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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I think Bello is worth more in a trade, since he didn’t miss a season and also has a pretty favorable contract. But for Boston, he’s easily replaced. His 1.9 fWAR in 166 IP seems bearable for Early, who was worth 1.1 fWAR in only 19 IP. Trading Bello opens a spot in the rotation for the sought-after #2 starter, whatever that is. And with Tolle, Dobbins, Harrison, Perales and Fitts the Sox still have decent SP depth even before the season starts…
  2. notin
    He threw 28 pitches. Wow do we really like to overanalyze those postseason small samples…
  3. notin
    What would be the most surprising yet realistic move the Sox might make this off-season? Obviously signing Tucker would be the most surprising, but I am calling it unrealistic. From a realistic standpoint, maybe trading Bello would have surprised me a couple days ago. Now I’m thinking it feels very likely (based on nothing)…
  4. notin
    They came up with that IBB strategy one plate appearance too late…
  5. notin
    Well, don’t go looking too deeply. It is an assumption as you said. But in the absence of actual feedback from the team, what else do we have to go on? Either of us could make arguments all day long supporting the opposite side. But those are really just opinions and theories. I was explicit in that I was using limited data, but that the Sox had the opportunity to sign both last year is a fact. And that they signed Bregman is a fact. Whether or not it holds true again is conjecture. But it is all we really have with regards to facts…
  6. notin
    Once Springer went down and Bichette was replaced, that Jays lineup looked downright anemic. Almost as weak as the Sox lineup in the last 8 or so innings of the only other 18 inning World Series game back in 2018…
  7. notin
    We do? The Sox have 4 starting outfielders not counting the guy limited to DH. Having 4 starting OFs isnt a bad thing, but it’s not ideal when you only have 2 starting infielders…
  8. notin
    Campbell was pretty bad at 2b. That ship might have sailed. But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…
  9. notin
    Campbell’s had like 230 PA. Hopefully no decision was made on him either way yet…
  10. notin
    Presumably one of Duran or Abreu gets dealt. Pros and cons to both of them. Teams that need OF help and are unlikely to pursue Kyle Tucker include Kansas City, Cleveland and Houston. Philadelphia also could use an OF assuming they don’t get Tucker…
  11. notin
    Cora was the only one to mention 2b, which he did in an article on NESN. But he also never played him there. So it doesn’t look like whether or not Alonso could have played 2b was ever an option. Bregman might have been “last man standing,” but not by much; Alonso signed with the Mets a mere 3 days previous. And since they probably started talks with Bregman more than 72 hours before signing him, Alonso was always there as an option. Maybe they did talk to Pete’s people and at the time, a pillow contract was off the table? Not sure. But the Sox definitely had ample opportunity to talk to both, but we’re far more dedicated in their pursuit of Bregman…
  12. notin
    And they never played Bregman at 2b. While Cora wanted him there, it’s possible that was because he knew a position change wouldn’t fly with Devers. Breslow was all about Bregman at 3b. Could they have signed Alonso for 1b, kept Devers at 3b and moved Casas to DH? Not sure why not. 2b would probably have played out exactly the same in tjis scenario…
  13. notin
    Schwarber might not be back. Until he re-signs with Philly, he is a free agent. (Technically he doesn’t declare until after the World Series, but it’s a foregone conclusion since his optionless deal expired.) Team certainly commit lots of money to DHs. It’s working out quite well for the Dodgers, for example. And whoever signs Schwarber will be commiting a lot of money to a DH…
  14. notin
    Gray also signed very early that off-season. Do we even know if the Sox talked to his people?
  15. notin
    Maybe Cincy trades Lodolo for Duran, but really, I would have no way of knowing how much they want to break up their strength. Im not wild about soft-tossing lefty Bubic, who had several years of mediocrity finally turning into his one productive season that was cut short by injury….
