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Exactly. It was the Cubs’ offer that got him to Chicago. Players don’t hire agents to settle personal vendettas for being traded...

Gorkys might be retired...

It might be. He might even have meant salary and not AAV. Unless the CBA only does guaranteed years and then lowers it retroactively if there are option years at a lower value...

No they didn’t. The Sox didn’t miss out on Lester because they traded him. They didn’t bring him back because the Cubs offered more, which happens with nearly every free agent...

If Betts just wants the money, then why? He’s not going to eschew the Six if they make the top offer because he was traded away. Players return to former teams all the time...

Injury history? Last year was the first time. Inciarte played less than 130 games since 2014. Kyle Wright has already made his MLB debut and was BA#39. Muller was in AA last year with a 3.14 ERA at age 21. For one year of Betts, it’s actually a fair deal...

Or just the K/BB, if you’re JoeBreidey....

What if the Sox get a package from Atlanta that includes OF Ender Inciarte, RHP Kyle Wright, and LHP Kyle Muller? Sox get a CF with a $6mill AAV and 2 years of control plus two good pitching prospects. Atlanta gets an MVP-caliber CF who also acts as a bridge to their two elite OF prospects Christian Pache and Drew Waters...

Which is true for all stats. It’s not like we look at a closer with a 2.00 ERA as being equal to a starter with a 2.00 ERA...

There is no substitute for Felipe Lopez. The modern day equivalent is Jed Lowrie, but then the stat name is nowhere near as cool...

Did the Sox make Lester the best offer when he was a free agent, only to get eschewed just because they dealt him?

WAR is a more ambitious adventure than BA or SLG or ERA, all of which have their own flaws and misrepresentations themsleves. Sure there is probably not much difference between a 5 WAR and a 6 WAR player. There also isn't much difference between a .240 hitter and a .280 hitter, but that difference is also viewed with equal disparity. Sportswriters even often do stories about this .240 hitter needs to be replaced with that .280 hitter, despite the difference being hits in a whopping 4% of at-bats. And a lot of those stats where there is "only one way to calculate them," do you think that was ALWAYS the case? Batting average has so many weird conditions, you have to think a few of them were added after the first iteration of the stat. After all batting average represents "the percentage of times a batter gets a hit in a plate appearance where he does not draw a walk, get hit by a pitch, give himself up in an obvious and willing attempt to bunt a runner over, or hit a routine flyball to the outfield with a runner on third and less than two out, allowing the runner to score." You think all of that was in there the first few times someone started calculating batting average? And even then, after all that, it's still glitchy, Why is a sac fly not an at bat that counts towards BA, but it is if the runner gets thrown out at home? Did having a slow runner on third make the hitter somehow worse at the plate? Why is sac fly not an at-bats but an RBI ground out is? These flaws don't seem bother you in BA, but they do bother you in WAR. And check out the number of changes to the SAVE stat over the years. Now THERE is a stat that has had FAR MORE than one way to calculate it. And some of them are still stupid to this day. The only real difference is since most of us grew up with this stats, we accept them, flaws and all. And we believe that they are what they always were, because we have never known them as anything else. WAR is this whole new scary stat we didn't grow up with, and therefore it has to pass the test of being as perfect as the old ones are, even if it is still in it's infancy, and those other stats are really not as perfect as we really think they are. There is more than one entity calculating WAR, which is why many people differentiate the two as though they were different stats. But that is really the fault of one of them unimaginatively naming the stat. No one really ever confused WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) with VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with WAR, despite all essentially doing the same thing, but they at least had different names. Plenty of people preferred WARP over VORP or vice versa for whatever reason, or liked some other stat entirely. And I left out slasher's personal favorite of WAA (Wins Above Average) and Bellhorn's favorite WAFL (Wins Above Felipe Lopez). OK, that last one is not published anywhere and was a joke of mine back on BDC. But all these stats tried to do the same thing. Sure it has flaws. What doesn't? Giving credence to WAR despite that it does not always agree with what we see is like giving credence to science. Science is often viewed as fact, despite what it really is is "today's best educated guess" and any part of it can be refuted or disproved tomorrow. The same is actually true for WAR. Or WARP. Or WAA. But not WAFL, which was perfect. Until Felipe retired.

