to do it and being required to do it...
  15. We have one person arguing Vazquez needs to be in the lineup everyday, unlike Moreland. Vazquez does have a higher BA, but only 5 more hits and half as many home runs. And in only 18 fewer at bats, which is about 2 per week at this point in the season...
  16. The only good thing about BA is that it’s readily understood and relatable, but this also has lead to some of the worst misconceptions in baseball. And the widespread acceptance of the fact that it lumps every hitter into a very tight range and the excuses people make for this is an immense part of those misconceptions. Even if WAR is too complicated, OBP and SLG are far more informative than BA. Of course, SLG has some of the same stupid exceptions as BA...
  17. The Sox will demote before DFA. Brewer, for example, has options left. He isn’t getting DFAd. But he might go to Pawtucket.
  18. OBP > Batting Average OBP is essentially the “percentage of times the hitter does not make an out.” And it doesn’t have any of the stupid exceptions batting average has...
  19. There’s a big difference between a 2 run single and a 2 run home run. You can’t hit a 2 run single with one man on base...
  20. Batting average tells you everyone basically hits the same. You draw the conclusions on your own. But the reality the the difference between a .280 hitter and a .240 hitter is not that great. One hit every 25 at bats. Over 6 months, that’s only 20 hits. Batting average tells you the whole league gets hits between 20 and 30 percent of the time. That you interpret this to be a wide range is a greater indication of the actual flaw in the stat. By your own admission, small differences show a wide range of ability. That’s an indication of a problem in any type of measuring system. If you took a class in school and the teacher said “This test is worth 100 points, and if you score 90% you get an A, 87% is a B, 84 % is a C and anything below 80% and you fail and have to repeat the class and the teaching staff will bully you on Instagram,” wouldn’t you wonder why that tight range encompassed such a wide variety of outcomes? Yet you accept it with batting average solely out of familiarity. Also you cslll SLG flawed and OPS flawed, but you haven’t yet said what the flaws are...
  21. Not many offensive stats do include stolen bases. There was a stat called “total average” that included SB, CS, and just about everything else from a box score. But it was abandoned for being too cumbersome. Of course, this was in the days before computers. Not sure why it never resurfaced...
  22. Actually batting average measure the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in plate appearances where he doesn’t see four bad pitches, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily bunt runners over or manage to hit a deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than 2 out, unless that runner is slow. It really doesn’t measure much and all it tells you is the overwhelmed majority of players in MLB get a hit between 20% and 30% of the time. And the ones who fall outside that range don’t fall outside by much. I completely disagree on SLG. Yes it actually is a good measure for power. And OPS, while not perfect, has shown itself to be a much more comprehensive and reliable stat for offensive performance. Batting average tells you nothing. It really tells you all hitters are basically equal. SLG and OS are where the hitters desperate...
  23. The rotation has been outstanding lately. To dismiss Brasier’s ineffectiveness so quickly might be a big mistake. The man has almost no track record of success. The Sox bullpen might not be good enough to support this team while waiting to see if Thornburg and Brewer ever come around....
  24. Brasier has only thrown 34 innings in the past 5 years. His track record is less than Thornburg’s. He might not actually be the pitcher DD thought he is...
  25. No. The catching situation is NOT the problem. Having Swihart on the roster won’t give Cora better bullpen options so he doesn’t keep trying to squeeze 8 innings out of starters...
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