  16. notin
    None of those teams have anyone committed to a DH role. Philly could also return Harper to the OF, where they are very thin. They originally moved him to 1b after TJ surgery a few years ago. Hes probably safe to return…
  17. notin
    A move repeatedly floated at that time by an anonymous astute poster known only as notin…
  18. notin
    For only the cost of some yellow paint, the Sox can change the Fenway ground rules and add a home run line to the Green Monster just above the scoreboard. Much cheaper than signing Pete Alonso…
  19. notin
    Sox Off-Season Trade Bait - Notin Edition* 1. Duran or Abreu and expect flip-flopping regularly on which makes more sense. 2. Brandon Clarke - Most questionable of the top prospects IMO. (Non-40 man status helps his value.) 3. Jhostnyxon “Password” Garcia. Blocked prospect and keeping a BA Top 100 prospect as a fourth OF is a waste, especially in light of other needs. 4. Jedixson Paez - Eligible for Rule 5 draft, but far enough away to not protect. Might be selected based on potential, and if he is selected, his new team might be wise to complete a trade for him and allow him to continue in the minors. *Not affiliated with the Boston Red Sox, who have a long history of eschewing these type of lists from Notin and making up their own mind on things purely out of spite…
  20. notin
    Mayer outhit Campbell’s last ST as well. But Campbell’s signed a reasonable extension…
  21. notin
    Exactly. If (when?) the Sox explore the trade market for SPs, there will be decent pitchers available, but Skenes, Peralta, Greene and (per MLBTR) Lodolo will not be among them. I think the list of available pitchers will include Ryan, Mitch Keller, Sandy Alcantara, Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Sonny Gray, and Jose Berrios (who apparently requested a trade at some point this year per some questionable sources and can opt out after 2026). Skubal might be shopped, but since that means asking Detroit to give up on 2026, I expect the price to be exorbitant…
  22. notin
    I think Hamilton is secure at least until the Rule 5 draft. In terms of roster spots, I don’t think he is fringey at all. Especially compared to Winkowski, Criswell and Grissom. For the Rule 5 draft, the Sox roster will probably have either 39 or 40 players on it. And I think 40 is far more likely. I doubt they select anyone this year…
  23. notin
    Trading fringey 40 man players before the draft is tougher simply because every team has the same limit in the number of roster spots. Even Miami and Pittsburgh are not so eager to dedicate 40 man roster spots to Sogard types ahead of their own prospects. On soxprospects, the Sox have 38 spots filled. They also still have numerous players still listed as being on the 60 day IL, several of whom are strong candidates to be added, including Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Sandoval, Casas, Guerrero and Mayer and some fringey ones including Winckowski, Criswell and Grissom. (Criswell feels like the most likely add of these three, but they might DFA him and try to re-sign him to an MiLB deal.) But several roster spots will open up after the World Series when players declare free agency. Bregman, Refsnyder, Matz, Giolito, May, and Wilson will do this. In early December, the Sox likely add Sandlin and no one else. The long shot might be Noah Song, who is now about 28 years old but did climb through the minors fairly quickly last year. There is no roster crunch….
  24. notin
    The Brewers had the best record in MLB and have an extremely cheap $8mill team option for Peralta. If he is available, it won’t be until July 31st. Ryan has already been available. I see no reason for that to change…
  25. notin
    If the Sox tender Casas, Hes likely in the mix. Especially if he’s not ready opening day. I don’t think teams use the “can’t count on strategy” like it gets thrown around here. If they offer him a deal, which means in many cases, they’re offering him MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, they clearly are counting on him. The Red Sox didn’t offer Roman Anthony numerous millions of dollars so they could not rely on him being a productive hitter. Hes one of the “two big bats” everyone says the Sox need. Book it. As for Casas and his injury history, not sure what folks expect. I’m sure the Sox will sign someone to replace him, but it’s going to be unexciting, like Abraham Toro unexciting. Players like Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell are less likely to sign MiLB deals and wait for injuries…
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