He opted out.

The Sox do need to move one of the SP's. I think Eovaldi is the asiest to move. Plenty of teams were in on him a year ago, and while he spend most of 2019 injured and recovering, that was not anything new and they were all aware of his history before last year. But that didn't dissuade them. I'm not wild about Choo and Odor, but I would deal Eovaldi for both and take the $3mill savings to start with...

There were defintely other intersted teams. Arizona was mentioned quite a bit. Obviously not as interested in the Red Sox. But they were the early off-season favorite to land Martinez as he established himself as a bit of a legend there in less than half a season. Dombrowski had to come as close as he could to Martinez' crazy early demands while still paying as little as possible to make Boston the more attractive option. It's not always about bidding against other teams. A GM also has to make sure a player gets a contract he is comfortable with, because otherwise that player can be very distracted about his deal despite it being the best offer. It's not like we've never seen players complain about their contracts before. It happens in every sport...

Are yuo going to rip the Victorino deal? The same guy who has maintained it's wrong to say Dombrowski "decimated" or "destroyed" the farm system because we got a ring? The Flyin' Hawaiian was amazing in that championship season of 2013, and rightly even earned MVP votes.

But not for crazy years. Clayton Kershaw dd sign a contract with an insane $31mill AAV, but only for 3 years!!! Same AAV as Price, but which deal is better?

WAR is not perfect, but it is neutral. That alone gives it a leg up on anything else to compare players...

MLBTR predicts a 1 year $6mill deal for Calhoun. One thing that will hurt him is he is a bit on the older side for a fist time free agent, so I would be surprised if anyone gave him aas much as 3 years. If the Sox trade Betts, Calhoun and Yasiel Puig (1 year $8mill prediction on MLBTR) might be on the Sox radar for RF. Puig is obviously the better player, but neither is a consistent producer and Puig has a reputation for being a bit on the insane side. If the right moves are made to get under the tax line, the Sox are going to sign a free agent or two. Two other names (not counting Scooter Gennett, who has his own thread) they might consider that did not make the Top 50 Free Agent list include Hector Rondon and Jonathan Schoop. Schoop is a power-hitting/weak bat/great glove infielder who happens to be one of a very small number of Dutch islanders playing in MLB, and has played on Dutch national teams with Xander Bogaerts. (Andrelton Simmons and Jurickson Profar are the other Dutch islanders.) If a reunion with any of his Dutch National Team teammates means anything to Schoop, Boston and Anaheim are his prime options...

Not for S5

It's tough to tell with these GMs who are used to small money. Dan Duquette came to boston with a reputation for building farm systems and being successful with no budget. Yet when he came to Boston, he suddenly lost his spendthrift ways and started doling out some of the biggest contracts in history at the time. Andrew Friedman left Tampa with the same reputation, but has actually been a lot more of a moderate spender. He still drops a lot of coin on his payroll, but for the most part, it has been to retain players rather than drunken sailor spending on free agents. And even then, his contracts are comparably small. Kershaw didn't get a 10 year deal, for example...

I'm not sure. But why is WAR the only stat you think that is a flaw in?

I think the Sox and their fans will find that pretty much every available bat worthy of DH consideration is probably a better option in the field than Martinez. And while Martinez might want to play some defense, he knew what he was getting when he decided not to opt out. He might be happier with a DH role than we realize...

If these are the names involved, Thames already owns a 1b glove. It seems silly to rotate him to DH and JD to 1b. I actually like Calhoun as a player when he is on. When he is that high OBP, good power, rifle-armed right fielder. If Betts goes, he would be a good solution, but I think the price tag might not work out...

I was drawing a parallel and trying to elicit thoughts. So do you believe in lineup protection and that it impacts batting average?